The gold price is having a moment as the world’s oldest safe haven and store of value smashes past one record high after another. It’s giving goldbugs the ride of their lives, hitting an all-time high of $2,790.15 an ounce on October 31, before dipping slightly afterwards.
The precious metal is up 38.16 per cent over the last 12 months, but this isn’t a flash in the pan. Over five years, it's up 81.86 per cent and a blockbuster 547.52 per cent over 20 years. That would have turned a $10,000 investment into a stunning $64,752.
That's a dazzling return, if not quite Bitcoin-dazzling. There’s also a risk the rally could get out of hand, as fear of missing out kicks in with the Bank of America predicting gold will hit $3,000 in 2025, and some traders even more bullish. How long can this go on?
Gold is in demand for the age-old reason that investors are looking for a reliable hedge against geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty, says Mohamed Hashad, chief market strategist at Noor Capital.
“Gold offers security at a time of moderate economic growth, ongoing inflationary pressures and volatile markets.” Emerging market consumers are also loading up on gold "to give them security outside of the traditional financial systems”, Mr Hashad adds.
Central bankers have pitched in, too, as China and others seek to diversify their reserves and wean themselves off dollar-denominated assets such as US government bonds. Latest figures from the World Gold Council show sales have slowed, with August's figure the lowest since March, but they’re still high. The National Bank of Poland, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey and the Reserve Bank of India were the biggest buyers.
Gold has one big disadvantage for investors. It doesn't pay any interest. It should, therefore, suffer when interest rates are high, because investors can secure higher yields from rival boltholes such as cash and bonds.
The recent gold spike reflects expectations that the US Federal Reserve will follow September’s rate cut with two more before Christmas, Mr Hashad says. “If that happens, demand for non-yielding assets like gold should rise, especially as the US dollar’s value fluctuates.”
Yet Mr Hashad says buyers should approach with caution. “Those entering the market now could face losses if demand slows or conditions become more stable, reducing gold’s role as a safe haven.”
Suspicions that the Fed may be forced to hold interest rates higher for longer have pushed up bond yields and the US dollar in recent days. Carsten Menke, head of next generation research at Julius Baer, says it’s unusual to see precious metal prices rally at the same time as the US dollar strengthens.
Gold is priced in dollars, so a stronger greenback makes it more expensive for buyers in countries with other currencies, which would normally hit demand and the price. The fact gold is still rising suggests investors are “in crisis mode”, Mr Menke says. “For gold, this is something that typically only happens in times of extreme economic or systemic stress, say during the financial crisis or eurozone crisis.”
The knife-edge US presidential election is adding fuel to the fire, he adds. Mr Menke says there is a "high conviction among large institutional investors" that the backdrop for gold will be bullish no matter who makes it to the White House. “This is based on the belief that US fiscal deficits are set to remain large, which should weigh on the dollar and may potentially undermine its role as the world’s reserve currency.”
Mr Menke also suggested there is a “bullish wildcard” working in favour of gold, the risk of public unrest after an inconclusive election result on November 5, which he says “seems more likely in case of a Harris win than a Trump win”.
Investors should remain cool as the market hots up. Mr Menke adds: “Today’s extreme euphoria makes gold and silver susceptible to a short-term setback. However, this will likely be treated as a longer-term buying opportunity.”
I see no sign of extreme euphoria, simply a metal that has rallied as investors seek protection against multiple uncertainties in an unsettled world
Ole Hansen,
head of commodities strategy, Saxo Bank
Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, takes a different view. “I see no sign of extreme euphoria, simply a metal that has rallied as investors seek protection against multiple uncertainties in an unsettled world.”
He lists these risks as “fiscal instability, geopolitical tensions, de-dollarisation, the US election and Chinese investors turning to gold amid record-low savings rates and property market worries”. While some worry that we won’t get a clear US presidential winner on November 5, Mr Hansen says others are concerned by a potential “red sweep” in which the Republicans win control both of the White House and Congress.
“This raises concerns about excessive government spending, which would push the debt-to-GDP ratio higher while fuelling inflation fears through tariffs on imports and geopolitical risks. Investors are turning to precious metals as protection.”
Yet Mr Hansen also warns investors that “nothing ever goes in a straight line”, and gold could still correct at some point. Any dip could be a buying opportunity, as today's risks aren't going to suddenly disappear and “the prospect for even higher prices remains”, he adds.
Gold is doing what it always does in uncertain times, says Tony Hallside, chief executive of Dubai-based advisers and brokers STP Partners. “With heightened geopolitical risks spanning the Middle East, Europe and the US, investors are turning to gold as a counterweight to volatility in other asset classes.”
While the gold price may fluctuate in the short term, Mr Hallside believes the broader trajectory is resilient. “Gold could realistically test levels approaching $2,800 if economic and geopolitical tensions remain high. This resilience is bolstered by persistent inflation, which supports gold’s status as a hedge against currency depreciation, especially as other safe-haven assets remain tethered to central bank policies.”
The precious metal has lost none of its lustre, Mr Hallside adds. “Gold remains a compelling choice for those seeking stability amid an unpredictable economic backdrop.”
Today it is suffering a strange kind of euphoria, one built on fear rather than greed. Gold is also a strange kind of safe haven, as the price can be highly volatile, which means investors’ capital is at risk. After spiking in 1979 following the Iranian revolution and Russia's invasion of Afghanistan, the gold price crashed and didn’t recover for two decades.
That seems highly unlikely today, but nobody can say for sure. And that’s why people hold gold. As a hedge against the fact that nobody knows what's going to happen next.
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
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UNpaid bills:
Countries with largest unpaid bill for UN budget in 2019
USA – $1.055 billion
Brazil – $143 million
Argentina – $52 million
Mexico – $36 million
Iran – $27 million
Israel – $18 million
Venezuela – $17 million
Korea – $10 million
Countries with largest unpaid bill for UN peacekeeping operations in 2019
USA – $2.38 billion
Brazil – $287 million
Spain – $110 million
France – $103 million
Ukraine – $100 million
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
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Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
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The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
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Young women have more “financial grit”, but fall behind on investing
In an October survey of young adults aged 16 to 25, Charles Schwab found young women are more driven to reach financial independence than young men (67 per cent versus. 58 per cent). They are more likely to take on extra work to make ends meet and see more value than men in creating a plan to achieve their financial goals. Yet, despite all these good ‘first’ measures, they are investing and saving less than young men – falling early into the financial gender gap.
While the women surveyed report spending 36 per cent less than men, they have far less savings than men ($1,267 versus $2,000) – a nearly 60 per cent difference.
In addition, twice as many young men as women say they would invest spare cash, and almost twice as many young men as women report having investment accounts (though most young adults do not invest at all).
“Despite their good intentions, young women start to fall behind their male counterparts in savings and investing early on in life,” said Carrie Schwab-Pomerantz, senior vice president, Charles Schwab. “They start off showing a strong financial planning mindset, but there is still room for further education when it comes to managing their day-to-day finances.”
Ms Schwab-Pomerantz says parents should be conveying the same messages to boys and girls about money, but should tailor those conversations based on the individual and gender.
"Our study shows that while boys are spending more than girls, they also are saving more. Have open and honest conversations with your daughters about the wage and savings gap," she said. "Teach kids about the importance of investing – especially girls, who as we see in this study, aren’t investing as much. Part of being financially prepared is learning to make the most of your money, and that means investing early and consistently."
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1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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UK's plans to cut net migration
Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.
Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.
But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.
Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.
Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.
The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.
Difference between fractional ownership and timeshare
Although similar in its appearance, the concept of a fractional title deed is unlike that of a timeshare, which usually involves multiple investors buying “time” in a property whereby the owner has the right to occupation for a specified period of time in any year, as opposed to the actual real estate, said John Peacock, Head of Indirect Tax and Conveyancing, BSA Ahmad Bin Hezeem & Associates, a law firm.
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Six large-scale objects on show
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- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
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