If there was ever a time for gold to shine, this should be it as several economic and geopolitical crises bleed into each other with no easy solutions in sight.
War in Ukraine, US-China tension, rising interest rates and the Israel-Hamas conflict are turning up the heat and climate change is not helping, either.
Gold is the world’s ultimate historical safe haven and it has been a rare beneficiary of today’s mounting horrors.
The price has clicked up 2.5 per cent in the last week, but this can hardly be described as a gold rush.
At the time of writing, it was trading at slightly more than $1,979 an ounce. That is some way below this year’s peak of $2,048.45, which gold hit during the banking crisis in April.
It is even further from its coronavirus-driven high of $2,074.88, set in August 2020.
Surprising? Maybe. Yet, gold is more than a simple store of value and its price is driven by a number of factors. War, war does not always mean soar, soar.
If it did, the gold price would be heading to the moon as Israel prepares a ground invasion of Gaza and US President Joe Biden threatens to hold Iran “accountable” for supporting Russia, Hamas and “other terrorist groups”.
Could the world be more worried? Well, it might be, given what is coming our way, but war is only one of three factors driving the gold price.
The other two are the US dollar and interest rates.
Gold is priced in dollars and when the greenback is strong, that makes it more expensive for buyers of other currencies, hitting demand in key markets such as China, India and Turkey.
With the US Federal Reserve considering further interest rate increases as it battles to curb inflation, the dollar is on the march again. Plus, it is also a safe-haven play, currently eclipsing gold.
Interest rates matter because gold does not pay any income. That makes it less attractive when bond yields rise as they are today, with 10-year US Treasuries paying about 5 per cent.
That is the highest level since 2007 and the higher yields climb, the more it will hurt gold, says Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades.
“As bond yields and savings rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold in your portfolio has increased,” he says.
So, two of the three factors driving the gold price are pointing the wrong way right now, Mr Evangelista says.
“Gold prices may climb higher once investors sense that interest rates have peaked, but this is not guaranteed.”
Gold’s recent gains are impressive considering the “negative price signals” of the rising dollar and interest rates, says Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
It is even more impressive as holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds decline, as asset managers hang back waiting for peak interest rates.
Mr Hansen suggests that at some point, “we will see a fear of missing out [Fomo] buying response” that could drive gold higher.
Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and Forex.com, also calls the gold price resurgence impressive but warns that the yellow metal may now be overbought after breaking through key resistance levels.
“What I would like to see now is a period of consolidation and some give-back, just to see if buyers will step in,” he says.
As bond yields and savings rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold in your portfolio has increased
Ricardo Evangelista,
senior analyst, ActivTrades
He reckons gold has reached a potential resistance zone right now at around $1,960 to $1,980, which it struggled to break during the summer.
If sellers return in force, the gold price could “slice through this zone like butter”, he says.
Much now depends on Gaza, but not as much as many investors assume, says Carsten Menke, head of next-generation research at Swiss private bank Julius Baer.
“Geopolitics is typically a temporary noise element rather than an impactful fundamental force, and outside of the two oil crises, gold and silver do not possess a particularly strong track record as geopolitical hedges,” he says.
Mr Menke is a rare optimist these days, arguing that higher interest rates are a healthy sign of normalising economic conditions and markets could rally as the year draws to a close.
He also notes that speculative gold and silver traders have been wrong-footed twice in recent weeks.
“Betting on higher prices, they were caught out as the long-awaited US recession did not materialise and the Federal Reserve suggested interest rates would remain higher for longer.”
After adjusting their positions to bet on falling prices, they were caught a second time by the Hamas attack, Mr Menke adds.
While gold and silver jumped on the initial geopolitical shock, as they always do, we cannot assume this will continue.
“In the past, conflicts between Israel and Hamas have not moved the gold and silver markets for long,” he says.
This could change if the conflict spreads or threatens oil supplies, but Mr Menke remains optimistic.
“While we cannot rule out an escalation, we have a very high conviction in the established economic trends: No recession in the US, higher-for-longer interest rates and no systemic banking stress. These trends should result in a further fading of safe-haven demand,” he says.
If correct, the gold price could decline and today’s buyers could find themselves sitting on a loss.
However, asset price movements are impossible to predict with any accuracy, given all the variables, and that applies to the gold price, too.
As ever, views differ with Fitch Solutions “neutral” about the gold price, expecting prices to average around $1,950, slightly below today’s levels.
In contrast, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao reckons gold will extend recent gains “into a range of $1,998 to $2,010 per ounce, as it has broken a resistance at $1,972”.
Gold could go either way from here but if the fear factor continues to climb, a new high could be in reach.
If the war intensifies, oil prices soar, the world hurtles into a recession and central banks are forced to slash interest rates, gold could dazzle.
Shoppers in Dubai Gold Souq – in pictures
Day traders may dabble but most private investors should tune out the noise and build a balanced portfolio designed to withstand whatever the world throws at us next.
Standard financial advice is that every investor should have some exposure to gold in their portfolio, but typically no more than 5 per cent or 10 per cent of the total.
That advice still holds, even if very little else does, in today’s turbulent, terrifying world.
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
Sri Lanka-India Test series schedule
- 1st Test India won by 304 runs at Galle
- 2nd Test India won by innings and 53 runs at Colombo
- 3rd Test August 12-16 at Pallekele
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
MATCH INFO
CAF Champions League semi-finals first-leg fixtures
Tuesday:
Primeiro Agosto (ANG) v Esperance (TUN) (8pm UAE)
Al Ahly (EGY) v Entente Setif (ALG) (11PM)
Second legs:
October 23
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Company profile
Name: Tratok Portal
Founded: 2017
Based: UAE
Sector: Travel & tourism
Size: 36 employees
Funding: Privately funded
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Scoreline
Australia 2-1 Thailand
Australia: Juric 69', Leckie 86'
Thailand: Pokklaw 82'
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
- Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
- Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
- The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
- Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
- It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
- Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
- Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
SERIES INFO
Cricket World Cup League Two
Nepal, Oman, United States tri-series
Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu
Fixtures
Wednesday February 5, Oman v Nepal
Thursday, February 6, Oman v United States
Saturday, February 8, United States v Nepal
Sunday, February 9, Oman v Nepal
Tuesday, February 11, Oman v United States
Wednesday, February 12, United States v Nepal
Table
The top three sides advance to the 2022 World Cup Qualifier.
The bottom four sides are relegated to the 2022 World Cup playoff
1 United States 8 6 2 0 0 12 0.412
2 Scotland 8 4 3 0 1 9 0.139
3 Namibia 7 4 3 0 0 8 0.008
4 Oman 6 4 2 0 0 8 -0.139
5 UAE 7 3 3 0 1 7 -0.004
6 Nepal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 PNG 8 0 8 0 0 0 -0.458
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Qosty Byogaani
Starring: Hani Razmzi, Maya Nasir and Hassan Hosny
Four stars
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Roll%20of%20Honour%2C%20men%E2%80%99s%20domestic%20rugby%20season
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWest%20Asia%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Bahrain%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Jebel%20Ali%20Dragons%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%201%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Harlequins%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%202%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%20III%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDubai%20Sevens%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
A German university was a good fit for the family budget
Annual fees for the Technical University of Munich - £600
Shared rental accommodation per month depending on the location ranges between £200-600
The family had budgeted for food, books, travel, living expenses - £20,000 annually
Overall costs in Germany are lower than the family estimated
As proof that the student has the ability to take care of expenses, international students must open a blocked account with about £8,640
Students are permitted to withdraw £720 per month
The stats
Ship name: MSC Bellissima
Ship class: Meraviglia Class
Delivery date: February 27, 2019
Gross tonnage: 171,598 GT
Passenger capacity: 5,686
Crew members: 1,536
Number of cabins: 2,217
Length: 315.3 metres
Maximum speed: 22.7 knots (42kph)
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Afghanistan Premier League - at a glance
Venue: Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Fixtures:
Tue, Oct 16, 8pm: Kandahar Knights v Kabul Zwanan; Wed, Oct 17, 4pm: Balkh Legends v Nangarhar Leopards; 8pm: Kandahar Knights v Paktia Panthers; Thu, Oct 18, 4pm: Balkh Legends v Kandahar Knights; 8pm: Kabul Zwanan v Paktia Panthers; Fri, Oct 19, 8pm: First semi-final; Sat, Oct 20, 8pm: Second semi-final; Sun, Oct 21, 8pm: final
Table:
1. Balkh Legends 6 5 1 10
2. Paktia Panthers 6 4 2 8
3. Kabul Zwanan 6 3 3 6
4. Nagarhar Leopards 7 2 5 4
5. Kandahar Knights 5 1 4 2
The biog
Name: Abeer Al Shahi
Emirate: Sharjah – Khor Fakkan
Education: Master’s degree in special education, preparing for a PhD in philosophy.
Favourite activities: Bungee jumping
Favourite quote: “My people and I will not settle for anything less than first place” – Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
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500 People from Gaza enter France
115 Special programme for artists
25 Evacuation of injured and sick
Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi
From: Dara
To: Team@
Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT
Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East
Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.
Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.
I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.
This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.
It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.
Uber on,
Dara
The years Ramadan fell in May
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
Company name: Play:Date
Launched: March 2017 on UAE Mother’s Day
Founder: Shamim Kassibawi
Based: Dubai with operations in the UAE and US
Sector: Tech
Size: 20 employees
Stage of funding: Seed
Investors: Three founders (two silent co-founders) and one venture capital fund
Read more from Aya Iskandarani
Know your Camel lingo
The bairaq is a competition for the best herd of 50 camels, named for the banner its winner takes home
Namoos - a word of congratulations reserved for falconry competitions, camel races and camel pageants. It best translates as 'the pride of victory' - and for competitors, it is priceless
Asayel camels - sleek, short-haired hound-like racers
Majahim - chocolate-brown camels that can grow to weigh two tonnes. They were only valued for milk until camel pageantry took off in the 1990s
Millions Street - the thoroughfare where camels are led and where white 4x4s throng throughout the festival
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
