Bitcoin is back. Again. Nothing new in that, you might say. The price goes up, it goes down. Often at speed.
Except this time, maybe there is something new because the world’s number one cryptocurrency looks set to attract a new source of demand and investors are buying now before the price takes off as a result.
Given all the gloom out there, it seems strange that the world’s frothiest asset class should suddenly bubble up just as everything else is falling.
So, is there something in it, or is this a distraction that investors could do without?
The US technology revival has generated most of the excitement in this volatile year, as investors look for ways to monetise the artificial intelligence revolution.
Yet, while investors fixated on runaway stocks like chip maker Nvidia, many have overlooked Bitcoin’s quiet resurgence.
Its price is up 105.41 per cent year to date and while that trails Nvidia’s blockbuster 181.7 per cent return, it’s still impressive.
Bitcoin opened the year trading at about $16,605 and spent the summer bobbing around the $25,000 mark.
Then it suddenly rocketed to an 18-month high of $35,000 on reports that US regulators are set to approve the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
A “physical” Bitcoin ETF would allow both private and institutional investors to track the Bitcoin price without the risk and trouble of actually buying it, making it much easier to pop into their portfolios and retirement plans.
Even if they do not like, trust or understand Bitcoin, they can still have exposure to it for diversification purposes, just as they may hold some gold, commodities, cash or any other asset class.
Speculators piled into Bitcoin, while André Dragosch from Deutsche Digital Assets also pinned the price surge on a “short squeeze” as investors betting that the price would fall rushed to close their positions.
He also warned of a potential price correction in the short term, which would surprise precisely nobody.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission appears to have fought a losing battle against allowing ETFs to invest directly in Bitcoin, citing risks such as fraud and market manipulation.
While the SEC has greenlighted ETFs holding Bitcoin and Ethereum futures, it has been on its guard following the collapse of crypto exchange FTX, whose co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried is now on trial for fraud.
In August, the District of Columbia Court of Appeals in Washington ruled that the SEC was wrong to reject a proposal by Grayscale Investments to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF, and formalised its decision on October 24. The SEC is not expected to appeal.
Some of the world’s biggest asset managers are now lining up to muscle into the new sector, says Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial.
BlackRock, which runs the iShares ETF range, and Fidelity and Invesco have been watching the SEC case closely.
In fact, BlackRock has listed its IBTC ticker on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation website, an essential precursor to listing a new ETF.
Long-term Bitcoin bull Cathie Wood at ARK Invest has been creating a Bitcoin ETF in partnership with 21Shares.
While Bitcoin has retreated since hitting $35,000, Mr Valecha says that if Bitcoin bulls keep the momentum going, the next hurdles align at $36,507 and further at $38,579.
Alternatively, it could just as easily crash through its $31,212 support level.
It’s quite the comeback for Bitcoin, but the price still remains well below its all-time high of around $66,000, which it hit in November 2021.
That turned out to be the high water mark for risk assets, just before inflation and interest rates rocketed and Russia invaded Ukraine.
The crypto winter was long and hard, and some suspected investors had lost interest in Bitcoin altogether, as the new era of higher borrowing costs and lower growth spooked speculators and the get-rich-quick crew drifted away.
Inflated claims that Bitcoin was “digital gold” also looked overblown, as its price crashed along with shares and bonds in 2022. Rather than a store of value, it was beginning to look like a destructor of wealth.
Crypto does have one clear corollary with gold, though. Neither pay any income, which makes them look less attractive at a time when investors can get positive yields from bonds and cash.
That hasn’t stopped Bitcoin lately as the price and liquidity recovers, but Justin d’Anethan, head of Asia-Pacific business development at crypto market maker Keyrock, reminds investors that the recent surge is “still nothing compared to the euphoria of 2020-2021”.
That could now change as Bitcoin lives and dies on market sentiment. After a long summer lull, optimism and volatility have returned to crypto markets, says Matthew Weller, global head of research at City Index and Forex.com.
“Only a break back below $32,000 would erase the near-term bullish bias at this point,” he adds.
Unlike futures-based products such as CME Group’s Bitcoin futures contract, physical spot ETFs will “fundamentally alter the supply/demand balance in a bullish way”, Mr Weller says, as funds would have to buy and hold Bitcoin equal to the assets under management.
Bitcoin has retreated slightly in recent days in a case of “buy the rumour, sell the fact”, but Mr Weller says the price enjoys two other “big picture tailwinds”.
First, history suggests it should be entering a bullish period as we approach the next “halving” in April 2024.
This is where the reward for mining new blocks is halved, meaning miners receive 50 per cent fewer Bitcoins for verifying transactions.
They occur roughly every four years and have tended to push prices higher by reducing the supply of new Bitcoins being generated by the network.
The second big tailwind is the long-awaited approach of peak interest rates, with signs that central banks like the US Federal Reserve are done with the hikes.
So that’s three big tailwinds for Bitcoin, Mr Weller says.
“The next big psychological event is $40,000,” he adds.
Will Bitcoin get there? Probably, at some point, but investors must still remember that this is a highly speculative asset, and they should only gamble a small part of their portfolio. Or maybe wait for that ETF.
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The national orchestra
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Read more from Aya Iskandarani
Tomorrow 2021
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
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Jebel Ali Dragons 26 Bahrain 23
Dragons
Tries: Hayes, Richards, Cooper
Cons: Love
Pens: Love 3
Bahrain
Tries: Kenny, Crombie, Tantoh
Cons: Phillips
Pens: Phillips 2
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Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
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Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
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Saudi National Day
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
Plastic tipping point
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Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
World Mental Health Day
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World Mental Health Day
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1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
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WHAT%20IS%20'JUICE%20JACKING'%3F
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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War and the virus
Simon Rushton: War vet raises £12m for health workers
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• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
E-cigarettes report
The Bio
Favourite vegetable: “I really like the taste of the beetroot, the potatoes and the eggplant we are producing.”
Holiday destination: “I like Paris very much, it’s a city very close to my heart.”
Book: “Das Kapital, by Karl Marx. I am not a communist, but there are a lot of lessons for the capitalist system, if you let it get out of control, and humanity.”
Musician: “I like very much Fairuz, the Lebanese singer, and the other is Umm Kulthum. Fairuz is for listening to in the morning, Umm Kulthum for the night.”
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While you're here
Aya Iskandarani: Why Hezbollah’s man in Iraq is now worth $10 million to the US
Khaled Yacoub Oweis: Hezbollah bids to control Lebanon’s financial system
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UAE tour of the Netherlands
UAE squad: Rohan Mustafa (captain), Shaiman Anwar, Ghulam Shabber, Mohammed Qasim, Rameez Shahzad, Mohammed Usman, Adnan Mufti, Chirag Suri, Ahmed Raza, Imran Haider, Mohammed Naveed, Amjad Javed, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
Fixtures: Monday, first 50-over match; Wednesday, second 50-over match; Thursday, third 50-over match
Kareem Shaheen on Canada
Neighbourhood Watch
While you're here
Gavin Esler: Coronavirus offers stinging rebuke to protectionists
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Sholto Byrnes: Why the climate change clash will get nastier
Transgender report
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Our commentary on Brexit
- Alistair Burt: Despite Brexit, Britain can remain a world power
- Sam Williams: Departure is influenced by its sense of place
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Tomorrow 2021
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Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
AWARDS
Kareem Shaheen on Canada
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
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• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
War on waste
Profile of MoneyFellows
Founder: Ahmed Wadi
Launched: 2016
Employees: 76
Financing stage: Series A ($4 million)
Investors: Partech, Sawari Ventures, 500 Startups, Dubai Angel Investors, Phoenician Fund
Sheer grandeur
The Owo building is 14 storeys high, seven of which are below ground, with the 30,000 square feet of amenities located subterranean, including a 16-seat private cinema, seven lounges, a gym, games room, treatment suites and bicycle storage.
A clear distinction between the residences and the Raffles hotel with the amenities operated separately.
School uniforms report
Company profile
Name: Dukkantek
Started: January 2021
Founders: Sanad Yaghi, Ali Al Sayegh and Shadi Joulani
Based: UAE
Number of employees: 140
Sector: B2B Vertical SaaS(software as a service)
Investment: $5.2 million
Funding stage: Seed round
Investors: Global Founders Capital, Colle Capital Partners, Wamda Capital, Plug and Play, Comma Capital, Nowais Capital, Annex Investments and AMK Investment Office
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If you go...
Fly from Dubai or Abu Dhabi to Chiang Mai in Thailand, via Bangkok, before taking a five-hour bus ride across the Laos border to Huay Xai. The land border crossing at Huay Xai is a well-trodden route, meaning entry is swift, though travellers should be aware of visa requirements for both countries.
Flights from Dubai start at Dh4,000 return with Emirates, while Etihad flights from Abu Dhabi start at Dh2,000. Local buses can be booked in Chiang Mai from around Dh50
MATCH INFO
Delhi Daredevils 174-4 (20 ovs)
Mumbai Indians 163 (19.3 ovs)
Delhi won the match by 11 runs
Analysis
Maros Sefcovic is juggling multiple international trade agreement files, but his message was clear when he spoke to The National on Wednesday.
The EU-UAE bilateral trade deal will be finalised soon, he said. It is in everyone’s interests to do so. Both sides want to move quickly and are in alignment. He said the UAE is a very important partner for the EU. It’s full speed ahead - and with some lofty ambitions - on the road to a free trade agreement.
We also talked about US-EU tariffs. He answered that both sides need to talk more and more often, but he is prepared to defend Europe's position and said diplomacy should be a guiding principle through the current moment.
In Search of Mary Shelley: The Girl Who Wrote Frankenstein
By Fiona Sampson
Profile
Explained
Combating coronavirus
National editorial: global co-operation is key to beating coronavirus
National editorial: pandemic requires urgent action from world leaders
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NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
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The National editorial: Turkey's soft power weighs heavy on Europe's Muslims
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It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
Our commentary on Brexit
- Con Coughlin: Choice of the British people will be vindicated
- Sam Williams: Departure is influenced by its sense of place
Plastic tipping points
Brahmastra%3A%20Part%20One%20-%20Shiva
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
War on waste
War on waste
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
Up in the air
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Tomorrow 2021
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
World Mental Health Day
Saudi National Day
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
Brief scores:
Toss: Pakhtunkhwa Zalmi, chose to field
Environment Agency: 193-3 (20 ov)
Ikhlaq 76 not out, Khaliya 58, Ahsan 55
Pakhtunkhwa Zalmi: 194-2 (18.3 ov)
Afridi 95 not out, Sajid 55, Rizwan 36 not out
Result: Pakhtunkhwa won by 8 wickets
Plastic tipping points
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• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
England's all-time record goalscorers:
Wayne Rooney 53
Bobby Charlton 49
Gary Lineker 48
Jimmy Greaves 44
Michael Owen 40
Tom Finney 30
Nat Lofthouse 30
Alan Shearer 30
Viv Woodward 29
Frank Lampard 29
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The%20specs
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Barbie
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Tomorrow 2021
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative
While you're here
Hussein Ibish: Could it be game over for Donald Trump?
Joyce Karam: Trump's campaign thrown off balance
Trump tests positive: everything we know so far
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
The%20specs
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
While you're here
While you're here
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
While you're here
How green is the expo nursery?
Some 400,000 shrubs and 13,000 trees in the on-site nursery
An additional 450,000 shrubs and 4,000 trees to be delivered in the months leading up to the expo
Ghaf, date palm, acacia arabica, acacia tortilis, vitex or sage, techoma and the salvadora are just some heat tolerant native plants in the nursery
Approximately 340 species of shrubs and trees selected for diverse landscape
The nursery team works exclusively with organic fertilisers and pesticides
All shrubs and trees supplied by Dubai Municipality
Most sourced from farms, nurseries across the country
Plants and trees are re-potted when they arrive at nursery to give them room to grow
Some mature trees are in open areas or planted within the expo site
Green waste is recycled as compost
Treated sewage effluent supplied by Dubai Municipality is used to meet the majority of the nursery’s irrigation needs
Construction workforce peaked at 40,000 workers
About 65,000 people have signed up to volunteer
Main themes of expo is ‘Connecting Minds, Creating the Future’ and three subthemes of opportunity, mobility and sustainability.
Expo 2020 Dubai to open in October 2020 and run for six months
THE RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Alnawar, Connor Beasley (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Raniah, Noel Garbutt, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh90,000 2,200m
Winner: Saarookh, Richard Mullen, Ana Mendez
6.30pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan Jewel Crown (PA) Rated Conditions Dh125,000 1,600m
Winner: RB Torch, Tadhg O’Shea, Eric Lemartinel
7pm: Al Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: MH Wari, Antonio Fresu, Elise Jeane
7.30pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,600m
Winner: Mailshot, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
