US debt, the yen carry trade, global warming, labour interruptions, US Social Security’s potential future insolvency, Big Tech antitrust battles, declining birth rates – what do they all have in common? That they can’t have much real impact on stocks.
Yes, you read that right! Stocks are neither myopic nor far-sighted. They look about three to 30 months ahead – ignoring most super-short-term chatter and all ultra-long-term conjecture. Let me show you.
Financial commentary often amounts to mixes of very near-term events. Or they feature far-flung far-future speculation … especially if it involves doom and gloom or hopes of huge riches. None of this directly helps navigate capital markets.
Markets care little about what already happened, happens tomorrow – even less about what probably happens a decade hence.
Consider recent headlines: Yen carry trade talk. Earnings reports. Inflation numbers. US Federal Reserve blabber. Daily dissection of market wiggles. Is all that interesting? Maybe to you. Or me. But rarely to stocks. Why?
Consider: The stock market is a marvellous pricing mechanism – its basic job. It incorporates all publicly available data, opinions and forecasts into a current single price – near-instantaneously!
Yes, short-term prices can swing sharply. But such noise usually fades fast into prices far more accurately than you, I or anyone could come up with alone.
Also, much of what you read or hear isn’t really new. Daily stories often focus on economic or earnings data. That reflects the recent past – backward-looking realities which stocks largely and mostly already know and pre-priced.
How results compare to expectations may swing stocks briefly, but lasting effects are rare. Perhaps you can glean something from diving into results, trends or management commentary. But doing so ignores that stock prices already did that for you better than anyone can consistently.
Don’t fear the far future, either – at least anything further than about 30 months away. Stocks don’t! Why? Because further out, the future gets truly impossible to predict. Stocks only deal with that when it gets closer.
Take often-cited US Congressional Budget Office estimates. In 2011, the CBO projected 10-year Treasury yields would average 4.8 per cent over the 2011-2021 period, with the US dropping $940 billion on annual interest payments by 2021.
The reality? The 10-year yields averaged just 2.1 per cent, with 2021’s net interest outlays totalling about $350 billion. Whoops!
Or remember peak oil? Early this century, most “experts” posited conventional oil production had already peaked. Then, with a new technology fracking boom no one foresaw, America gushed crude.
Focus has since shifted to peak oil demand. The International Energy Agency claims it will come in 2029. Goldman Sachs says 2034. Exxon expects constant oil demand through 2050.
Even if one of them is right, oil demand won’t vanish thereafter. Certainly not in the next three to 30 months. Ignore it all. Stocks will.
Ditto for demographics, climate change and the dollar’s reserve currency status. I am not saying all these aren’t important … sociologically. Or that they can’t impact stocks someday. But in the next approximately three to 30 months? Nope!
Climate change and demographic shifts play out over decades, not months or years. Global de-dollarisation? This isn’t a real negative of import, given most countries are increasing dollar reliance.
China’s yuan – often feared as the buck’s replacement – accounted for a puny 2.3 per cent of global central bank reserves through 2023, versus the greenback’s 58.4 per cent. If that ever changes markedly, it won’t happen soon.
Even hullabaloo around Big Tech’s government battles is ultra-long term. August’s Google antitrust decision was four years in the making – and far from over. Appeals still loom for years!
Predictions on how these events will play out rest on current information. In the years or decades it takes for them to play out, our world will change in unimaginable ways.
Predictions’ underlying past assumptions get whacked, almost always. Ultra-long-term forecasts flop. Stocks never bother with them.
How does the outlook for that three-to-30-month sweet spot look now? Stocks’ swift rebound from mid-summer’s swoon tells you it is good for the economy when so many fear recession. And fear is bullish.
Stealth risks I said to monitor in January haven’t erupted. Hooray! Inflation has cooled, supply chain snarls are long gone. US lending is growing moderately. America’s money supply’s boom-turned-bust “contraction” stabilised smoothly.
If 2025 doesn’t bring big negatives, ones that haven’t been foreseen – and hence stocks haven’t pre-priced already – stocks should keep faring moderately well.
So, the next time you hear anyone fret something next month or 20 years distant, tell them to refocus – like stocks always do.
Ken Fisher is the founder, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer of Fisher Investments, a global investment adviser with $280 billion of assets under management
WE%20NO%20LONGER%20PREFER%20MOUNTAINS
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BANGLADESH SQUAD
Mashrafe Mortaza (captain), Tamim Iqbal, Liton Das, Soumya Sarkar, Mushfiqur Rahim (wicketkeeper), Mahmudullah, Shakib Al Hasan (vice captain), Mohammad Mithun, Sabbir Rahaman, Mosaddek Hossain, Mohammad Saifuddin, Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Rubel Hossain, Mustafizur Rahman, Abu Jayed (Reporting by Rohith Nair in Bengaluru Editing by Amlan Chakraborty)
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFixtures%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3ESaturday%2C%20May%2028%2C%20United%20States%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3ESunday%2C%20May%2029%2C%20United%20States%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3ETuesday%2C%20May%2031%2C%20UAE%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3EWednesday%2C%20June%201%2C%20UAE%20v%20United%20States%3Cbr%3EFriday%2C%20June%203%2C%20UAE%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3ESaturday%2C%20June%204%2C%20UAE%20v%20United%20States%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20squad%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAhmed%20Raza%20(captain)%2C%20Chirag%20Suri%2C%20Muhammad%20Waseem%2C%20Vriitya%20Aravind%2C%20CP%20Rizwan%2C%20Basil%20Hameed%2C%20Rohan%20Mustafa%2C%20Kashif%20Daud%2C%20Karthik%20Meiyappan%2C%20Zahoor%20Khan%2C%20Junaid%20Siddique%2C%20Alishan%20Sharafu%2C%20Akif%20Raja%2C%20Rahul%20Bhatia%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETable%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Oman%2032%2019%2011%2040%20%2B0.156%3Cbr%3E2.%20Scotland%2016%2011%203%2024%20%2B0.574%3Cbr%3E3.%20UAE%2018%2010%206%2022%20%2B0.22%3Cbr%3E4.%20Namibia%2014%207%207%2014%20%2B0.096%3Cbr%3E5.%20United%20States%2016%207%209%2014%20-0.229%3Cbr%3E6.%20Nepal%2012%206%206%2012%20%2B0.113%3Cbr%3E7.%20Papua%20New%20Guinea%2020%201%2019%202%20-0.856%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
FORSPOKEN
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Company%20of%20Heroes%203
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Star%20Wars%20Jedi%3A%20Survivor
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Suicide%20Squad%3A%20Kill%20the%20Justice%20League
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Street%20Fighter%206
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Diablo%20IV
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Baldur's%20Gate%203
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The%20Legend%20of%20Zelda%3A%20Tears%20of%20The%20Kingdom
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Marvel's%20Spider-Man%202
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Assassin's%20Creed%20Mirage
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Starfield
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Bethesda%20Game%20Studios%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Bethesda%20Softworks%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20PC%2C%20Xbox%0D%3Cbr%3ERelease%20date%3A%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
WWE TLC results
Asuka won the SmackDown Women's title in a TLC triple threat with Becky Lynch and Charlotte Flair
Dean Ambrose won the Intercontinental title against Seth Rollins
Daniel Bryan retained the WWE World Heavyweight Championship against AJ Styles
Ronda Rousey retained the Raw Women's Championship against Nia Jax
Rey Mysterio beat Randy Orton in a chairs match
Finn Balor defeated Drew McIntyre
Natalya beat Ruby Riott in a tables match
Braun Strowman beat Baron Corbin in a TLC match
Sheamus and Cesaro retained the SmackDown Tag Titles against The Usos and New Day
R-Truth and Carmella won the Mixed Match Challenge by beating Jinder Mahal and Alicia Fox
RoboCop%3A%20Rogue%20City
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MATCH INFO
Rugby World Cup (all times UAE)
Final: England v South Africa, Saturday, 1pm
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Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
Famous left-handers
- Marie Curie
- Jimi Hendrix
- Leonardo Di Vinci
- David Bowie
- Paul McCartney
- Albert Einstein
- Jack the Ripper
- Barack Obama
- Helen Keller
- Joan of Arc
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
- Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
- Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
- Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
Sri Lanka-India Test series schedule
1st Test July 26-30 in Galle
2nd Test August 3-7 in Colombo
3rd Test August 12-16 in Pallekele
ELECTION%20RESULTS
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
TO%20CATCH%20A%20KILLER
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WITHIN%20SAND
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Match info
Bournemouth 1 (King 45 1')
Arsenal 2 (Lerma 30' og, Aubameyang 67')
Man of the Match: Sead Kolasinac (Arsenal)
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%20train%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%20and%20synchronous%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20power%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E800hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20torque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E950Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEight-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E25.7kWh%20lithium-ion%3Cbr%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%203.4sec%3Cbr%3E0-200km%2Fh%3A%2011.4sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E312km%2Fh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20electric-only%20range%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2060km%20(claimed)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Q3%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1.2m%20(estimate)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
The specs
Engine: 3.6 V6
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Power: 295bhp
Torque: 353Nm
Price: Dh155,000
On sale: now
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
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Profile of RentSher
Started: October 2015 in India, November 2016 in UAE
Founders: Harsh Dhand; Vaibhav and Purvashi Doshi
Based: Bangalore, India and Dubai, UAE
Sector: Online rental marketplace
Size: 40 employees
Investment: $2 million
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
EU's%2020-point%20migration%20plan
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Stamp%20duty%20timeline
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Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
The%20specs
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Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
'Skin'
Dir: Guy Nattiv
Starring: Jamie Bell, Danielle McDonald, Bill Camp, Vera Farmiga
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
Company%20profile
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