With November 5 fast approaching, the US presidential election is shaping up to be a game-changer for financial markets.
This pivotal event could unleash shifts in policy, economic direction and global relations – setting the stage for volatility across stocks, bonds, currencies and even cryptocurrencies.
Investors and traders know the stakes are high, as new policies and fiscal strategies have the potential to alter the landscape of every major asset class.
Let’s dive into the outlook for the markets post-election, offering insights into which sectors and assets may be most affected.
While prediction markets have recently indicated a widening lead for Republicans, many commentators see a razor-thin margin between candidates in this election that adds an extra layer of unpredictability for investors and traders. This tight race magnifies the potential for sudden swings, making it a uniquely unnerving scenario for traders watching every poll and policy signal.
Macroeconomic and fiscal outlook
The election outcome is set to redefine US fiscal policy, with sweeping implications for market confidence and economic growth. Both major parties lean towards expansionary fiscal measures, despite the International Monetary Fund’s concerns over growing fiscal deficits.
A Republican victory could steer towards tax cuts and infrastructure investments, potentially pushing the US budget deficit to $5.8 trillion by 2034. On the other hand, a Democratic administration may prioritise progressive taxes and social programmes while holding the current fiscal line.
With the debt-to-gross domestic product ratio projected to hit 108 per cent over the next five years, the incoming administration faces the critical challenge of fuelling growth while managing fiscal sustainability.
Here are the crucial assets likely to be most affected by US fiscal policy changes:
- US Treasuries: Fiscal expansion could drive up government borrowing, affecting bond yields and prices.
- Equities: Sectors like infrastructure, health care and technology could benefit from targeted spending or tax policy shifts.
- US dollar: Increased deficits may weaken the dollar due to concerns over national debt, affecting global currency flows.
- Commodities: Higher infrastructure spending can boost demand for metals like steel and copper.
- Cryptocurrencies: Fiscal policy uncertainty and potential inflation could increase interest in decentralised assets.
Stocks
The US stock market has a history of unique patterns around election cycles, with the S&P 500 often experiencing strong gains before election day and mixed performance afterwards – especially during transitions of power.
Leading up to the 2024 election, the index has increased over 20 per cent year to date including dividends, which many market experts attribute to the expectations of a Trump victory. However, post-election periods tend to bring waves of volatility as new policies take shape. Historical data reveals that market lows often follow within two years of a presidential shift, as seen in 2000 and 2008.
With anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and potential fiscal boosts, investors may face near-term market corrections, but a supportive fiscal policy could pave the way for a more sustained recovery if it lifts corporate earnings.
Bonds
The bond market is on high alert as election-related uncertainties loom, with inflation and fiscal policy top of mind.
Historically, US government bond yields have swung sharply post-election; after 2016, for example, the 2-year bond yield nearly doubled amid expectations of aggressive fiscal spending.
In 2024, projected monetary easing paired with expansionary fiscal policies could stoke inflation fears, likely pushing bond yields higher. Alternatively, a conservative fiscal path aimed at controlling inflation could help stabilise yields.
Ultimately, the bond market’s course will hinge on the elected administration’s fiscal and trade policy strategies, setting the stage for potential volatility.
FX market
The US dollar’s path after the 2024 election will be shaped by shifts in monetary policy and global risk sentiment. Traditionally, a strong dollar reflects higher interest rates and market confidence in the US economy.
Yet, if the Federal Reserve moves quickly to cut rates as inflation cools, the dollar could encounter downward pressure.
Adding to the complexity, the Republican party’s proposed stance on trade and tariffs may amplify volatility, particularly in currency pairs like EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CNY.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are primed to react to election outcomes.
With a potential move towards a more accommodative monetary policy, digital assets could see growth from increased liquidity and rising demand for alternative investments.
Regulatory approaches under the new administration will also be critical: a Republican-led government may lean towards deregulation, promoting crypto innovation and adoption, while a Democratic administration might prioritise consumer protections with stricter regulations, potentially sparking short-term volatility.
Navigating post-election market shifts
This election promises to reshape the investment landscape, making vigilance and flexibility essential for navigating what lies ahead. Make sure you stay alert and informed.
Justin Biebel is director of product implementation and clearing at neo-broker amana
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
The%20specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%204cyl%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E261hp%20at%205%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E400Nm%20at%201%2C750-4%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10.5L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C999%20(VX%20Luxury)%3B%20from%20Dh149%2C999%20(VX%20Black%20Gold)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Episode list:
Ep1: A recovery like no other- the unevenness of the economic recovery
Ep2: PCR and jobs - the future of work - new trends and challenges
Ep3: The recovery and global trade disruptions - globalisation post-pandemic
Ep4: Inflation- services and goods - debt risks
Ep5: Travel and tourism
bundesliga results
Mainz 0 Augsburg 1 (Niederlechner 1')
Schalke 1 (Caligiuri pen 51') Bayer Leverkusen 1 (Miranda og 81')
Anxiety and work stress major factors
Anxiety, work stress and social isolation are all factors in the recogised rise in mental health problems.
A study UAE Ministry of Health researchers published in the summer also cited struggles with weight and illnesses as major contributors.
Its authors analysed a dozen separate UAE studies between 2007 and 2017. Prevalence was often higher in university students, women and in people on low incomes.
One showed 28 per cent of female students at a Dubai university reported symptoms linked to depression. Another in Al Ain found 22.2 per cent of students had depressive symptoms - five times the global average.
It said the country has made strides to address mental health problems but said: “Our review highlights the overall prevalence of depressive symptoms and depression, which may long have been overlooked."
Prof Samir Al Adawi, of the department of behavioural medicine at Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, who was not involved in the study but is a recognised expert in the Gulf, said how mental health is discussed varies significantly between cultures and nationalities.
“The problem we have in the Gulf is the cross-cultural differences and how people articulate emotional distress," said Prof Al Adawi.
“Someone will say that I have physical complaints rather than emotional complaints. This is the major problem with any discussion around depression."
Daniel Bardsley
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
IF YOU GO
The flights
FlyDubai flies direct from Dubai to Skopje in five hours from Dh1,314 return including taxes. Hourly buses from Skopje to Ohrid take three hours.
The tours
English-speaking guided tours of Ohrid town and the surrounding area are organised by Cultura 365; these cost €90 (Dh386) for a one-day trip including driver and guide and €100 a day (Dh429) for two people.
The hotels
Villa St Sofija in the old town of Ohrid, twin room from $54 (Dh198) a night.
St Naum Monastery, on the lake 30km south of Ohrid town, has updated its pilgrims' quarters into a modern 3-star hotel, with rooms overlooking the monastery courtyard and lake. Double room from $60 (Dh 220) a night.
Tips from the expert
Dobromir Radichkov, chief data officer at dubizzle and Bayut, offers a few tips for UAE residents looking to earn some cash from pre-loved items.
- Sellers should focus on providing high-quality used goods at attractive prices to buyers.
- It’s important to use clear and appealing photos, with catchy titles and detailed descriptions to capture the attention of prospective buyers.
- Try to advertise a realistic price to attract buyers looking for good deals, especially in the current environment where consumers are significantly more price-sensitive.
- Be creative and look around your home for valuable items that you no longer need but might be useful to others.
The years Ramadan fell in May
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
How it works
Each player begins with one of the great empires of history, from Julius Caesar's Rome to Ramses of Egypt, spread over Europe and the Middle East.
Round by round, the player expands their empire. The more land they have, the more money they can take from their coffers for each go.
As unruled land and soldiers are acquired, players must feed them. When a player comes up against land held by another army, they can choose to battle for supremacy.
A dice-based battle system is used and players can get the edge on their enemy with by deploying a renowned hero on the battlefield.
Players that lose battles and land will find their coffers dwindle and troops go hungry. The end goal? Global domination of course.
Best Academy: Ajax and Benfica
Best Agent: Jorge Mendes
Best Club : Liverpool
Best Coach: Jurgen Klopp (Liverpool)
Best Goalkeeper: Alisson Becker
Best Men’s Player: Cristiano Ronaldo
Best Partnership of the Year Award by SportBusiness: Manchester City and SAP
Best Referee: Stephanie Frappart
Best Revelation Player: Joao Felix (Atletico Madrid and Portugal)
Best Sporting Director: Andrea Berta (Atletico Madrid)
Best Women's Player: Lucy Bronze
Best Young Arab Player: Achraf Hakimi
Kooora – Best Arab Club: Al Hilal (Saudi Arabia)
Kooora – Best Arab Player: Abderrazak Hamdallah (Al-Nassr FC, Saudi Arabia)
Player Career Award: Miralem Pjanic and Ryan Giggs
SERIE A FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Saturday
Roma v Udinese (5pm)
SPAL v Napoli (8pm)
Juventus v Torino (10.45pm)
Sunday
Sampdoria v AC Milan (2.30pm)
Inter Milan v Genoa (5pm)
Crotone v Benevento (5pm)
Verona v Lazio (5pm)
Cagliari v Chievo (5pm)
Sassuolo v Bologna (8pm)
Fiorentina v Atalanta (10.45pm)
Villains
Queens of the Stone Age
Matador
Cricket World Cup League Two
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Fixtures
Wednesday January 8 –Oman v Namibia
Thursday January 9 – Oman v UAE
Saturday January 11 – UAE v Namibia
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
The biog
Born: High Wycombe, England
Favourite vehicle: One with solid axels
Favourite camping spot: Anywhere I can get to.
Favourite road trip: My first trip to Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan. The desert they have over there is different and the language made it a bit more challenging.
Favourite spot in the UAE: Al Dhafra. It’s unique, natural, inaccessible, unspoilt.
What are the main cyber security threats?
Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities.
Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids.
Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.
