Continued weakness in the US dollar, to which most Gulf currencies are pegged, could lead to a drop in remittances by expatriates in the UAE and wider region, experts say.
The dollar is on track for its weakest monthly performance since November 2022, amid worries about trade policies under US President Donald Trump and investors fleeing US assets.
“The effects of a weaker dollar are currently being absorbed. If the dollar weakness persists, then we could see a longer-lasting impact on remittances,” Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Bank, told The National.
“That could lead to some behavioural shifts for foreign workers in the UAE and Saudi Arabia remitting money to their home country, such as the Philippines, Egypt or Pakistan.”
The value of what people get for their dirhams or riyals in their home currencies will be much smaller. Hence they may send less money back home or wait for the exchange rate to improve, she said.
However, the bigger concern would be a reduced inflow of foreign workers into Gulf economies because they may find better opportunities at home or in other countries where currencies are stronger.
It will also result in wage pressures on companies in the Gulf, but “I don't think we're there yet”, Ms Chanana added.
The dollar index is down about 9 per cent since the inauguration of Mr Trump as the administration’s plans to impose tariffs on US trading partners have rattled investors and hurt financial markets.
Foreign exchange volatility
Many of the expatriates in the UAE follow a “regular pattern” of remitting money back home to support their families, said Hasan Al Fardan, chief executive of Al Fardan Exchange.
“As a result, the flow of remittances along these corridors tends to remain stable and is generally less sensitive to fluctuations in foreign exchange rates,” he said.
“However, when it comes to large-ticket payment flows, we do observe an impact from foreign exchange volatility. Remitters often take advantage of favourable exchange rates, aiming to get more money per dirham when transferring larger sums. This behaviour is particularly noticeable in corporate payments as well, where we see a trend of businesses timing higher-value transactions to benefit from foreign exchange movements.”
Al Fardan Exchange has observed a “measured approach” by some expatriates across income groups when it comes to timing their remittances, particularly in periods of currency fluctuation.
“We remain confident in the resilience of the remittance sector under current macroeconomic conditions,” Mr Al Fardan said, adding that the rise in digital adoption is expected to keep remittance volumes strong through the rest of the year.
Mohammad Raafi Hossain, chief executive and co-founder of Fasset, a UAE company that offers blockchain-enabled remittances, said, on an individual-per-transaction basis, first-quarter remittances are down by about 5 per cent to 6 per cent annually on their platform. But the overall flow of cross-border money flow in the same time period is up over 10 per cent, mainly driven by small and medium enterprises.
It’s business as usual now but “we are waiting to see the final decision by the US administration on their 90-day tariff pause”, he said.
He cited how a weaker dollar helps exports to other markets in some cases. There's “probably significant activity” in corridors that can compete better with a weaker dollar.
“No one is more well-positioned to take advantage of a reorganisation of trade than the UAE,” he said. “From a UAE perspective, if anything, tariffs are probably a net gain.”
What's driving dollar weakness
Saxo Bank’s Ms Chanana attributed the weakness in the US dollar to the fading of US exceptionalism, which she believes has persisted for too long.
There are concerns that the US economy could be entering a recession, if not a slowdown in growth. That takes away some growth from the US dollar, she explains.
When it comes to large-ticket payment flows, we do observe an impact from FX volatility
Hasan Al Fardan,
chief executive, Al Fardan Exchange
There are also questions around the independence of the US federal Reserve, which has been one of the anchors of the US economy.
“As we continue to price in the impact of tariffs, there could be reasons for the US dollar’s valuation premium to continue to erode. However, I don't think we're at a point where we need to be concerned about whether or not the US dollar can be the global reserve currency,” Ms Chanana said.
“It is an environment where the USD and US assets will be less of an anchor for global markets, but they will still be an anchor. People want to move out from US equities and US Treasuries to diversify into other regions, because we are facing a new global economic order which is much more fragmented than in the past decades.”
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Iraq negotiating over Iran sanctions impact
- US sanctions on Iran’s energy industry and exports took effect on Monday, November 5.
- Washington issued formal waivers to eight buyers of Iranian oil, allowing them to continue limited imports. Iraq did not receive a waiver.
- Iraq’s government is cooperating with the US to contain Iranian influence in the country, and increased Iraqi oil production is helping to make up for Iranian crude that sanctions are blocking from markets, US officials say.
- Iraq, the second-biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, pumped last month at a record 4.78 million barrels a day, former Oil Minister Jabbar Al-Luaibi said on Oct. 20. Iraq exported 3.83 million barrels a day last month, according to tanker tracking and data from port agents.
- Iraq has been working to restore production at its northern Kirkuk oil field. Kirkuk could add 200,000 barrels a day of oil to Iraq’s total output, Hook said.
- The country stopped trucking Kirkuk oil to Iran about three weeks ago, in line with U.S. sanctions, according to four people with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be identified because they aren’t allowed to speak to media.
- Oil exports from Iran, OPEC’s third-largest supplier, have slumped since President Donald Trump announced in May that he’d reimpose sanctions. Iran shipped about 1.76 million barrels a day in October out of 3.42 million in total production, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
- Benchmark Brent crude fell 47 cents to $72.70 a barrel in London trading at 7:26 a.m. local time. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was 25 cents lower at $62.85 a barrel in New York. WTI held near the lowest level in seven months as concerns of a tightening market eased after the U.S. granted its waivers to buyers of Iranian crude.
Yuki Means Happiness
Alison Jean Lester
John Murray
If you go
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Nairobi, with fares starting from Dh1,695. The resort can be reached from Nairobi via a 35-minute flight from Wilson Airport or Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, or by road, which takes at least three hours.
The rooms
Rooms at Fairmont Mount Kenya range from Dh1,870 per night for a deluxe room to Dh11,000 per night for the William Holden Cottage.
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The low down on MPS
What is myofascial pain syndrome?
Myofascial pain syndrome refers to pain and inflammation in the body’s soft tissue. MPS is a chronic condition that affects the fascia (connective tissue that covers the muscles, which develops knots, also known as trigger points).
What are trigger points?
Trigger points are irritable knots in the soft tissue that covers muscle tissue. Through injury or overuse, muscle fibres contract as a reactive and protective measure, creating tension in the form of hard and, palpable nodules. Overuse and sustained posture are the main culprits in developing trigger points.
What is myofascial or trigger-point release?
Releasing these nodules requires a hands-on technique that involves applying gentle sustained pressure to release muscular shortness and tightness. This eliminates restrictions in connective tissue in orderto restore motion and alleviate pain. Therapy balls have proven effective at causing enough commotion in the tissue, prompting the release of these hard knots.
Company Profile
Founder: Omar Onsi
Launched: 2018
Employees: 35
Financing stage: Seed round ($12 million)
Investors: B&Y, Phoenician Funds, M1 Group, Shorooq Partners
Opening day UAE Premiership fixtures, Friday, September 22:
- Dubai Sports City Eagles v Dubai Exiles
- Dubai Hurricanes v Abu Dhabi Saracens
- Jebel Ali Dragons v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Dubai Creek Open in numbers
- The Dubai Creek Open is the 10th tournament on this year's Mena Tour
- It is the first of five events before the season-concluding Mena Tour Championship
- This week's field comprises 120 players, 21 of which are amateurs
- 15 previous Mena Tour winners are competing at Dubai Creek Golf and Yacht Club
Indoor Cricket World Cup Dubai 2017
Venue Insportz, Dubai; Admission Free
Day 1 fixtures (Saturday)
Men 1.45pm, Malaysia v Australia (Court 1); Singapore v India (Court 2); UAE v New Zealand (Court 3); South Africa v Sri Lanka (Court 4)
Women Noon, New Zealand v South Africa (Court 3); England v UAE (Court 4); 5.15pm, Australia v UAE (Court 3); England v New Zealand (Court 4)
Day 1 results:
Open Men (bonus points in brackets)
New Zealand 125 (1) beat UAE 111 (3)
India 111 (4) beat Singapore 75 (0)
South Africa 66 (2) beat Sri Lanka 57 (2)
Australia 126 (4) beat Malaysia -16 (0)
Open Women
New Zealand 64 (2) beat South Africa 57 (2)
England 69 (3) beat UAE 63 (1)
Australia 124 (4) beat UAE 23 (0)
New Zealand 74 (2) beat England 55 (2)
Drivers’ championship standings after Singapore:
1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes - 263
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari - 235
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes - 212
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull - 162
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari - 138
6. Sergio Perez, Force India - 68
Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Married Malala
Malala Yousafzai is enjoying married life, her father said.
The 24-year-old married Pakistan cricket executive Asser Malik last year in a small ceremony in the UK.
Ziauddin Yousafzai told The National his daughter was ‘very happy’ with her husband.
Monster
Directed by: Anthony Mandler
Starring: Kelvin Harrison Jr., John David Washington
3/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Results
6.30pm: The Madjani Stakes (PA) Group 3 Dh175,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Aatebat Al Khalediah, Fernando Jara (jockey), Ali Rashid Al Raihe (trainer).
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Down On Da Bayou, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
7.40pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Dubai Avenue, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: My Catch, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Dubai Creek Mile (TB) Listed Dh265,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Secret Ambition, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Golden Goal, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
RESULTS
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Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENadeera%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERabih%20El%20Chaar%20and%20Reem%20Khattar%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECleanTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20About%20%241%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHope%20Ventures%2C%20Rasameel%20Investments%20and%20support%20from%20accelerator%20programmes%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company%20profile
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Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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1.
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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7.
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
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