Tick … tick … tick. With the US unemployment rate inching up from last year’s five-decade low, is the clock ticking on this bull market? Many fear so, claiming only big US Federal Reserve cuts can stave off recession as hiring slows.
Astoundingly wrong! Unemployment and job growth are long-late-lagging indicators, utterly useless as recession or stock market predictors. That is particularly true today, given lingering Covid-era distortions. Here is why you shouldn’t sweat recent jobs numbers.
Rising unemployment spurring recession surely seems intuitive – particularly since job loss creates pain. That pain must spread economy-wide as logic goes – given consumer spending averages about two-thirds of US economic activity. Surely unemployed workers must slash spending, right?
Not necessarily. History proves consumer spending is stunningly stable – through slowdowns or even recessions. During the 2007-2009 recession, personal consumption expenditures declined just -4.1 per cent from peak to trough. Similarly, during the 2001 recession, PCE generally rose, with the main exception being September's -1.6 per cent month-over-month dip amid the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
All this makes sense. Yes, people may cut back on luxuries during hard times. But the vast majority of spending is essential, not discretionary. Unemployed people still buy groceries, mostly pay their rent or mortgage and utilities, buy petrol and pay to fix that flat tyre or broken lock. All that keeps feeding into broader economic activity.
To truly understand how the labour market and economy intertwine, think like a chief executive. As a downturn starts weighing on sales, they cut costs. They may slash inventory, shelve expansion or slow investment. Maybe they shrink bonuses or hold marketing campaigns.
But cutting headcount? That comes later as a last resort. Few chief executives want to cut jobs. There is the human angle – they don’t want to disrupt company culture and workers’ lives. And the business angle: Experienced help is hard and costly to replace when times improve.
Hence, all the “jobless recovery” fretting common in early economic rebounds perpetually misses the point. Job growth lagging rising sales is perfectly natural!
Examples? While the 2007-2009 recession ended in June 2009, the US unemployment rate peaked at 10 per cent in October 2009 – four months after the recession ended. Total nonfarm payrolls didn’t bottom until February 2010. (Unemployment rates often ebb before job growth resumes, because discouraged workers drop out of the workforce and aren’t officially counted as “unemployed”.)
By the time the unemployment rate peaked, America’s S&P 500 had already risen by 55.3 per cent. When job growth resumed, it was up 66.8 per cent. The unemployment rate stayed above 9 per cent through September 2011, yet stocks kept climbing.
Similarly, following the recession from March 2001 to November 2001, the unemployment rate peaked in June 2003. Payrolls didn’t bottom until August. By then, the new bull market was well under way and the recession long since over.
Even during the rapid, lockdown-induced recession of 2020, unemployment peaked in April while stocks bottomed the month before. Hiring returned in May.
Unemployment data tells you where the economy was, not where it is headed. You don’t need me to tell you the past few years have taken us to some bizarre places. Yes, I mean Covid.
You are probably tired of hearing it, but lockdowns wreaked havoc on economic cycles – and the metrics used to gauge them – including employment.
Through August, US labour data show more than half of 2024’s unemployment rate increase stems from new entrants or re-entrants to the workforce – not layoffs. Many are seemingly those who left the labour force amid Covid-era chaos.
So while job growth continues, payrolls rose 0.1 per cent month-over-month and 1.5 per cent year-over-year in August. It just isn’t rising as much as the official workforce. That has boosted the unemployment rate to 4.2 per cent this August from 3.4 per cent last April – a 54-year low. This same factor underpins rising unemployment across much of Europe, Canada and beyond.
Yes, hiring has slowed since 2021 and 2022’s rapid rise. But that is largely normalcy’s return after reopening businesses rushed to rehire. Besides, hiring data and unemployment rate wiggles are normal in any expansion and bull market.
Take 2009-2020. After payrolls bottomed in 2010, annual growth bounced between 1.3 per cent in 2019 and 2.2 per cent in 2014. Today’s 1.5 per cent is right in that range. Normal. Nothing to fear!
But plenty do fear it – and fear of a false factor is always bullish. Don’t let their fretting fool you – labour data don’t threaten this expansion and bull market.
Ken Fisher is the founder, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer of Fisher Investments, a global investment adviser with $285 billion of assets under management
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Did you know?
Brunch has been around, is some form or another, for more than a century. The word was first mentioned in print in an 1895 edition of Hunter’s Weekly, after making the rounds among university students in Britain. The article, entitled Brunch: A Plea, argued the case for a later, more sociable weekend meal. “By eliminating the need to get up early on Sunday, brunch would make life brighter for Saturday night carousers. It would promote human happiness in other ways as well,” the piece read. “It is talk-compelling. It puts you in a good temper, it makes you satisfied with yourself and your fellow beings, it sweeps away the worries and cobwebs of the week.” More than 100 years later, author Guy Beringer’s words still ring true, especially in the UAE, where brunches are often used to mark special, sociable occasions.
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BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
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• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
Should late investors consider cryptocurrencies?
Wealth managers recommend late investors to have a balanced portfolio that typically includes traditional assets such as cash, government and corporate bonds, equities, commodities and commercial property.
They do not usually recommend investing in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies due to the risk and volatility associated with them.
“It has produced eye-watering returns for some, whereas others have lost substantially as this has all depended purely on timing and when the buy-in was. If someone still has about 20 to 25 years until retirement, there isn’t any need to take such risks,” Rupert Connor of Abacus Financial Consultant says.
He adds that if a person is interested in owning a business or growing a property portfolio to increase their retirement income, this can be encouraged provided they keep in mind the overall risk profile of these assets.
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Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
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Tomorrow 2021
While you're here
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Towering concerns
Pakistan World Cup squad
Sarfraz Ahmed (c), Fakhar Zaman, Imam-ul-Haq, Abid Ali, Babar Azam, Haris Sohail, Shoaib Malik, Mohammad Hafeez(subject to fitness), Imad Wasim, Shadab Khan, Hasan Ali, Faheem Ashraf, Junaid Khan, Shaheen Shah Afridi, Mohammad Hasnain
Two additions for England ODIs: Mohammad Amir and Asif Ali
57%20Seconds
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Dubai Creek Open in numbers
- The Dubai Creek Open is the 10th tournament on this year's Mena Tour
- It is the first of five events before the season-concluding Mena Tour Championship
- This week's field comprises 120 players, 21 of which are amateurs
- 15 previous Mena Tour winners are competing at Dubai Creek Golf and Yacht Club
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Tomorrow 2021
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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'My Son'
Director: Christian Carion
Starring: James McAvoy, Claire Foy, Tom Cullen, Gary Lewis
Rating: 2/5
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The studios taking part (so far)
- Punch
- Vogue Fitness
- Sweat
- Bodytree Studio
- The Hot House
- The Room
- Inspire Sports (Ladies Only)
- Cryo
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The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Part three: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
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SPECS
Mini John Cooper Works Clubman and Mini John Cooper Works Countryman
Engine: two-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 306hp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: JCW Clubman, Dh220,500; JCW Countryman, Dh225,500
The five pillars of Islam
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
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LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
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if you go
The flights
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Ticket prices
General admission Dh295 (under-three free)
Buy a four-person Family & Friends ticket and pay for only three tickets, so the fourth family member is free
Buy tickets at: wbworldabudhabi.com/en/tickets
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Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
Tomorrow 2021
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Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
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Saudi National Day
Race card
6.30pm: Handicap (TB) $68,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
7.05pm: Meydan Cup – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (Turf) 2,810m
7.40pm: UAE 2000 Guineas – Group 3 (TB) $125,000 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: Firebreak Stakes – Group 3 (TB) $130,000 (D) 1,600m
9.50pm: Meydan Classic – Conditions (TB) $$50,000 (T) 1,400m
9.25pm: Dubai Sprint – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (T) 1,200m
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The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
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About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
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• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
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Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23
UAE fixtures:
Men
Saturday, September 16 – 1.45pm, v New Zealand
Sunday, September 17 – 10.30am, v Australia; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Monday, September 18 – 2pm, v England; 7.15pm, v India
Tuesday, September 19 – 12.15pm, v Singapore; 5.30pm, v Sri Lanka
Thursday, September 21 – 2pm v Malaysia
Friday, September 22 – 3.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 3pm, grand final
Women
Saturday, September 16 – 5.15pm, v Australia
Sunday, September 17 – 2pm, v South Africa; 7.15pm, v New Zealand
Monday, September 18 – 5.30pm, v England
Tuesday, September 19 – 10.30am, v New Zealand; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Thursday, September 21 – 12.15pm, v Australia
Friday, September 22 – 1.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 1pm, grand final
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Sholto Byrnes: In today's times, what is Nato really good for?
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
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Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Sound of silence in South Asia
Fanar Haddad: The Iranian response will be gradual
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
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- Alistair Burt: Despite Brexit, Britain can remain a world power
- Sam Williams: Departure is influenced by its sense of place
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A Dog's Journey
Directed by: Gail Mancuso
Starring: Dennis Quaid, Josh Gad, Marg Helgenberger, Betty Gilpin, Kathryn Prescott
3 out of 5 stars
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Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
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Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
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Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
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Ramy%3A%20Season%203%2C%20Episode%201
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
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UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
SPECS
The specs: 2019 BMW X4
Price, base / as tested: Dh276,675 / Dh346,800
Engine: 3.0-litre turbocharged in-line six-cylinder
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 354hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 1,550rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 9.0L / 100km
Mina Al-Oraibi: Suleimani death casts a long shadow over decade ahead
Khaled Yacoub Oweis: Hezbollah bids to control Lebanon’s financial system
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Neighbourhood Watch
Why your domicile status is important
Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.
Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born.
UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.
A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.
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BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
Married Malala
Malala Yousafzai is enjoying married life, her father said.
The 24-year-old married Pakistan cricket executive Asser Malik last year in a small ceremony in the UK.
Ziauddin Yousafzai told The National his daughter was ‘very happy’ with her husband.
