How should you posture your stocks now? My 2025 forecast points to a stunningly strong, Europe-led year, with excessively dour European sentiment helping stocks with positive surprises ahead.
To capitalise on this, portfolio positioning is key – with stark differences from recent years. Let me show you what I mean.
While managing any portfolio, anytime, anywhere, always remember rule number one: Use a benchmark. Always! What is that? Any big, broad, market capitalisation-weighted index – one giving greater clout to stocks with greater market value. (Avoid “price-weighted” indexes like America’s Dow or Japan’s Nikkei, which both weigh constituents solely by share price.)
Broader benchmarks maximise opportunities and diversification. Example: the MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI) includes more than 2,500 stocks across 23 developed markets and 24 emerging markets, including the UAE. That becomes your blueprint. How you vary from it sets your trade-off of risk relative to the global market versus your potential upside.
The world’s regional weightings may surprise you. Including Japan, the Asia-Pacific region overall is only about 16 per cent of the world’s market value. Europe is just 15 per cent, while America comprises a whopping 65 per cent. The rest? Mostly Canada, the Middle East and Latin America. Use these weights as your baseline, then tweak to fit your world view.
Hence, even in a Europe-led year, diversifying means having many of your stocks from outside Europe. Remember, you – and I – can always be wrong! Diverging too much from your benchmark ramps up risk. So, overweight Europe and underweight America. But don’t go wild.
Picking within these geographies is key. In 2023 and last year, the US led. Why? Big growth-orientated stocks within tech and tech-like communication services sectors comprise 39 per cent of US market cap, dwarfing the rest of the world’s 16 per cent. This turbocharged US returns. Such firms are less than 9 per cent of Europe’s market cap, though. No turbocharge.
Europe has few growth stocks overall, outside luxury goods … and those struggled last year as customers cut back – particularly in Asia. While world stocks returned 17.5 per cent overall last year (in USD), luxury goods stocks fell 9.5 per cent. That and a lack of big, growthy tech meant Europe lagged big time the past two years – returning a total of 22.2 per cent (in USD) in 2023 and 2024, while US stocks soared 57.6 per cent.
Now, that changes. As Europe leads, its dominant sectors and styles will soar. Europe is mostly value-orientated stocks – cyclical stocks that lead when economic expectations are too dour. That is now, as my forecast showed.
Financials and industrials – 41 per cent of European market cap – are offensive value heavyweights. Value is also scattered throughout consumer discretionary (think autos) and health care. These categories are your offensive value menu.
Where to seek exposure? Britain has ample financials – 15 per cent in banks alone! France, Italy, Spain and Switzerland offer more. Autos? Think Germany, Italy and France. Industrials, meanwhile, make up 18 per cent of European market cap. Germany, Sweden, Britain and France have the most exposure.
Health care can also provide offensive value, but not always. Categories like medical devices and pharmaceutical firms tilt towards growth-orientated. So be choosy, focusing on the big health care heavyweights in Denmark, Britain and Switzerland.
When Europe and value lead globally, value also leads in the huge swath of the world stock market that is America. It happened in the mid-2000s bull market. And during Europe’s brief 2012 leadership burst as the eurozone rebounded from its sovereign debt crisis. And now!
Through March 24, Europe is up 13.4 per cent year to date in USD, trouncing the ACWI’s 1.5 per cent. US stocks are down 1.8 per cent in USD, with US value up 3.2 per cent and US growth down 6.1 per cent. US tech is down more. It is a huge risk to skip America totally … too big. So, tilt your American stocks towards value.
Everywhere worldwide, dial down tech and growth-orientated categories and overweight value … maybe 65 per cent value and 35 per cent growth (to not take too much risk against the world).
Categories doing well in Europe should also do well globally. Japan offers oodles of autos and industrials. Hong Kong is 50 per cent financials by market cap!
But not all value is created equal. Consumer staples, utilities and real estate are defensive areas, likely to lag in any bull market year. Energy and materials likely lag, too. They are value heavyweights, but both move with oil and commodity prices. Abundant supply and slow-growing global demand are headwinds for them. Hence, their recent, sentiment-fuelled global leadership looks fleeting.
Own some in case things go awry. But focus on offensive value-orientated stocks for big gains as 2025 progresses.
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2A)
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The five new places of worship
Church of South Indian Parish
St Andrew's Church Mussaffah branch
St Andrew's Church Al Ain branch
St John's Baptist Church, Ruwais
Church of the Virgin Mary and St Paul the Apostle, Ruwais
If you go
The flights Etihad (www.etihad.com) and Spice Jet (www.spicejet.com) fly direct from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Pune respectively from Dh1,000 return including taxes. Pune airport is 90 minutes away by road.
The hotels A stay at Atmantan Wellness Resort (www.atmantan.com) costs from Rs24,000 (Dh1,235) per night, including taxes, consultations, meals and a treatment package.
How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
2252 - Dh50
6025 - Dh20
6027 - Dh100
6026 - Dh200
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Major honours
ARSENAL
BARCELONA
- La Liga - 2013
- Copa del Rey - 2012
- Fifa Club World Cup - 2011
CHELSEA
- Premier League - 2015, 2017
- FA Cup - 2018
- League Cup - 2015
SPAIN
- World Cup - 2010
- European Championship - 2008, 2012
'Young girls thinking of big ideas'
Words come easy for aspiring writer Afra Al Muhairb. The business side of books, on the other hand, is entirely foreign to the 16-year-old Emirati. So, she followed her father’s advice and enroled in the Abu Dhabi Education Council’s summer entrepreneurship course at Abu Dhabi University hoping to pick up a few new skills.
“Most of us have this dream of opening a business,” said Afra, referring to her peers are “young girls thinking of big ideas.”
In the three-week class, pupils are challenged to come up with a business and develop an operational and marketing plan to support their idea. But, the learning goes far beyond sales and branding, said teacher Sonia Elhaj.
“It’s not only about starting up a business, it’s all the meta skills that goes with it -- building self confidence, communication,” said Ms Elhaj. “It’s a way to coach them and to harness ideas and to allow them to be creative. They are really hungry to do this and be heard. They are so happy to be actually doing something, to be engaged in creating something new, not only sitting and listening and getting new information and new knowledge. Now they are applying that knowledge.”
Afra’s team decided to focus their business idea on a restaurant modelled after the Leaning Tower of Pisa. Each level would have a different international cuisine and all the meat would be halal. The pupils thought of this after discussing a common problem they face when travelling abroad.
“Sometimes we find the struggle of finding halal food, so we just eat fish and cheese, so it’s hard for us to spend 20 days with fish and cheese,” said Afra. “So we made this tower so every person who comes – from Africa, from America – they will find the right food to eat.”
rpennington@thenational.ae
Scorecard:
England 458 & 119/1 (51.0 ov)
South Africa 361
England lead by 216 runs with 9 wickets remaining
The results of the first round are as follows:
Qais Saied (Independent): 18.4 per cent
Nabil Karoui (Qalb Tounes): 15.58 per cent
Abdelfattah Mourou (Ennahdha party): 12.88 per cent
Abdelkarim Zbidi (two-time defence minister backed by Nidaa Tounes party): 10.7 per cent
Youssef Chahed (former prime minister, leader of Long Live Tunisia): 7.3 per cent
Company%20profile
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Ibrahim's play list
Completed an electrical diploma at the Adnoc Technical Institute
Works as a public relations officer with Adnoc
Apart from the piano, he plays the accordion, oud and guitar
His favourite composer is Johann Sebastian Bach
Also enjoys listening to Mozart
Likes all genres of music including Arabic music and jazz
Enjoys rock groups Scorpions and Metallica
Other musicians he likes are Syrian-American pianist Malek Jandali and Lebanese oud player Rabih Abou Khalil
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
Company%C2%A0profile
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ZAYED SUSTAINABILITY PRIZE
Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
Yahya Al Ghassani's bio
Date of birth: April 18, 1998
Playing position: Winger
Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda
Landfill in numbers
• Landfill gas is composed of 50 per cent methane
• Methane is 28 times more harmful than Co2 in terms of global warming
• 11 million total tonnes of waste are being generated annually in Abu Dhabi
• 18,000 tonnes per year of hazardous and medical waste is produced in Abu Dhabi emirate per year
• 20,000 litres of cooking oil produced in Abu Dhabi’s cafeterias and restaurants every day is thrown away
• 50 per cent of Abu Dhabi’s waste is from construction and demolition
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
Company%20profile
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, second leg result:
Ajax 2-3 Tottenham
Tottenham advance on away goals rule after tie ends 3-3 on aggregate
Final: June 1, Madrid
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
In 2018, the ICRC received 27,756 trace requests in the Middle East alone. The global total was 45,507.
There are 139,018 global trace requests that have not been resolved yet, 55,672 of these are in the Middle East region.
More than 540,000 individuals approached the ICRC in the Middle East asking to be reunited with missing loved ones in 2018.
The total figure for the entire world was 654,000 in 2018.
FIXTURES (all times UAE)
Sunday
Brescia v Lazio (3.30pm)
SPAL v Verona (6pm)
Genoa v Sassuolo (9pm)
AS Roma v Torino (11.45pm)
Monday
Bologna v Fiorentina (3.30pm)
AC Milan v Sampdoria (6pm)
Juventus v Cagliari (6pm)
Atalanta v Parma (6pm)
Lecce v Udinese (9pm)
Napoli v Inter Milan (11.45pm)
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Jewel of the Expo 2020
252 projectors installed on Al Wasl dome
13.6km of steel used in the structure that makes it equal in length to 16 Burj Khalifas
550 tonnes of moulded steel were raised last year to cap the dome
724,000 cubic metres is the space it encloses
Stands taller than the leaning tower of Pisa
Steel trellis dome is one of the largest single structures on site
The size of 16 tennis courts and weighs as much as 500 elephants
Al Wasl means connection in Arabic
World’s largest 360-degree projection surface
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
