The world will move urgently to find alternatives to the US dollar as the Donald Trump administration will slap huge tariffs on the global financial system, according to Saxo Bank's annual Outrageous Predictions report for 2025.
The Danish investment bank’s list of eight events that are unlikely to occur in 2025 – but would send shock waves through global financial markets if they did – also includes Nvidia ballooning to twice the value of Apple, China unveiling a $7 trillion stimulus to reflate the economy, the first human heart being bio-printed and an electrification boom ending Opec.
“While we don’t know which stories will drive the global economy in the coming year, our 2025 predictions, from Nvidia trouncing its Magnificent 7 peers to the fall of Opec, from a bold bet on reflation in China to a great leap forward in biotech, are just as promised: outrageous,” says John Hardy, chief macro strategist at Saxo Bank.
Mr Trump has also threatened to levy an additional 10 per cent tariffs on goods from China and 25 per cent tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada if those countries do not do more to stem the flow of illegal drugs and undocumented migrants across US borders.
Here are Saxo Bank’s eight outrageous forecasts for 2025:
1. Trump 2.0 blows up the dollar
Outrageous prediction: As the new Donald Trump administration turns the global financial system on its head with huge tariffs, the world will move urgently to find alternatives to the dollar.
China and the Brics+ transact with gold-backed digital money and, to a degree, directly in a new gold-backed offshore yuan. Europe rebases its trading relationships increasingly in the euro. Gold-linked crypto stablecoins add to the mix.
Market impact: The crypto market quadruples to more than $10 trillion, and the US dollar falls 20 per cent against major currencies and 30 per cent versus gold.
2. Nvidia balloons to twice the value of Apple
Outrageous prediction: In 2025, Nvidia’s success is supercharged further with the availability in volume of its 208-billion transistor Blackwell chip.
“With the intensifying AI arms race and as AI data centre electricity costs have soared, the insatiable demand for the more powerful and yet less power-hungry Blackwell chips sees Nvidia taking the crown as the most profitable company of all time,” Mr Hardy says.
“It handily surpasses Apple’s record $105 billion of profits next year, and with far faster growth baked into expectations, its market cap nearly doubles again, making it twice the size of Apple. This sees it tower above all other companies in the world at a value of $7 trillion, or 10 per cent of the global equity market.”
Market impact: Nvidia shares trade well north of $250 before the market begins to question its potential to grab a greater share of corporate profits and as regulatory scrutiny on its monopoly status tempers the outlook.
3. China unleashes $7 trillion stimulus
Outrageous prediction: In 2025, China unleashes fiscal initiatives that add up to promises of more than CNY 50 trillion (about $7 trillion) in 2025 and the following years.
“Much of the spending goes directly into consumers' pockets via e-CNY digital currency, so that it will be injected straight into the economy rather than to pay off debt,” says Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist, Saxo Bank.
Market impact: A strong reflationary impact in China and the world, outperformance of emerging markets relative to developed markets and China in particular, higher commodity prices globally, and a stronger Chinese renminbi.
4. First human heart is bio-printed
Outrageous prediction: Researchers successfully bio-print a fully functional human heart using advanced 3D bioprinting technology in 2025.
“This achievement promises to alleviate the global shortage of donor organs by providing bio-printed hearts tailored to the DNA of individual patients. This breakthrough paves the way for extending human longevity,” says Koen Hoorelbeke, investment and options strategist at Saxo Bank.
Market impact: The success in bio-printed organs raises growth expectations for the biotechnology and 3D printing sectors. Most companies in this space are in the start-up phase but watch for a rash of initial public offerings.
5. Electrification boom ends Opec
Outrageous prediction: In 2025, with the writing on the wall on the forward demand picture since two-thirds of oil ends up as petrol or diesel in cars and lorries, Opec finds its relevance shrinking further and its multimillion barrel per day production limits irrelevant.
“With some members already cheating production quotas to grab what income they can and export demand falling, a majority of members quickly realise the jig is up. Amid the bickering and infighting, key members leave,” says Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
“This consigns Opec to the ash heap of history. Former members max out production to ensure market share, driving a large drop in oil prices.”
Market impact: Crude oil slumps in price, a boon for airlines, chemical, paint and tyre manufacturers, and freight and logistics companies. But the market balances quickly, and oil prices stabilise as higher-cost suppliers, especially in North America, shut down expensive shale oil production.
In 2025, with the writing on the wall on the forward demand picture, Opec finds its relevance shrinking further
Ole Hansen,
head of commoditiy strategy, Saxo Bank
6. US imposes AI data centre tax
Outrageous prediction: With tech giants sucking up power supplies for their new AI data centres, utility bills skyrocket and an outraged public demands action.
“In response, many local authorities move in to protect political constituents, slapping huge taxes and even fines on the largest data centres in a move to subsidise lower power prices for households,” Mr Hansen says.
Market impact: A massive boom in US investment in power infrastructure. Tesla’s accelerating Megapack gets increasing attention. Long-term US natural gas prices more than double.
7. A natural disaster bankrupts a large US insurer
Outrageous prediction: After a year of wild weather in 2024, a catastrophic storm hits the US in 2025, sinking a large insurer that has underestimated climate change risks.
“With insufficient reserves to cover claims and inadequate reinsurance to mitigate the costs of this extreme event, panic spreads across the entire industry. A crisis unfolds, prompting government-level discussions on whether to bail out the failing company and the other walking wounded in the industry to prevent widespread risk contagion,” Mr Hardy says.
Market impact: Berkshire Hathaway shares rise as Warren Buffett’s company has enough capital to weather the panic and gain market share.
8. Pound erases post-Brexit discounts vs euro
Outrageous prediction: As Europe’s economy struggles, fresh fiscal policy winds are blowing in the UK, driving sterling back to levels versus the euro not seen since before Brexit.
“The new UK Labour government announced budget priorities ahead of 2025 that avoided the most growth-damaging types of tax hikes on income, while trimming the least productive public sector spending in moving to shrinking its deficits,” Mr Hardy says.
Market impact: Encouraging domestic investment and a more robust growth outlook support sterling versus the flailing euro, seeing the euro/sterling rate fall as low as 0.7500, below the rate the day before the Brexit vote at 0.76. The UK FTSE 100 posts a strong performance.
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
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Januzaj's club record
Manchester United 50 appearances, 5 goals
Borussia Dortmund (loan) 6 appearances, 0 goals
Sunderland (loan) 25 appearances, 0 goals
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Kibsons%20Cares
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERecycling%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fstrong%3EAny%20time%20you%20receive%20a%20Kibsons%20order%2C%20you%20can%20return%20your%20cardboard%20box%20to%20the%20drivers.%20They%E2%80%99ll%20be%20happy%20to%20take%20it%20off%20your%20hands%20and%20ensure%20it%20gets%20reused%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EKind%20to%20health%20and%20planet%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESolar%20%E2%80%93%2025-50%25%20of%20electricity%20saved%3Cbr%3EWater%20%E2%80%93%2075%25%20of%20water%20reused%3Cbr%3EBiofuel%20%E2%80%93%20Kibsons%20fleet%20to%20get%2020%25%20more%20mileage%20per%20litre%20with%20biofuel%20additives%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESustainable%20grocery%20shopping%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ENo%20antibiotics%3Cbr%3ENo%20added%20hormones%3Cbr%3ENo%20GMO%3Cbr%3ENo%20preservatives%3Cbr%3EMSG%20free%3Cbr%3E100%25%20natural%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Price, base / as tested Dh1,100,000 (est)
Engine 5.2-litre V10
Gearbox seven-speed dual clutch
Power 630bhp @ 8,000rpm
Torque 600Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined 15.7L / 100km (est)
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MANDOOB
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Australia men's Test cricket fixtures 2021/22
One-off Test v Afghanistan:
Nov 27-Dec 1: Blundstone Arena, Hobart
The Ashes v England:
Dec 8-12: 1st Test, Gabba, Brisbane
Dec 16-20: 2nd Test, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide (day/night)
Dec 26-30: 3rd Test, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
Jan 5-9, 2022: 4th Test, Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
Jan 14-18: 5th Test, Optus Stadium, Perth
Why seagrass matters
- Carbon sink: Seagrass sequesters carbon up to 35X faster than tropical rainforests
- Marine nursery: Crucial habitat for juvenile fish, crustations, and invertebrates
- Biodiversity: Support species like sea turtles, dugongs, and seabirds
- Coastal protection: Reduce erosion and improve water quality
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
What is Folia?
Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed bin Talal's new plant-based menu will launch at Four Seasons hotels in Dubai this November. A desire to cater to people looking for clean, healthy meals beyond green salad is what inspired Prince Khaled and American celebrity chef Matthew Kenney to create Folia. The word means "from the leaves" in Latin, and the exclusive menu offers fine plant-based cuisine across Four Seasons properties in Los Angeles, Bahrain and, soon, Dubai.
Kenney specialises in vegan cuisine and is the founder of Plant Food Wine and 20 other restaurants worldwide. "I’ve always appreciated Matthew’s work," says the Saudi royal. "He has a singular culinary talent and his approach to plant-based dining is prescient and unrivalled. I was a fan of his long before we established our professional relationship."
Folia first launched at The Four Seasons Hotel Los Angeles at Beverly Hills in July 2018. It is available at the poolside Cabana Restaurant and for in-room dining across the property, as well as in its private event space. The food is vibrant and colourful, full of fresh dishes such as the hearts of palm ceviche with California fruit, vegetables and edible flowers; green hearb tacos filled with roasted squash and king oyster barbacoa; and a savoury coconut cream pie with macadamia crust.
In March 2019, the Folia menu reached Gulf shores, as it was introduced at the Four Seasons Hotel Bahrain Bay, where it is served at the Bay View Lounge. Next, on Tuesday, November 1 – also known as World Vegan Day – it will come to the UAE, to the Four Seasons Resort Dubai at Jumeirah Beach and the Four Seasons DIFC, both properties Prince Khaled has spent "considerable time at and love".
There are also plans to take Folia to several more locations throughout the Middle East and Europe.
While health-conscious diners will be attracted to the concept, Prince Khaled is careful to stress Folia is "not meant for a specific subset of customers. It is meant for everyone who wants a culinary experience without the negative impact that eating out so often comes with."
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
MATCH INFO
Barcelona 2
Suarez (10'), Messi (52')
Real Madrid 2
Ronaldo (14'), Bale (72')
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
My Cat Yugoslavia by Pajtim Statovci
Pushkin Press
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday (UAE kick-off times)
Borussia Dortmund v Paderborn (11.30pm)
Saturday
Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg (6.30pm)
Werder Bremen v Schalke (6.30pm)
Union Berlin v Borussia Monchengladbach (6.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Wolfsburg (6.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldof v Bayern Munich (6.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Cologne (9.30pm)
Sunday
Augsburg v Hertha Berlin (6.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Mainz (9pm)
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
The%20new%20Turing%20Test
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Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Notable cricketers and political careers
- India: Kirti Azad, Navjot Sidhu and Gautam Gambhir (rumoured)
- Pakistan: Imran Khan and Shahid Afridi (rumoured)
- Sri Lanka: Arjuna Ranatunga, Sanath Jayasuriya, Tillakaratne Dilshan (rumoured)
- Bangladesh (Mashrafe Mortaza)
In numbers
Number of Chinese tourists coming to UAE in 2017 was... 1.3m
Alibaba’s new ‘Tech Town’ in Dubai is worth... $600m
China’s investment in the MIddle East in 2016 was... $29.5bn
The world’s most valuable start-up in 2018, TikTok, is valued at... $75bn
Boost to the UAE economy of 5G connectivity will be... $269bn
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
ETFs explained
Exhchange traded funds are bought and sold like shares, but operate as index-tracking funds, passively following their chosen indices, such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and the FTSE All World, plus a vast range of smaller exchanges and commodities, such as gold, silver, copper sugar, coffee and oil.
ETFs have zero upfront fees and annual charges as low as 0.07 per cent a year, which means you get to keep more of your returns, as actively managed funds can charge as much as 1.5 per cent a year.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five biggest providers BlackRock’s iShares range, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs, Deutsche Bank AWM X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
The five pillars of Islam
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
