A potential ceasefire deal between Ukraine and Russia could have several positive effects on Europe’s economy and its stock markets, although any impact will depend on the terms of the deal, analysts say.
US President Donald Trump has said he wants to bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine, and senior US and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia this week to discuss the possibility of a meeting aimed at efforts to end the war.
Mr Trump said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would visit the White House on Friday to sign “a very big agreement” under which Kyiv will hand revenue from its mineral resources to the US as payment for military aid.
“There is enough common ground to make a ceasefire deal possible between Ukraine and Russia. However, conflicting objectives challenge the long-term viability of such a deal,” said Christian Gattiker, head of research at Julius Baer.
Whether the discussions will lead to lasting peace is still uncertain, agreed Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer of Century Financial. “If a ceasefire in Ukraine happens, it could have several positive effects on Europe’s economy and stock market,” he said. “Lower geopolitical risks might boost consumer confidence, encouraging people to spend more instead of saving.
“Gas prices in Europe could drop, easing energy costs for businesses and households. Transport costs could also come down due to lower gas prices and the opening of international trade and airspace routes. Defence spending is expected to rise regardless of whether the ceasefire is temporary or long-term.”
It is expected that defence spending could exceed 3 per cent of gross domestic product, in line with recent comments from Nato general secretary Mark Rutte. “This would support the defence sector, creating long-term demand for military capabilities across Europe,” Mr Valecha said.
The implications of the Trump administration’s stance on Europe will “continue to mean that the latter must scramble to fund a more credible military presence and/or pay the US for it to continue to provide a security umbrella”, said John Hardy, chief macro strategist at Saxo Bank.
“Defence-related stocks across Europe have taken off to the upside for good reason as we are set for years of significant investment in the industry, though there is some risk that the US will want some of that spending to go its way.”
While a potential ceasefire deal would be supportive of “global risk-on sentiment in financial markets, but on its own, it would likely not be a game-changer for the European economic outlook”, said Mr Gattiker.
“The outlook for reconstruction spending in Ukraine depends on the quality of the deal,” he added. "Weak or missing security guarantees, constraints to Ukraine’s armament and a large cession of territory would seriously impede reconstruction spending and migration back to Ukraine, while making little difference for the increase in defence spending."
Equities
Easing geopolitical risks and lower energy prices should support consumer confidence, which could help the consumer discretionary sector, Mr Valecha said.
The substantial reconstruction efforts needed in Ukraine, estimated by the World Bank to cost about $500 billion, would also stimulate demand in the construction and industrial sectors. Industries such as building materials and steel will also be supported by rising demand, beyond Ukraine, and lower input costs from falling gas prices, he said.
Mr Gattiker expects stocks in cyclical sectors, such as chemicals, construction materials and industrials, to benefit from a potential ceasefire deal.
The sentiment among investors towards European equities has shifted from overly bearish at the beginning of the year to cautiously optimistic
Christian Gattiker,
head of research, Julius Baer
“In emerging economies, Poland is set to benefit strongly from both reconstruction efforts and lower gas prices. Moreover, we remain wary of potential negative impacts, such as a possible repatriation of Ukrainian migrants weighing on domestic consumption and exacerbating wage inflation, given already tight labour market conditions,” he said.
“The sentiment among investors towards European equities has shifted from overly bearish at the beginning of the year to cautiously optimistic ... thus, we see the increased risk of a ‘sell the news’ situation, where investors take profits once a ceasefire deal has been announced.”
Currencies
The immediate reaction on currency markets is expected to be some softening of the US dollar and other safe-haven currencies, such as the Swiss franc, said Mr Gattiker.
“In the longer term, a peace deal and the subsequent lifting of sanctions against Russia could remove the stigma of the US dollar’s weaponisation and restore confidence in the dollar’s characteristics as a global reserve currency," he said.
Meanwhile, declining geopolitical tension, cheaper gas, reducing inflation and potential economic growth are expected to bode well for the euro, Mr Valecha said.
Commodities
"In the context of commodities, we could equally see the wheat and grain prices ease and ease the inflation expectations globally. The latter could give support to dovish central bank expectations and boost appetite for risky assets," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
Europe, especially Germany, has had strong ties with Russia through energy trade, and if the conflict is resolved, it could lead to a rollback of sanctions and significantly lower European energy prices, said Mr Valecha.
A potential reopening of Ukraine’s gas pipeline could also reduce prices by a further 20 per cent to 25 per cent, which would benefit all European gas importers and, in turn, boost economic growth and reduce inflation.
Looking at gold, a ceasefire could reduce its appeal as a safe investment, although long-term demand remains strong, he added.
Mr Gattiker also agreed that appetite for gold as a central bank reserve asset remains high. “Beyond any short-term dent to market sentiment – which could happen once progress in the ceasefire talks is made – we do not believe that the long-term fundamental backdrop for gold is set to change significantly,” he said.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Panipat
Director Ashutosh Gowariker
Produced Ashutosh Gowariker, Rohit Shelatkar, Reliance Entertainment
Cast Arjun Kapoor, Sanjay Dutt, Kriti Sanon, Mohnish Behl, Padmini Kolhapure, Zeenat Aman
Rating 3 /5 stars
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Student Of The Year 2
Director: Punit Malhotra
Stars: Tiger Shroff, Tara Sutaria, Ananya Pandey, Aditya Seal
1.5 stars
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Results
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NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The years Ramadan fell in May
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
SPECS
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
ABU%20DHABI'S%20KEY%20TOURISM%20GOALS%3A%20BY%20THE%20NUMBERS
%3Cp%3EBy%202030%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%20aims%20to%20achieve%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%2039.3%20million%20visitors%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20nearly%2064%25%20up%20from%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%20Dh90%20billion%20contribution%20to%20GDP%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20about%2084%25%20more%20than%20Dh49%20billion%20in%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%20178%2C000%20new%20jobs%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20bringing%20the%20total%20to%20about%20366%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%2052%2C000%20hotel%20rooms%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20up%2053%25%20from%2034%2C000%20in%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%207.2%20million%20international%20visitors%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20almost%2090%25%20higher%20compared%20to%202023's%203.8%20million%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%80%A2%203.9%20international%20overnight%20hotel%20stays%2C%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2022%25%20more%20from%203.2%20nights%20in%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Getting%20there%20and%20where%20to%20stay
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
EMILY%20IN%20PARIS%3A%20SEASON%203
%3Cp%3ECreated%20by%3A%20Darren%20Star%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Lily%20Collins%2C%20Philippine%20Leroy-Beaulieu%2C%20Ashley%20Park%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%202.75%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sugary teas and iced coffees
The tax authority is yet to release a list of the taxed products, but it appears likely that sugary iced teas and cold coffees will be hit.
For instance, the non-fizzy drink AriZona Iced Tea contains 65 grams of sugar – about 16 teaspoons – per 680ml can. The average can costs about Dh6, which would rise to Dh9.
Cold coffee brands are likely to be hit too. Drinks such as Starbucks Bottled Mocha Frappuccino contain 31g of sugar in 270ml, while Nescafe Mocha in a can contains 15.6g of sugar in a 240ml can.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Jeff Buckley: From Hallelujah To The Last Goodbye
By Dave Lory with Jim Irvin
Company profile
Name: Back to Games and Boardgame Space
Started: Back to Games (2015); Boardgame Space (Mark Azzam became co-founder in 2017)
Founder: Back to Games (Mr Azzam); Boardgame Space (Mr Azzam and Feras Al Bastaki)
Based: Dubai and Abu Dhabi
Industry: Back to Games (retail); Boardgame Space (wholesale and distribution)
Funding: Back to Games: self-funded by Mr Azzam with Dh1.3 million; Mr Azzam invested Dh250,000 in Boardgame Space
Growth: Back to Games: from 300 products in 2015 to 7,000 in 2019; Boardgame Space: from 34 games in 2017 to 3,500 in 2019
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Alaan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Parthi%20Duraisamy%20and%20Karun%20Kurien%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%247%20million%20raised%20in%20total%20%E2%80%94%20%242.5%20million%20in%20a%20seed%20round%20and%20%244.5%20million%20in%20a%20pre-series%20A%20round%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha
Starring: Ajay Devgn, Tabu, Shantanu Maheshwari, Jimmy Shergill, Saiee Manjrekar
Director: Neeraj Pandey
Rating: 2.5/5
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
The five pillars of Islam
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The biog
Favourite Quote: “Real victories are those that protect human life, not those that result from its destruction emerge from its ashes,” by The late king Hussain of Jordan.
Favourite Hobby: Writing and cooking
Favourite Book: The Prophet by Gibran Khalil Gibran
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Company%C2%A0profile
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Australia World Cup squad
Aaron Finch (capt), Usman Khawaja, David Warner, Steve Smith, Shaun Marsh, Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis, Alex Carey, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Jhye Richardson, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Jason Behrendorff, Nathan Lyon, Adam Zampa
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
The%20Emperor%20and%20the%20Elephant
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESam%20Ottewill-Soulsby%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPrinceton%20University%20Press%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E392%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJuly%2011%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
match info
Southampton 2 (Ings 32' & pen 89') Tottenham Hotspur 5 (Son 45', 47', 64', & 73', Kane 82')
Man of the match Son Heung-min (Tottenham)
Company%20Profile
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MATCH INFO
Azerbaijan 0
Wales 2 (Moore 10', Wilson 34')
