Do markets suffer from halitosis? Bears say so, arguing this bull market reeks of “bad breadth” (referring to only a handful of stocks driving the market), sure to sour stocks’ fortunes.
First they claimed the "Magnificent Seven” US tech stocks alone drove it higher. As some slump, they harp on instead about a subset deemed the “Fab Four", or just the “Blazing Two". Will it soon be the “Wonderful One"?
Tune out all that nonsense.
This bull market’s sweet smell wafts far and wide, despite claims otherwise – it has all along. If anything, persistent talk about “bad breadth” shows only that more gains await. Let me explain.
Yes, the Magnificent Seven, referring to Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla, boomed after 2022’s low.
Some of those tech and tech-like stocks have wobbled lately. But most remain much higher, with Nvidia and Meta leading the pack.
Bears point to these firms’ heavy exposure to artificial intelligence as “evidence” that this bull market is mostly AI hype.
Wrong. How to know? Look where tech isn’t huge – like Europe.
While the eurozone boasts a few tech mini-hubs, like the Netherlands, the sector is only 14 per cent of bloc market cap versus the world’s 23 per cent. Yet eurozone stocks are up 4.7 per cent this year through April, right in line with global stocks’ 4.6 per cent.
Dig deeper. In local currencies to avoid skew, indexes hitting all-time total return highs this year include: Australia’s ASX 200, Britain’s FTSE 100, the MSCI Denmark, Ireland’s ISEQ, Germany’s DAX, the MSCI India, Italy’s MIB, Japan’s TOPIX, the Netherlands’ AEX and Spain’s IBEX.
Of those, only the Netherlands has much tech exposure. The rest mostly feature industrials, consumer durables, financials, health care or even utilities.
This bull market wasn’t ever just the Magnificent Seven, the Fab Four or the Blazing Two.
Yes, return magnitudes vary. But 57 per cent of the MSCI All-Country World Index’s more than 2,800 stocks rose in the 12 months ended April 16. In full, 932 stocks also outperformed its 17.5 per cent return. This fabulous bull market is and was significantly global and far broader than fantasised.
We remain early in this process. Remember investing legend Sir John Templeton’s wisdom: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”
We didn’t simply fast-forward from 2022’s deep, dark pessimism – when most thought the world was doomed to horrific recessions – into euphoria.
More like a grinding, gradual back and forth climb towards early optimism, as I detailed in March.
Consider history’s bubbles for a deeper dig at this.
Leading to the burst of 2000’s US dot-com bubble, initial public offerings flooded markets for years. While US IPOs tallied about $123 billion in proceeds in the 1980s, that soared to more than $463 billion in the 1990s, adjusting for inflation. That frothy ride culminated with 1999’s $96 billion. Then 2000 added another $93 billion.
Over time, these offerings’ quality fell as investment bankers thirsting after huge fees pushed any slop to market. Even 2021’s froth saw myriad low-quality special-purpose acquisition companies debut.
Where are today’s IPOs?
Some analysts note total listings are rising. True, but that is an increase from rock-bottom levels – 2022 and 2023 marked the lowest two-year stretch for US IPO proceeds since 1984-85, after adjusting for inflation.
Globally, 2023 featured the lowest volumes in a decade. Hence, while $7.8 billion in first-quarter US IPO proceeds has some optimism, we are aeons from 2021 – when full-year proceeds topped $100 billion and Spacs (now near non-existent) raked in even more than that. Most were far flimsier than today’s higher-quality issues.
So, no, we aren’t near euphoria – which lingering Fab Four obsession proves. Bubble talk never flourishes in actual bubbles. Then, people are blind to flaws. To me, sentiment still seems barely optimistic.
Against this, we have a massively misunderstood return of normal, pre-pandemic economic growth and inflation rates.
Consider this. Before 2020’s collapse, the world economy routinely grew about 3 per cent. Then Covid skewed economic data wildly, with global GDP imploding minus 2.8 per cent in 2020.
Data from the International Monetary Fund for 2021 shows global GDP growing a red-hot 6.3 per cent. That reverted in 2022 to a historically normal 3.5 per cent.
The US's “disappointing” 1.6 per cent first-quarter growth? Not out of line with normal pre-pandemic fluctuations – and better than pundits claimed.
Strong imports – a sign of healthy domestic demand – and inventory depletion both detracted from growth. But private sector components, including consumer spending, business investment and residential real estate, grew by 2.6 per cent on an annualised basis. Fine growth.
Sceptical doubting of normal growth’s return is classic bull market fuel.
That people can’t see this, but instead grouse over allegedly bad breadth, is truly rosy news.
Ken Fisher is the founder, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer of Fisher Investments, a global investment adviser with $250 billion of assets under management
Where to donate in the UAE
The Emirates Charity Portal
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
Al Noor Special Needs Centre
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Emirates Airline Foundation
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
Emirates Red Crescent
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Noor Dubai Foundation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
LIST OF INVITEES
Shergo Kurdi (am)
Rayhan Thomas
Saud Al Sharee (am)
Min Woo Lee
Todd Clements
Matthew Jordan
AbdulRahman Al Mansour (am)
Matteo Manassero
Alfie Plant
Othman Al Mulla
Shaun Norris
How to donate
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Company%20profile
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
WandaVision
Starring: Elizabeth Olsen, Paul Bettany
Directed by: Matt Shakman
Rating: Four stars
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl, 48V hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh359,000
On sale: now
The specs: 2018 Chevrolet Trailblazer
Price, base / as tested Dh99,000 / Dh132,000
Engine 3.6L V6
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power 275hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 350Nm @ 3,700rpm
Fuel economy combined 12.2L / 100km
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Keep it fun and engaging
Stuart Ritchie, director of wealth advice at AES International, says children cannot learn something overnight, so it helps to have a fun routine that keeps them engaged and interested.
“I explain to my daughter that the money I draw from an ATM or the money on my bank card doesn’t just magically appear – it’s money I have earned from my job. I show her how this works by giving her little chores around the house so she can earn pocket money,” says Mr Ritchie.
His daughter is allowed to spend half of her pocket money, while the other half goes into a bank account. When this money hits a certain milestone, Mr Ritchie rewards his daughter with a small lump sum.
He also recommends books that teach the importance of money management for children, such as The Squirrel Manifesto by Ric Edelman and Jean Edelman.
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Teams
Punjabi Legends Owners: Inzamam-ul-Haq and Intizar-ul-Haq; Key player: Misbah-ul-Haq
Pakhtoons Owners: Habib Khan and Tajuddin Khan; Key player: Shahid Afridi
Maratha Arabians Owners: Sohail Khan, Ali Tumbi, Parvez Khan; Key player: Virender Sehwag
Bangla Tigers Owners: Shirajuddin Alam, Yasin Choudhary, Neelesh Bhatnager, Anis and Rizwan Sajan; Key player: TBC
Colombo Lions Owners: Sri Lanka Cricket; Key player: TBC
Kerala Kings Owners: Hussain Adam Ali and Shafi Ul Mulk; Key player: Eoin Morgan
Venue Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Format 10 overs per side, matches last for 90 minutes
Timeline October 25: Around 120 players to be entered into a draft, to be held in Dubai; December 21: Matches start; December 24: Finals
Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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