Have markets partied too hard? With world and US stocks up 18.2 per cent and 23.7 per cent, respectively, year to date through to October 29, wrong-headed bears see above-average gains as signs stocks are overheated.
Wrong! Strong returns aren’t barriers to more good times. These returns, as I will show you, are smack dab average.
Investing is error-prone. Anchoring to long-term average returns is a big one. When stocks outrun the S&P 500’s annualised average – about 10 per cent in USD – folks get twitchy. They presume worse ahead to revert returns back to average. Big upside must cap future gains!
But consensus concepts of “average” don’t imply frequent. The S&P 500 usually returns far higher or lower than that. Averages blend together volatile extremes, combining mostly big positives with fewer negatives.
Long term, average returns aren’t normal – extreme returns are. Hence, current strength is shockingly normal. Whatever stocks do now, through 2025, good or bad, won’t be because of returns year to date.
Stocks rise big far more often than fall. Using America’s S&P 500 for its global importance and longest accurate history, since 1925, stocks gained in fully 75.2 per cent of all rolling 12-month periods through September (in USD).
Yet, returns are often wild year to year. To see that, bracket together calendar year returns into ranges: exceeding 20 per cent, 0 to 20 per cent gains, 0 to -20 per cent declines and -20 per cent or uglier.
Since 1925, US stocks rose big – above 20 per cent – in 37 of 98 years – the most common result! Next most frequent? Up less. Zero to 20 per cent gains happened 35 times.
Negative years – down between 0 and -20 per cent – were less common – 20 times. And down more than -20 per cent? That occurred just six times. So, US markets posted huge gains six times more often than big declines!
Alternately, US stocks beat their 10 per cent long-term average in USD in 58 of 98 calendar years. They fell – at all – less than half as often, 26 times. That makes 2024’s big year-to-date returns start to look more common, less curious.
Long-term average returns are quite rare. Consider recent history. US stocks haven’t gained between 5 per cent and 15 per cent since 2016. Overall, it happened in just 17 per cent of S&P 500 years since 1925. Hence, that “average” year happens only once of every six years!
Recently, many fixated upon 2022’s negativity. But what of 2019’s 31.5 per cent S&P 500 USD boom. Or 2021’s 28.7 per cent climb. Or 2023’s 26.3 per cent jump. All were “extreme”. Ironically, 2020 was the closest to “average” in that stretch, as US stocks rose 18.4 per cent.
But would you call anything about 2020 nearly “average” or “normal?” No. The S&P 500 plunged 33.8 per cent in USD from February 19 through March 23 amid Covid lockdowns. Hardly “normal”! Then it soared 70.2 per cent from the March low through year end. Also extreme! The cumulative 18.4 per cent return feels slightly above average but masks a wild ride.
Whether you are in a bull or bear market makes a huge difference as to what sort of returns you might normally expect. In bull markets, stocks rise and by definition must be commonly above average.
In a bear market, they fall – below average. Sounds childishly obvious. It isn’t. Few ever stop to think: “I’m in a bull market, so returns should average far above long-term average returns.”
Most investors cling to that average return for all years, making bull market gains look too big, too fast. Nearly every bull market features such fears. But big returns in bull markets are “normal”.
US stocks’ roughly 10 per cent long-term annualised average includes all bear markets, even the worst of the worst. To outstrip the massive down years and reach that 10 per cent annual average, the up years must be way, way up.
Hence bull markets alone have averaged 23 per cent annualised – a fact few seem to even know. Note: 2024’s 23.7 per cent result, so far, is right there, smack dab on that average – nothing more.
Seemingly “extreme” positives within bull markets underpin the “average” returns bears latch on to.
Not that 2025 is a sure-fire winner. Falling uncertainty after America’s election should power returns near-term, but risks could lurk later.
I’ll address that here month to month ahead. But those risks don’t include 2024’s big returns. And the backdrop has plenty of positives, too. If bad times await, it will be because new, unpriced risks outweigh those positives, not because this year was too hot.
Regardless, when you realise robust gains aren’t abnormal, you see “too far, too fast” fears are faulty. The climb in 2024 is terrifically typical.
Ken Fisher is the founder, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer of Fisher Investments, a global investment adviser with $285 billion of assets under management
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Teri%20Baaton%20Mein%20Aisa%20Uljha%20Jiya
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amit%20Joshi%20and%20Aradhana%20Sah%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECast%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shahid%20Kapoor%2C%20Kriti%20Sanon%2C%20Dharmendra%2C%20Dimple%20Kapadia%2C%20Rakesh%20Bedi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: four-litre V6 and 3.5-litre V6 twin-turbo
Transmission: six-speed and 10-speed
Power: 271 and 409 horsepower
Torque: 385 and 650Nm
Price: from Dh229,900 to Dh355,000
What are the main cyber security threats?
Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities.
Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids.
Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.
Fight card
1. Bantamweight: Victor Nunes (BRA) v Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK)
2. Featherweight: Hussein Salim (IRQ) v Shakhriyor Juraev (UZB)
3. Catchweight 80kg: Rashed Dawood (UAE) v Khamza Yamadaev (RUS)
4. Lightweight: Ho Taek-oh (KOR) v Ronald Girones (CUB)
5. Lightweight: Arthur Zaynukov (RUS) v Damien Lapilus (FRA)
6. Bantamweight: Vinicius de Oliveira (BRA) v Furkatbek Yokubov (RUS)
7. Featherweight: Movlid Khaybulaev (RUS) v Zaka Fatullazade (AZE)
8. Flyweight: Shannon Ross (TUR) v Donovon Freelow (USA)
9. Lightweight: Mohammad Yahya (UAE) v Dan Collins (GBR)
10. Catchweight 73kg: Islam Mamedov (RUS) v Martun Mezhulmyan (ARM)
11. Bantamweight World title: Jaures Dea (CAM) v Xavier Alaoui (MAR)
12. Flyweight World title: Manon Fiorot (FRA) v Gabriela Campo (ARG)
'Ashkal'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Youssef%20Chebbi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fatma%20Oussaifi%20and%20Mohamed%20Houcine%20Grayaa%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The years Ramadan fell in May
MATCH INFO
Real Madrid 2 (Benzema 13', Kroos 28')
Barcelona 1 (Mingueza 60')
Red card: Casemiro (Real Madrid)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The years Ramadan fell in May
Europe wide
Some of French groups are threatening Friday to continue their journey to Brussels, the capital of Belgium and the European Union, and to meet up with drivers from other countries on Monday.
Belgian authorities joined French police in banning the threatened blockade. A similar lorry cavalcade was planned for Friday in Vienna but cancelled after authorities prohibited it.
More from Neighbourhood Watch
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
WandaVision
Starring: Elizabeth Olsen, Paul Bettany
Directed by: Matt Shakman
Rating: Four stars
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
Results:
5pm: Maiden (PA) | Dh80,000 | 1,200 metres
Winner: Jabalini, Szczepan Mazur (jockey), Younis Kalbani (trainer)
5.30pm: UAE Arabian Derby (PA) | Prestige | Dh150,000 | 2,200m
Winner: Octave, Gerald Avranche, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round 3 (PA) | Group 3 Dh300,000 | 2,200m
Winner: Harrab, Richard Mullen, Mohamed Ali
6.30pm: Emirates Championship (PA) | Group 1 | Dh1million | 2,200m
Winner: BF Mughader, Szczepan Mazur, Younis Al Kalbani
7pm: Abu Dhabi Championship (TB) | Group 3 | Dh380,000 | 2,200m
Winner: GM Hopkins, Patrick Cosgrave, Jaber Ramadhan
7.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) | Conditions | Dh70,000 | 1,600m
Winner: AF La’Asae, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
RESULTS
6.30pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (Dirt) 1,200
Winner: Miqyaas, Adrie de Vries (jockey), Rashed Bouresly (trainer).
7.05pm: Handicap Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Untold Secret, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer.
7.40pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Shanty Star, Fabrice Veron, Rashed Bouresly.
8.15pm: Handicap Dh190,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Alkaamel, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi.
8.50pm: Handicap Dh175,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Speedy Move, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
9.25pm: Handicap Dh175,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Quartier Francois, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
Men's football draw
Group A: UAE, Spain, South Africa, Jamaica
Group B: Bangladesh, Serbia, Korea
Group C: Bharat, Denmark, Kenya, USA
Group D: Oman, Austria, Rwanda
