Investors entered 2024 in jubilant mood, anticipating a whopping six interest rate cuts over the course of the year that would slash borrowing costs and fire up the next stage of the economic recovery.
Now, they're waking up to the fact that it's not going to happen, with markets now pricing in just two rate cuts. We may get none at all.
It’s largely the fault of the US economy, which continues to boom, keeping inflation high. The rising oil price isn't helping.
The US Federal Reserve dare not cut in these conditions, with chairman Jerome Powell bemoaning a “lack of progress” towards its objectives.
The stock market boom has faded and investors are having a serious rethink. Here’s what it means for the main asset classes – and your investments.
Stock markets
The S&P 500 made a flying start to 2024, hitting a record high of 5,264.85 on March 28. It’s now back below 5,000, but still up 4.73 per cent year-to-date.
As well as the US economy, the Israel-Iran stand-off is also rattling investors. Share prices surge and plunge by the day, depending on the latest war talk.
Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets, says both sides appear to be stepping back from war right now.
“This should hopefully remove the fears within equity and energy markets,” he adds.
The prospect of higher interest rates for longer have raised concerns that the global economy could be heading for a downturn, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
“Manufacturing across Europe has remained weak for months, albeit the pace of the contraction has slowed,” he adds.
Everything rests on the oil price, says Jeremy Batstone-Carr, chief global economist at Raymond James.
The recent sell-off was driven by crude climbing above $90 a barrel, but it has since eased to around $85, similar to a year ago.
“The supply of oil on to world markets remains unrestricted. If the Middle East conflict escalated to the point where crude deliveries were impacted, that would be another thing altogether,” Mr Batstone-Carr adds.
Outlook: If oil climbs past $100 and heads towards $150, hang on to your hats.
Bonds
2024 was supposed to be a big year for government bonds in general and US Treasuries in particular.
The theory was that falling interest rates would slash bond yields and drive bond prices up. Now, the opposite is happening.
Yields on two-year US Treasuries started the year at 4.23 per cent. By April 19, they have climbed to 4.97 per cent, a rise of 17.4 per cent. That's a huge leap in bond market terms.
It’s bad news for those who bought bonds in the hope of making a capital gain when prices rose.
“Rising Treasury yields show that investors are coming round to the possibility that the Fed will opt to stand pat on policy throughout the remainder of the year,” Mr Batstone-Carr says.
However, Swiss private bank Julius Baer has warned that the negativity may have been overdone and today’s lower bond prices could be a buying opportunity.
Outlook: The great bond price rally may have to wait.
Cash
Skyrocketing interest rates may have been bad news for the economy, but they were terrific for savers, who finally got a decent return on their deposits after years of near-zero returns.
Many will have been dreading seeing rates fall this year, but 2024 hasn't been as painful as expected.
While long-term fixed rate bonds have fallen, as banks anticipate lower interest rates further down the line, easy access and two-year fixed rate savings bonds pay up to 5 per cent, says Savings Champion founder Anna Bowes.
“Five-year savings bonds have dipped below 4.5 per cent but may still tempt some,” she adds.
Outlook: Cash is cooking for now.
Gold
Higher interest rates would normally spell bad news for gold, which doesn’t pay interest, as investors can get higher yields on rival safe havens cash and bonds.
These are not normal times, says Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank.
“The yellow metal continues to surprise traders and analysts, having surged more than 15 per cent this year at a time when dollar and bond yields have risen strongly, while expectations for rate cuts have slumped,” he adds.
This is on top of last year’s 13 per cent gain, but gold appears to have hit a ceiling at just below $2,400 an ounce, Mr Hansen says.
Gold souq in Dubai – in pictures
Conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East, central bank buying and rising debt in the major economies may continue to support the price.
“Fear of missing the rally creates a strong buy-on-dip mentality, too,” he adds.
However, two failed attempts to climb above $2,400 “may signal a short-term top followed by an overdue period of consolidation, or perhaps even a correction”, Mr Hansen cautions.
Carsten Menke, head of next generation research at Julius Baer, says gold’s continued rally is a “head scratcher”.
“We lift our price targets, but still see more downside than upside in the medium to longer term,” he adds.
Outlook: Gold investors have had their fun and should calm down a little.
US dollar
Many expected the US dollar to fall in 2024 as US inflation eased and the Fed started cutting. Instead, it’s up another 3.5 per cent against the euro and almost 10 per cent against the Japanese yen in 2024.
Like gold, investors see the world’s reserve currency as a safe port in a storm, whether economic or political. So, the past month has been very good for the greenback.
Escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East have only added to the US dollar’s overall bullish tone
Fawad Razaqzada,
market analyst, City Index and Forex.com
Higher for longer applies to the US dollar too, says Mr Razaqzada.
“Escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East have only added to the US dollar’s overall bullish tone.”
Outlook: King dollar still rules (for now).
Bitcoin
This was supposed to be a blockbuster year for Bitcoin, as US regulatory approval of 11 spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) drove up demand, while April’s “halving” event slashed the supply of new coins.
Unusually for crazy crypto, the story appeared to be going according to the script, with the price shooting above $70,000 to hit a new record high.
It then slumped to $61,000. It's back above $66,000, which still represents an increase of 50 per cent year-to-date.
James Sullivan, group general counsel at crypto exchange Bitstamp, says halvings happen every four years and history shows that Bitcoin's value tends to rise significantly in the months that follow.
The risk is that the halving has already been priced in.
“As any investor knows, markets do not follow rules or logic and nothing is certain, certainly in crypto,” Mr Sullivan says.
Outlook: Crypto is still impossible to call, but increasingly difficult to ignore.
History's medical milestones
1799 - First small pox vaccine administered
1846 - First public demonstration of anaesthesia in surgery
1861 - Louis Pasteur published his germ theory which proved that bacteria caused diseases
1895 - Discovery of x-rays
1923 - Heart valve surgery performed successfully for first time
1928 - Alexander Fleming discovers penicillin
1953 - Structure of DNA discovered
1952 - First organ transplant - a kidney - takes place
1954 - Clinical trials of birth control pill
1979 - MRI, or magnetic resonance imaging, scanned used to diagnose illness and injury.
1998 - The first adult live-donor liver transplant is carried out
Cinco in numbers
Dh3.7 million
The estimated cost of Victoria Swarovski’s gem-encrusted Michael Cinco wedding gown
46
The number, in kilograms, that Swarovski’s wedding gown weighed.
1,000
The hours it took to create Cinco’s vermillion petal gown, as seen in his atelier [note, is the one he’s playing with in the corner of a room]
50
How many looks Cinco has created in a new collection to celebrate Ballet Philippines’ 50th birthday
3,000
The hours needed to create the butterfly gown worn by Aishwarya Rai to the 2018 Cannes Film Festival.
1.1 million
The number of followers that Michael Cinco’s Instagram account has garnered.
How Beautiful this world is!
The specs: Lamborghini Aventador SVJ
Price, base: Dh1,731,672
Engine: 6.5-litre V12
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 770hp @ 8,500rpm
Torque: 720Nm @ 6,750rpm
Fuel economy: 19.6L / 100km
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
At a glance
Fixtures All matches start at 9.30am, at ICC Academy, Dubai. Admission is free
Thursday UAE v Ireland; Saturday UAE v Ireland; Jan 21 UAE v Scotland; Jan 23 UAE v Scotland
UAE squad Rohan Mustafa (c), Ashfaq Ahmed, Ghulam Shabber, Rameez Shahzad, Mohammed Boota, Mohammed Usman, Adnan Mufti, Shaiman Anwar, Ahmed Raza, Imran Haider, Qadeer Ahmed, Mohammed Naveed, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan
Thor: Ragnarok
Dir: Taika Waititi
Starring: Chris Hemsworth, Tom Hiddleston, Cate Blanchett, Jeff Goldblum, Mark Ruffalo, Tessa Thompson
Four stars
MATCH INFO
Europa League final
Who: Marseille v Atletico Madrid
Where: Parc OL, Lyon, France
When: Wednesday, 10.45pm kick off (UAE)
TV: BeIN Sports
2018 ICC World Twenty20 Asian Western Regional Qualifier
The top three teams progress to the Asia Qualifier
Final: UAE beat Qatar by nine wickets
Third-place play-off: Kuwait beat Saudi Arabia by five runs
Table
1 UAE 5 5 0 10
2 Qatar 5 4 1 8
3 Saudi 5 3 2 6
4 Kuwait 5 2 3 4
5 Bahrain 5 1 4 2
6 Maldives 5 0 5 0
ATP WORLD No 1
2004 Roger Federer
2005 Roger Federer
2006 Roger Federer
2007 Roger Federer
2008 Rafael Nadal
2009 Roger Federer
2010 Rafael Nadal
2011 Novak Djokovic
2012 Novak Djokovic
2013 Rafael Nadal
2014 Novak Djokovic
2015 Novak Djokovic
2016 Andy Murray
2017 Rafael Nadal
2018 Novak Djokovic
2019 Rafael Nadal
The Good Liar
Starring: Helen Mirren, Ian McKellen
Directed by: Bill Condon
Three out of five stars
Abaya trends
The utilitarian robe held dear by Arab women is undergoing a change that reveals it as an elegant and graceful garment available in a range of colours and fabrics, while retaining its traditional appeal.
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E640hp%20at%206%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E850Nm%20from%202%2C300-4%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E11.9L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDh749%2C800%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Swiss fly direct from the UAE to Zurich from Dh2,855 return, including taxes.
The chalet
Chalet N is currently open in winter only, between now and April 21. During the ski season, starting on December 11, a week’s rental costs from €210,000 (Dh898,431) per week for the whole property, which has 22 beds in total, across six suites, three double rooms and a children’s suite. The price includes all scheduled meals, a week’s ski pass, Wi-Fi, parking, transfers between Munich, Innsbruck or Zurich airports and one 50-minute massage per person. Private ski lessons cost from €360 (Dh1,541) per day. Halal food is available on request.
Turkish Ladies
Various artists, Sony Music Turkey
Kibsons%20Cares
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERecycling%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fstrong%3EAny%20time%20you%20receive%20a%20Kibsons%20order%2C%20you%20can%20return%20your%20cardboard%20box%20to%20the%20drivers.%20They%E2%80%99ll%20be%20happy%20to%20take%20it%20off%20your%20hands%20and%20ensure%20it%20gets%20reused%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EKind%20to%20health%20and%20planet%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESolar%20%E2%80%93%2025-50%25%20of%20electricity%20saved%3Cbr%3EWater%20%E2%80%93%2075%25%20of%20water%20reused%3Cbr%3EBiofuel%20%E2%80%93%20Kibsons%20fleet%20to%20get%2020%25%20more%20mileage%20per%20litre%20with%20biofuel%20additives%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESustainable%20grocery%20shopping%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ENo%20antibiotics%3Cbr%3ENo%20added%20hormones%3Cbr%3ENo%20GMO%3Cbr%3ENo%20preservatives%3Cbr%3EMSG%20free%3Cbr%3E100%25%20natural%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Rebel%20Moon%20%E2%80%93%20Part%20Two%3A%20The%20Scargiver%20review%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Zack%20Snyder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sofia%20Boutella%2C%20Charlie%20Hunnam%2C%20Ed%20Skrein%2C%20Sir%20Anthony%20Hopkins%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Polarised public
31% in UK say BBC is biased to left-wing views
19% in UK say BBC is biased to right-wing views
19% in UK say BBC is not biased at all
Source: YouGov
Mia Man’s tips for fermentation
- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut
- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.
- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.
- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.
hall of shame
SUNDERLAND 2002-03
No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.
SUNDERLAND 2005-06
Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.
HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19
Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.
ASTON VILLA 2015-16
Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.
FULHAM 2018-19
Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.
LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.
BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66
When Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi
Known as The Lady of Arabic Song, Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi on November 28, 1971, as part of celebrations for the fifth anniversary of the accession of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan as Ruler of Abu Dhabi. A concert hall was constructed for the event on land that is now Al Nahyan Stadium, behind Al Wahda Mall. The audience were treated to many of Kulthum's most well-known songs as part of the sold-out show, including Aghadan Alqak and Enta Omri.
