Global equity markets endured their worst week since March, spooked by anxiety about tomorrow's US election and fears of a long dark winter dominated by Covid-19 and the return of economic lockdowns.
With both concerns coming to a head last week, the Dow dropped 6.5 per cent and the S&P 500 was 5.5 per cent lower. However, with market sentiment dependent on such volatile and unpredictable issues, the scope also exists for equally sharp recoveries should the market’s worst fears fail to materialise.
Certainly, the backdrop of rising Covid-19 cases has reset market sentiment to expect the worst in the coming months, France and Germany last week reintroducing national lockdowns and the UK to follow this week.
The International Monetary Fund upgraded many of its economic projections just over a fortnight ago, but some of these forecasts are already getting revised down again, even as US third-quarter gross domestic product bounced back, with growth rising 33.1 per cent on an annualised basis, up from the second quarter’s 31.4 per cent contraction.
The more immediate concern, however, is the US election. Markets had been assuming some form of a “blue wave”, or a Democrat clean sweep in which they take control of both Houses of Congress and the White House. This would underpin a reflation trade based on continued fiscal and monetary policy support and less chaotic policymaking, especially over trade.
Infrastructure spending in particular would be expected to get a boost, and it may even hasten a more coherent US response to the coronavirus. Yields have perked up in recent weeks on this assumption, with the 10-year Treasury reaching above 0.80 per cent, and with the yield curve steepening.
However, even with former vice president Joe Biden leading in both the national opinion polls and in a number of key swing states, memories of President Donald Trump’s surprise 2016 victory are still vivid. With hours to go, nothing can be taken for granted. The markets are understandably fearful of an outcome that is tight enough to see a contested result, leading to months of uncertainty.
Such a scenario would see a flight to safety, bringing yields lower and flattening the yield curve. It would also cause a surge into other safe havens and create volatility across the board. The Federal Reserve would probably also have to act, and perhaps fortuitously it is meeting this week. Should the election produce such an outcome, it could be pressured to expand its quantitative easing programme again.
Given how much negativity was priced in last week, however, it is probably worth considering the upside risks should the election outcome turn out relatively smoothly after all.
US earnings results in the third quarter have actually been relatively good, with 86 per cent of S&P companies beating estimates and anticipation of further stimulus measures would likely see a swift reversal in sentiment. Most analyst projections envisage a retest of the previous S&P high of 3,588 on a three- to six-month horizon.
With market sentiment dependent on such volatile issues, the scope also exists for equally sharp recoveries should the market's worst fears fail to materialise
Sector-wise, green energy stocks, which have outperformed the market since June, would continue to thrive on a “blue wave”, while fossil fuel-based energy stocks would likely underperform. The IT sector may face some headwinds, and financials may have to cope with new regulations, but mainstream stocks should do well.
Commodity prices in general may also be underpinned by the likelihood of more environmentally focused regulations limiting supply and an expected rise in demand thanks to the economic recovery once the pandemic has passed.
So, all roads still lead back to the pandemic and will also depend on the outcome of the election this week. Given the lack of success in containing the virus through lockdowns to date, the onus remains on the discovery of a viable vaccine to deliver a sustainable recovery next year.
Approaching winter in the middle of a second Covid-19 wave, it is difficult to imagine such a recovery taking shape right now, but if a contested US election is avoided, then the prospect of a brighter 2021 once a vaccine is found should be little bit easier to embrace.
Tim Fox is a prominent regional economist and financial market analyst
Company profile
Name: Thndr
Started: October 2020
Founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: pre-seed of $800,000
Funding stage: series A; $20 million
Investors: Tiger Global, Beco Capital, Prosus Ventures, Y Combinator, Global Ventures, Abdul Latif Jameel, Endure Capital, 4DX Ventures, Plus VC, Rabacap and MSA Capital
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
UAE squad
Rohan Mustafa (captain), Ashfaq Ahmed, Ghulam Shabber, Rameez Shahzad, Mohammed Boota, Mohammed Usman, Adnan Mufti, Shaiman Anwar, Ahmed Raza, Imran Haider, Qadeer Ahmed, Mohammed Naveed, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Stree
Producer: Maddock Films, Jio Movies
Director: Amar Kaushik
Cast: Rajkummar Rao, Shraddha Kapoor, Pankaj Tripathi, Aparshakti Khurana, Abhishek Banerjee
Rating: 3.5
So what is Spicy Chickenjoy?
Just as McDonald’s has the Big Mac, Jollibee has Spicy Chickenjoy – a piece of fried chicken that’s crispy and spicy on the outside and comes with a side of spaghetti, all covered in tomato sauce and topped with sausage slices and ground beef. It sounds like a recipe that a child would come up with, but perhaps that’s the point – a flavourbomb combination of cheap comfort foods. Chickenjoy is Jollibee’s best-selling product in every country in which it has a presence.
The five pillars of Islam
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
Results:
Men’s wheelchair 200m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 27.14; 2. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 27.81; 3. Rheed McCracken (AUS) 27.81.
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Teaching in coronavirus times
BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Bert van Marwijk factfile
Born: May 19 1952
Place of birth: Deventer, Netherlands
Playing position: Midfielder
Teams managed:
1998-2000 Fortuna Sittard
2000-2004 Feyenoord
2004-2006 Borussia Dortmund
2007-2008 Feyenoord
2008-2012 Netherlands
2013-2014 Hamburg
2015-2017 Saudi Arabia
2018 Australia
Major honours (manager):
2001/02 Uefa Cup, Feyenoord
2007/08 KNVB Cup, Feyenoord
World Cup runner-up, Netherlands
Adele: The Stories Behind The Songs
Caroline Sullivan
Carlton Books
RESULTS
6.30pm: Maiden Dh 165,000 1,600m
Winner: Superior, Connor Beasley (jockey), Ahmad bin Harmash (trainer)
7.05pm: Handicap Dh 185,000 2,000m
Winner: Tried And True, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
7.40pm: Maiden Dh 165,000 1,600m
Winner: Roy Orbison, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
8.15pm
Handicap Dh 190,000 1,400m
Winner: Taamol, Dane O’Neill, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
8.50pm
Handicap Dh 175,000 1,600m
Winner: Welford, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
9.25pm: Handicap Dh 175,000 1,200m
Winner: Lavaspin, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
10pm: Handicap Dh 165,000 1,600m
Winner: Untold Secret, Xavier Ziani, Sandeep Jadhav
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Saturday (UAE kick-off times)
Cologne v Union Berlin (5.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Borussia Dortmund (5.30pm)
Hertha Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm)
Paderborn v Werder Bremen (5.30pm)
Wolfsburg v Freiburg (5.30pm)
Bayern Munich v Borussia Monchengladbach (8.30pm)
Sunday
Mainz v Augsburg (5.30pm)
Schalke v Bayer Leverkusen (8pm)
The Baghdad Clock
Shahad Al Rawi, Oneworld
The specs: 2018 Dodge Durango SRT
Price, base / as tested: Dh259,000
Engine: 6.4-litre V8
Power: 475hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 640Nm @ 4,300rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.7L / 100km
The Saudi Cup race card
1 The Jockey Club Local Handicap (TB) 1,800m (Dirt) $500,000
2 The Riyadh Dirt Sprint (TB) 1,200m (D) $1.500,000
3 The 1351 Turf Sprint 1,351m (Turf) $1,000,000
4 The Saudi Derby (TB) 1600m (D) $800,000
5 The Neom Turf Cup (TB) 2,100m (T) $1,000,000
6 The Obaiya Arabian Classic (PB) 2,000m (D) $1,900,000
7 The Red Sea Turf Handicap (TB) 3,000m (T) $2,500,000
8 The Saudi Cup (TB) 1,800m (D) $20,000,000
Turning%20waste%20into%20fuel
%3Cp%3EAverage%20amount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20at%20DIC%20factory%20every%20month%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EApproximately%20106%2C000%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAmount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20from%201%20litre%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%20%3Cstrong%3E920ml%20(92%25)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETime%20required%20for%20one%20full%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%20used%20cooking%20oil%20to%20biofuel%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EOne%20day%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EEnergy%20requirements%20for%20one%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%201%2C000%20litres%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%96%AA%20Electricity%20-%201.1904%20units%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Water-%2031%20litres%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Diesel%20%E2%80%93%2026.275%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Women%E2%80%99s%20Asia%20Cup
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20fixtures%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESun%20Oct%202%2C%20v%20Sri%20Lanka%3Cbr%3ETue%20Oct%204%2C%20v%20India%3Cbr%3EWed%20Oct%205%2C%20v%20Malaysia%3Cbr%3EFri%20Oct%207%2C%20v%20Thailand%3Cbr%3ESun%20Oct%209%2C%20v%20Pakistan%3Cbr%3ETue%20Oct%2011%2C%20v%20Bangladesh%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20squad%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EChaya%20Mughal%20(captain)%2C%20Esha%20Oza%2C%20Kavisha%20Kumari%2C%20Khushi%20Sharma%2C%20Theertha%20Satish%2C%20Lavanya%20Keny%2C%20Priyanjali%20Jain%2C%20Suraksha%20Kotte%2C%20Natasha%20Cherriath%2C%20Indhuja%20Nandakumar%2C%20Rishitha%20Rajith%2C%20Vaishnave%20Mahesh%2C%20Siya%20Gokhale%2C%20Samaira%20Dharnidharka%2C%20Mahika%20Gaur%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%C2%A0specs%20
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Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
