The Israel-Gaza conflict has shocked the world in its brutality, but stock markets have remained largely unmoved by the scale of the tragedy unfolding before us.
There’s been no meltdown, no panic and no race to safe-haven assets, and right now that doesn’t look like changing either.
So, what does this say about investors? Are they really a hard-hearted bunch who only care about the bottom line?
Individual investors are, no doubt, just as concerned about the human and political nightmare as everybody else.
Taken as a whole, markets are not. It’s harsh, but that’s the reality. To them, it’s no big deal. Yet.
But it’s wrong to say that no markets were affected. While western stock markets in the US, UK and Europe quickly recovered their exposure, local markets were deeply affected, says Kathleen Brooks, founder of Minerva Analysis, a market analysis company.
“There were significant declines in Israel, Palestine, Turkey, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia in the immediate aftermath of the attacks,” she adds.
The oil price rose, too, with Brent crude jumping by 3.5 per cent to just more than $88 per barrel.
“The Middle East accounts for just under a third of global oil production. A war in the region can increase the risk of a major interruption to the oil supply,” Ms Brooks says.
Yet, it’s still well below this year’s intraday peak of $97.04 a barrel, which it hit on September 27 as low US crude inventories increased supply fears.
However, traditional safe-haven asset classes such as US Treasuries, the US dollar, Japanese yen and Swiss franc have only moved slightly. Defence stocks did pick up, though.
The gold price jumped by 3 per cent, to around $1,889 an ounce from $1,833, but that was driven more by a dip in the US dollar and falling yields on Treasuries, than the war. It is down 2 per cent over the last month.
The startling truth is that investors are far more worried about the direction of inflation and interest rates than what Israel will do next.
As Jeremy Batstone-Carr, European strategist at Raymond James, puts it: “Trading does not feel like becoming disorderly even as the threat of escalated tensions prevails. Financial markets are, sadly, all-too used to crises in the Middle East.”
Geopolitical events can have a major impact on markets, says Jason Hollands, managing director of wealth advisers Evelyn Partners.
“Most notably, the Arab-Israeli conflict in the mid-70s triggered an inflationary surge as the Arab states embargoed oil exports to the US in retaliation for their support of Israel,” he adds.
Yet, war never happens in a vacuum and that was true then, too, as the 1973 oil crisis took place at a time when inflation was already a problem, according to Mr Hollands.
The S&P 500 plunged almost 15 per cent in the week after the September 11 terror attacks in 2001, while oil and gold rallied.
Yet within a week, the oil price had retreated to pre-attack levels as no further attacks followed and crude oil shipments to the US were uninterrupted.
By the middle of October, markets had recovered nearly all their losses.
Global stock markets fell 10 per cent when Russia invaded Ukraine last year, triggering an energy price shock and a cost-of-living crisis, and the S&P 500 index ended the year crashing almost 20 per cent.
Once again, other factors had a bigger impact on markets, Mr Hollands says.
“The origins of the inflationary surge ultimately lay with an excessive increase in money supply by central banks and supply chain bottlenecks caused by pandemic lockdowns,” he adds.
Despite hundreds of thousands of deaths and no conclusion in sight, the war in Ukraine seems contained and markets have moved on.
The Israel-Hamas conflict has had little impact on oil production, but one thing could shake markets out of their complacency, Mr Hollands says.
“If other regional actors became directly embroiled, this would trigger a much sharper reaction because of the threat to energy supplies if, say, Iran attempted to close the Straits of Hormuz,” he explains.
Samy Chaar, chief economist at Swiss private bank Lombard Odier, says the Gulf Co-operation Council region has suffered less than investors might expect.
“While it is fuelling some concerns over the region’s outlook, we see the GCC countries ultimately striving to avoid regional escalation and maintaining current oil output behaviour,” he adds.
Mr Chaar says the GCC’s long-term development plans rest on avoiding “geopolitical conflagration”.
It is unwilling to allow the oil price to spike higher as this would accelerate global electrification trends.
“The unpredictable nature and scale of the conflict will, however, require close monitoring,” he adds.
Israel-Gaza war – in pictures
Graphic images of the Israel-Hamas conflict may be dominating the headlines in the most horrific way imaginable, but what markets remain focused on are the same grey men in suits. Namely, central bankers led by the US Federal Reserve and yes, they are still mostly men.
What markets really want to know is whether they have finished hiking interest rates, and how soon they will start cutting them instead.
For them, this is a far more vital issue than how Israel exacts revenge in Gaza.
If the Fed pushes too hard, it could trigger bank collapses and a global recession, while a successful outcome would be to engineer an economic soft landing.
The Israel-Hamas conflict scarcely comes into that calculation, except in how it affects the oil price.
For now, investors are refusing to worry, says Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com.
“Markets are assigning little chance that this conflict will become entrenched and the effects will be limited geographically,” he adds.
A 1970s-style oil price surge would change all that, but seems unlikely at this stage. Even that may not have the same impact, as the world is a lot less dependent on oil than it was 50 years ago.
What’s happening in Gaza is a human tragedy, rather than a financial one. Perhaps in that respect, markets have struck the right response after all.
In%20the%20Land%20of%20Saints%20and%20Sinners
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 390bhp
Torque: 400Nm
Price: Dh340,000 ($92,579
THE BIO
Ms Al Ameri likes the variety of her job, and the daily environmental challenges she is presented with.
Regular contact with wildlife is the most appealing part of her role at the Environment Agency Abu Dhabi.
She loves to explore new destinations and lives by her motto of being a voice in the world, and not an echo.
She is the youngest of three children, and has a brother and sister.
Her favourite book, Moby Dick by Herman Melville helped inspire her towards a career exploring the natural world.
How it works
A $10 hand-powered LED light and battery bank
Device is operated by hand cranking it at any time during the day or night
The charge is stored inside a battery
The ratio is that for every minute you crank, it provides 10 minutes light on the brightest mode
A full hand wound charge is of 16.5minutes
This gives 1.1 hours of light on high mode or 2.5 hours of light on low mode
When more light is needed, it can be recharged by winding again
The larger version costs between $18-20 and generates more than 15 hours of light with a 45-minute charge
No limit on how many times you can charge
Company%20profile
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Explainer: Tanween Design Programme
Non-profit arts studio Tashkeel launched this annual initiative with the intention of supporting budding designers in the UAE. This year, three talents were chosen from hundreds of applicants to be a part of the sixth creative development programme. These are architect Abdulla Al Mulla, interior designer Lana El Samman and graphic designer Yara Habib.
The trio have been guided by experts from the industry over the course of nine months, as they developed their own products that merge their unique styles with traditional elements of Emirati design. This includes laboratory sessions, experimental and collaborative practice, investigation of new business models and evaluation.
It is led by British contemporary design project specialist Helen Voce and mentor Kevin Badni, and offers participants access to experts from across the world, including the likes of UK designer Gareth Neal and multidisciplinary designer and entrepreneur, Sheikh Salem Al Qassimi.
The final pieces are being revealed in a worldwide limited-edition release on the first day of Downtown Designs at Dubai Design Week 2019. Tashkeel will be at stand E31 at the exhibition.
Lisa Ball-Lechgar, deputy director of Tashkeel, said: “The diversity and calibre of the applicants this year … is reflective of the dynamic change that the UAE art and design industry is witnessing, with young creators resolute in making their bold design ideas a reality.”
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THE%20JERSEYS
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Summer special
Winners
Ballon d’Or (Men’s)
Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain / France)
Ballon d’Or Féminin (Women’s)
Aitana Bonmatí (Barcelona / Spain)
Kopa Trophy (Best player under 21 – Men’s)
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona / Spain)
Best Young Women’s Player
Vicky López (Barcelona / Spain)
Yashin Trophy (Best Goalkeeper – Men’s)
Gianluigi Donnarumma (Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City / Italy)
Best Women’s Goalkeeper
Hannah Hampton (England / Aston Villa and Chelsea)
Men’s Coach of the Year
Luis Enrique (Paris Saint-Germain)
Women’s Coach of the Year
Sarina Wiegman (England)
Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStage%207%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Adam%20Yates%20(GBR)%20UAE%20Team%20Emirates%20%E2%80%93%203hrs%2029min%2042ses%3Cbr%3E2.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%20%E2%80%93%2010sec%3Cbr%3E3.%20Geoffrey%20Bouchard%20(FRA)%20AG2R%20Citroen%20Team%20%E2%80%93%2042sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EGeneral%20Classification%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lucas%20Plapp%20(AUS)%20Ineos%20Grenaders%20%E2%80%93%2059se%3Cbr%3E3.%20Adam%20Yates%20(GBR)%20UAE%20Team%20Emirates%20%E2%80%9360sec%3Cbr%3ERed%20Jersey%20(General%20Classification)%3A%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EGreen%20Jersey%20(Points%20Classification)%3A%20Tim%20Merlier%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EWhite%20Jersey%20(Young%20Rider%20Classification)%3A%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EBlack%20Jersey%20(Intermediate%20Sprint%20Classification)%3A%20Edward%20Planckaert%20(FRA)%20Alpecin-Deceuninck%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'Cheb%20Khaled'
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Visit Abu Dhabi culinary team's top Emirati restaurants in Abu Dhabi
Yadoo’s House Restaurant & Cafe
For the karak and Yoodo's house platter with includes eggs, balaleet, khamir and chebab bread.
Golden Dallah
For the cappuccino, luqaimat and aseeda.
Al Mrzab Restaurant
For the shrimp murabian and Kuwaiti options including Kuwaiti machboos with kebab and spicy sauce.
Al Derwaza
For the fish hubul, regag bread, biryani and special seafood soup.
Details
Through Her Lens: The stories behind the photography of Eva Sereny
Forewords by Jacqueline Bisset and Charlotte Rampling, ACC Art Books
Hili 2: Unesco World Heritage site
The site is part of the Hili archaeological park in Al Ain. Excavations there have proved the existence of the earliest known agricultural communities in modern-day UAE. Some date to the Bronze Age but Hili 2 is an Iron Age site. The Iron Age witnessed the development of the falaj, a network of channels that funnelled water from natural springs in the area. Wells allowed settlements to be established, but falaj meant they could grow and thrive. Unesco, the UN's cultural body, awarded Al Ain's sites - including Hili 2 - world heritage status in 2011. Now the most recent dig at the site has revealed even more about the skilled people that lived and worked there.
THE BIO
Favourite author - Paulo Coelho
Favourite holiday destination - Cuba
New York Times or Jordan Times? NYT is a school and JT was my practice field
Role model - My Grandfather
Dream interviewee - Che Guevara
CHATGPT%20ENTERPRISE%20FEATURES
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Enterprise-grade%20security%20and%20privacy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Unlimited%20higher-speed%20GPT-4%20access%20with%20no%20caps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Longer%20context%20windows%20for%20processing%20longer%20inputs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Advanced%20data%20analysis%20capabilities%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customisation%20options%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shareable%20chat%20templates%20that%20companies%20can%20use%20to%20collaborate%20and%20build%20common%20workflows%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Analytics%20dashboard%20for%20usage%20insights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Free%20credits%20to%20use%20OpenAI%20APIs%20to%20extend%20OpenAI%20into%20a%20fully-custom%20solution%20for%20enterprises%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
Yemen's Bahais and the charges they often face
The Baha'i faith was made known in Yemen in the 19th century, first introduced by an Iranian man named Ali Muhammad Al Shirazi, considered the Herald of the Baha'i faith in 1844.
The Baha'i faith has had a growing number of followers in recent years despite persecution in Yemen and Iran.
Today, some 2,000 Baha'is reside in Yemen, according to Insaf.
"The 24 defendants represented by the House of Justice, which has intelligence outfits from the uS and the UK working to carry out an espionage scheme in Yemen under the guise of religion.. aimed to impant and found the Bahai sect on Yemeni soil by bringing foreign Bahais from abroad and homing them in Yemen," the charge sheet said.
Baha'Ullah, the founder of the Bahai faith, was exiled by the Ottoman Empire in 1868 from Iran to what is now Israel. Now, the Bahai faith's highest governing body, known as the Universal House of Justice, is based in the Israeli city of Haifa, which the Bahais turn towards during prayer.
The Houthis cite this as collective "evidence" of Bahai "links" to Israel - which the Houthis consider their enemy.
Bert van Marwijk factfile
Born: May 19 1952
Place of birth: Deventer, Netherlands
Playing position: Midfielder
Teams managed:
1998-2000 Fortuna Sittard
2000-2004 Feyenoord
2004-2006 Borussia Dortmund
2007-2008 Feyenoord
2008-2012 Netherlands
2013-2014 Hamburg
2015-2017 Saudi Arabia
2018 Australia
Major honours (manager):
2001/02 Uefa Cup, Feyenoord
2007/08 KNVB Cup, Feyenoord
World Cup runner-up, Netherlands
