This year is set to be a record-breaking one for elections, with more than two billion voters going to the polls in 50 countries.
The US, Europe, India, Mexico and a host of other countries are holding elections, with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak adding to the tally by calling a snap vote on July 4.
The world will be holding its breath to see whether Donald Trump retakes the White House in November, and what happens if he does.
We live in a new age of political extremes, amid divisive culture wars, trade wars, cold wars and outright shooting wars.
The stakes could not be higher, with populism on the march, dictators flexing their muscles and democracies losing faith in themselves.
So far, global stock markets have shrugged off the uncertainty to hit record highs. Investors appear to be more concerned over the direction of interest rates, rather than politics.
So, have politics and stock markets become uncoupled? Not quite.
Markets famously hate uncertainty, and elections bring plenty of that. Especially today.
History suggests that investors can expect lower returns and volatility during an election year, says Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer of Century Financial in Dubai.
“Since 1932, the US S&P 500 has returned 6.2 per cent on average during election years, but 9.6 per cent during non-election years. Market volatility also tends to be higher,” he says.
This year’s US elections could certainly be more turbulent than most, so do markets have a preference?
Mr Trump’s first term was pretty good for equities with the S&P 500 delivering an average total return of 16 per cent a year, Mr Valecha says.
It has returned only 12 per cent a year under President Joe Biden, although Mr Valecha adds: “Economic conditions have been more challenging, with inflation elevated and interest rates at multi-decade highs.”
Inflation and interest rates were close to zero throughout Mr Trump's term, although he did catch the tail end of the Covid-19 pandemic. That triggered a global crash in March 2020, but markets quickly rallied on a synchronised blast of fiscal and monetary stimulus.
So, which candidate would be better for markets this time?
Mr Biden has been pumping money into the US economy through his trillion-dollar Inflation Reduction Act, which diverts funds into green industries.
Mr Trump would also look to stimulate the economy, but by cutting taxes instead, so the two could even each other out.
What Mr Trump brings is potential uncertainty, says Jason Hollands, managing director at fund platform Bestinvest by Evelyn Partners.
“If he wins, then trade wars could be back on the agenda as he has pledged a 10 per cent tariff on all imports to the US, rising to a whopping 60 per cent on Chinese ones.”
Mr Trump has also stated he will not reappoint Jerome Powell as chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Mr Hollands adds.
“He has been highly critical of Fed decisions, so markets might fear Fed independence is under threat.”
Much also depends on which party controls the Senate and House of Representatives.
Quilter Investors polled 21 leading fund managers, including BlackRock, Fidelity and Pimco, to find the most market-friendly solution.
The answer? A Biden presidency with Republican control of the Senate, with a split in power generally favoured over one-party dominance.
Fund managers are not afraid of a clean sweep for Mr Trump, though. Only 15 per cent saw a negative impact for US equities should Mr Trump return to power and Republicans win control of Congress, too.
It might spell bad news for European markets, though, where more than six in 10 fund managers anticipate a negative impact from import tariffs and Mr Trump’s equivocal attitude to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The survey showed that fund managers see the relationship between the US and China cited as the most likely source of volatility, but Quilter Investors investment strategist Lindsay James says: “Worryingly, markets have not priced this in.”
In India, incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition are widely expected to win, extending a 10-year period in office.
That is one of the longest periods of stable government since India gained independence, says Mr Hollands.
“While aspects of the BJP’s Hindu nationalist agenda are controversial, the party is perceived as business-friendly and under Mr Modi’s tenure, the country has undergone meaningful, structural reforms.”
Although western democracies may appear to be in turmoil, every serious ruling party has to follow broadly the same script, says Tony Hallside, chief executive at Dubai-based brokers STP Partners.
“Despite political polarisation, they share the common goal of a robust economy. Investors should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies, but they shouldn’t panic,” he adds.
In the UK, markets have shown a preference for the Conservative Party, due to its support for free markets. Today, the left-wing Labour Party appears to be cruising towards victory, with leader Keir Starmer 20 points ahead of Mr Sunak in the polls. However, investors are not too worried.
After 14 years of frustrating Conservative rule, they are ready for change, just as most British people seem to be.
Mr Hollands says that Labour will struggle to put into effect radical economic policies. “Taxes are already at a 70-year high, while the bond markets won't tolerate a government borrowing blitz.”
In this busy year for elections, investors should resist the temptation to second-guess results, says Anu Gaggar, vice-president of capital markets strategy at Fidelity.
“No one can predict with any certainty which party will win, let alone what sectors, industries or stocks may benefit from the next administration’s policies,” she adds.
Another issue is that politicians make all sorts of promises while on the campaign trail, but rarely live up to them.
After the election is over, business often continues as usual, Ms Gaggar says.
“Markets are non-partisan, so it’s very important not to base your investment strategy on the outcome of elections.”
Once the results are in, markets seem to settle down regardless of which party wins, Mr Valecha says.
“Typically, investors return to focus on fundamental factors such as monetary policy, fiscal policy, economic growth, labour markets and corporate profits,” he adds.
Mr Trump could prove an exception to that rule, as he so often is. Markets are not too worried about politics today. That could change in November.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
TRAINING FOR TOKYO
A typical week's training for Sebastian, who is competing at the ITU Abu Dhabi World Triathlon on March 8-9:
- Four swim sessions (14km)
- Three bike sessions (200km)
- Four run sessions (45km)
- Two strength and conditioning session (two hours)
- One session therapy session at DISC Dubai
- Two-three hours of stretching and self-maintenance of the body
ITU Abu Dhabi World Triathlon
For more information go to www.abudhabi.triathlon.org.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
More on Quran memorisation:
More on animal trafficking
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The five pillars of Islam
'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
RESULTS
5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000, 2,400m
Winner: Recordman, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer)
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000, 2,200m
Winner: AF Taraha, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic Prestige (PA) Dh110,000, 1,400m
Winner: Dhafra, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic Prestige (PA) Dh110,000, 1,400m
Winner: Maqam, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh85,000, 1,600m
Winner: AF Momtaz, Fernando Jara, Musabah Al Muhairi
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000, 1,600m
Winner: Optimizm, Patrick Cosgrave, Abdallah Al Hammadi
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Family reunited
Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe was born and raised in Tehran and studied English literature before working as a translator in the relief effort for the Japanese International Co-operation Agency in 2003.
She moved to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies before moving to the World Health Organisation as a communications officer.
She came to the UK in 2007 after securing a scholarship at London Metropolitan University to study a master's in communication management and met her future husband through mutual friends a month later.
The couple were married in August 2009 in Winchester and their daughter was born in June 2014.
She was held in her native country a year later.
The%20Woman%20King%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Gina%20Prince-Bythewood%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Viola%20Davis%2C%20Thuso%20Mbedu%2C%20Sheila%20Atim%2C%20Lashana%20Lynch%2C%20John%20Boyega%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How Filipinos in the UAE invest
A recent survey of 10,000 Filipino expatriates in the UAE found that 82 per cent have plans to invest, primarily in property. This is significantly higher than the 2014 poll showing only two out of 10 Filipinos planned to invest.
Fifty-five percent said they plan to invest in property, according to the poll conducted by the New Perspective Media Group, organiser of the Philippine Property and Investment Exhibition. Acquiring a franchised business or starting up a small business was preferred by 25 per cent and 15 per cent said they will invest in mutual funds. The rest said they are keen to invest in insurance (3 per cent) and gold (2 per cent).
Of the 5,500 respondents who preferred property as their primary investment, 54 per cent said they plan to make the purchase within the next year. Manila was the top location, preferred by 53 per cent.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl
Power: 153hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 200Nm at 4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Price: Dh99,000
On sale: now
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Who is Mohammed Al Halbousi?
The new speaker of Iraq’s parliament Mohammed Al Halbousi is the youngest person ever to serve in the role.
The 37-year-old was born in Al Garmah in Anbar and studied civil engineering in Baghdad before going into business. His development company Al Hadeed undertook reconstruction contracts rebuilding parts of Fallujah’s infrastructure.
He entered parliament in 2014 and served as a member of the human rights and finance committees until 2017. In August last year he was appointed governor of Anbar, a role in which he has struggled to secure funding to provide services in the war-damaged province and to secure the withdrawal of Shia militias. He relinquished the post when he was sworn in as a member of parliament on September 3.
He is a member of the Al Hal Sunni-based political party and the Sunni-led Coalition of Iraqi Forces, which is Iraq’s largest Sunni alliance with 37 seats from the May 12 election.
He maintains good relations with former Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki’s State of Law Coaliton, Hadi Al Amiri’s Badr Organisation and Iranian officials.
The%C2%A0specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204-cylinder%202-litre%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E9-speed%20automatic%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E252%20brake%20horsepower%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E352Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh146%2C700%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sideup%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202019%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Waleed%20Rashed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cairo%2C%20Egypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20technology%2C%20e-commerce%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%241.2%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Launch%20Africa%20VC%2C%20500%20Global%2C%20Riyadh%20Angels%2C%20Alex%20Angels%2C%20Al%20Tuwaijri%20Fund%20and%20Saudi%20angel%20investor%20Faisal%20Al%20Abdulsalam%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,000mm, Winners: Mumayaza, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m, Winners: Sharkh, Pat Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi
6pm: The President’s Cup Prep - Conditions (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 2,200m, Winner: Somoud, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roualle
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh90,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Harrab, Ryan Curatolo, Jean de Roualle
7pm: Abu Dhabi Equestrian Gold Cup - Prestige (PA) Dh125,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Hameem, Adrie de Vries, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7.30pm: Al Ruwais – Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 (T) 1,200m, Winner: AF Alwajel, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
8pm: Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m, Winner: Nibras Passion, Bernardo Pinheiro, Ismail Mohammed
