So far, so good! My 2024 outlook called for a good-to-great year, and the 4.8 per cent global returns up until February 27 speak to just that. More gains await.
One key reason? Sentiment. Stocks always move most on the gap between reality and expectations, so gauging the latter is key to any outlook.
There are hard ways to assess this. But also easy ones anyone with web access can do.
Today, easy or hard, both methods reveal dourness dominates – paving the bullish road forward.
Legendary investor Sir John Templeton famously said: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”
Recent years are examples: After 2020’s rocket ship market recovery from Covid lockdown lows – itself born in despair – sentiment warmed unusually fast in 2021.
Frothy pockets emerged in speculative assets like crypto and special purpose acquisition company initial public offerings, making stocks susceptible to negative surprises.
Then came Ukraine, inflation, central bank rate hikes, supply chain chaos and more. The result? The small-sized bear market in 2022.
Yet, by October 2022, long-running fears drove irrational pessimism, ushering in the positive surprise that birthed this beautiful bull market.
Now, sentiment has warmed somewhat – to scepticism.
Consider this: The Bank of America’s February fund manager survey revealed the most bullishness since January 2022, while many other surveys show similar outlooks.
Yet, bears take this too far, arguing that we fast-forwarded to optimism … even euphoria!
They point to stale fears like the Israel-Gaza war and eurozone economic weakness as “evidence” investors are too cheery, setting stocks up to fall – while claiming only a handful of stocks (the Magnificent Seven) underpin this bull market.
Wrong! Nearly a third of global stocks lead the world in the year-to-date.
So, how can you see sentiment relatively clearly? One tough way my company does, but you probably can’t replicate, is illustrative: Plotting professional sentiment bell curves.
Wall Street forecasts both reflect and influence sentiment. My company collects dozens of them from everywhere.
The aim? Revealing which outcomes are widely expected and discussed … and which aren’t. This doesn’t reveal what will happen – stocks pre-price common forecasts and do something different.
But it shows what people think will happen and hence is already priced in stocks – a sentiment signal.
Consider median S&P 500 forecasts versus actual returns in recent years: At 2018’s start, the median forecast saw 5.3 per cent gains excluding dividends. Reality? Stocks fell 6.2 per cent.
In 2019, the median was 15.8 per cent gains – yet stocks crushed it, rising 28.9 per cent.
Last year's forecasts versus expectations were at 9.4 per cent, way below the actual 24.2 per cent.
Starting this year, the median was just 1.8 per cent – way below US stocks’ long-term 10.2 per cent annualised average return without dividends, which includes bear markets. It’s hard to see 1.8 per cent as “too optimistic”.
Don’t stop at median forecasts. Look deeper.
Out of 54 professional S&P 500 2024 forecasts, 40 cluster between 2.9 per cent and 9 per cent returns – while nine see declines worse than 3 per cent. None see returns exceeding 17.1 per cent.
The greater prevalence of lacklustre or negative returns than double-digit gains show you sentiment isn’t near euphoria. It is middling at most.
The relative void above 10 per cent suggests above-average gains. All this is hard to do.
There are easier tools you can use. One: Track how economic data compares to estimates.
You can find consensus forecasts for global gross domestic product, inflation, employment, purchasing managers’ indexes and more on many financial and economic news websites.
Then, as outcomes are announced, compare the results to the expectations. Are they worse than expected? Then, sentiment is probably too optimistic.
Are they better? Too dour! As expected? In the middle.
Recently, most key data are trending above estimates – thanks to lingering inflation and recession fears.
Stocks always move most on the gap between reality and expectations, so gauging the latter is key to any outlook
Ken Fisher,
founder, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer, Fisher Investments
Another way: Consider IPOs. I have long said IPO actually means “It’s probably overpriced”, given companies do IPOs when prices are best for sellers (founders and early investors) – not buyers.
Heavy issuance usually follows a big rise, when recent returns boost spirits and elevate demand, allowing top dollar pricing.
Earlier IPO successes often fan optimism further, leading to more lower-quality listings flooding markets.
Hence, sunny sentiment is detached from weakening fundamentals.
The Middle East’s strong 2023 was an exception to the global IPO desert.
Now? US and European issuances are up from last February, and analysts see more ahead.
But issuance remains muted overall – revealing scepticism, maybe some optimism but certainly not euphoria.
Many companies issuing shares lately use the proceeds to retire costlier debt. Plus, today’s IPOs are more established – think ARM and Shein – unlike 2021’s speculative Spacs.
Nothing euphoric there.
Whether you choose easy or hard methods, tracking sentiment is key. Today, it all signals more gains ahead.
Ken Fisher is the founder, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer of Fisher Investments, a global investment adviser with $200 billion of assets under management.
THE SPECS
Engine: Four-cylinder 2.5-litre
Transmission: Seven-speed auto
Power: 165hp
Torque: 241Nm
Price: Dh99,900 to Dh134,000
On sale: now
Omar Yabroudi's factfile
Born: October 20, 1989, Sharjah
Education: Bachelor of Science and Football, Liverpool John Moores University
2010: Accrington Stanley FC, internship
2010-2012: Crystal Palace, performance analyst with U-18 academy
2012-2015: Barnet FC, first-team performance analyst/head of recruitment
2015-2017: Nottingham Forest, head of recruitment
2018-present: Crystal Palace, player recruitment manager
Third Test
Day 3, stumps
India 443-7 (d) & 54-5 (27 ov)
Australia 151
India lead by 346 runs with 5 wickets remaining
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
Two products to make at home
Toilet cleaner
1 cup baking soda
1 cup castile soap
10-20 drops of lemon essential oil (or another oil of your choice)
Method:
1. Mix the baking soda and castile soap until you get a nice consistency.
2. Add the essential oil to the mix.
Air Freshener
100ml water
5 drops of the essential oil of your choice (note: lavender is a nice one for this)
Method:
1. Add water and oil to spray bottle to store.
2. Shake well before use.
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More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
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FANS WILL LOVE
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