If September is the worst month for stock markets historically, October is the most volatile and unpredictable.
It has hosted two of the biggest crashes in history, the Wall Street crash of 1929 and Black Monday in October 1987.
Many investors see it as a month of doom, but it has a second, lesser known reputation.
October is also known as the “bear market killer”, with six of the 17 bear markets since the Second World War ending during this month.
It looks set to be volatile and unpredictable this year, after the S&P 500 fell 4.87 per cent in September, calling a halt to what had been a stellar year up to then.
With the 36th anniversary of Black Monday looming on October 19, many analysts are wondering whether we are heading for another shock.
The difference is that Black Monday came out of the blue, while today a rash of analysts are jumping up and down warning of the dangers. How worried should we be?
Nobody quite knows what caused Black Monday, but as ever, there are theories.
After a five-year bull run, markets were considered overvalued. The US was posting regular trade and budget deficits, interest rates were rising.
Sounds familiar?
All those factors are in play today. Despite the recent dip, US shares look pricey trading at 24.6 times earnings, well above their mean of 16.03 times.
The US has been posting a trade deficit since 1976 and budget deficits are a given. The country's debt flew effortlessly past the $3 trillion mark last month with zero sign of slowing down.
It’s now so significant Washington has stopped worrying about it, and was baffled when Fitch recently downgraded its credit rating from AAA to AA+.
In another echo with 1987, interest rates are rising today, and at speed. Markets thought the worst was over until the US Federal Reserve's “hawkish hold” in September when chair Jerome Powell suggested there is more pain to come as the country’s economy refuses to cool despite rates hitting 5.5 per cent.
Investors who spent this year waiting for interest rates to start falling now accept it may not even happen in 2024.
That’s bad news for the bond market, as fixed-interest investments look less attractive when rates are rising generally, and prices have collapsed while yields have soared.
The only thing that can save the bond market is a stock market crash, according to Barclays analysts led by Ajay Rajadhyaksha. September’s 5 per cent dip was nowhere near big enough.
Investors are only now accepting that the era of zero interest rates and free money is well and truly over, says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
“The higher yields go, the less inclined investors will be to pay extra for risk assets like equities,” he adds.
With 10-year US Treasuries now yielding 4.8 per cent and expected to go higher, that spells trouble for shares.
“Bond yields are now the highest since summer 2007, just before the Great Financial Crisis hit home,” Mr Mould says.
The rising cost of money will also hit real activity in the real economy, squeezing corporate earnings, he adds.
For the past two decades, whenever stock markets wobbled, central bankers restored order by slashing interest rates, but they cannot do that today as they battle to get inflation back to their 2 per cent target.
Mr Mould says the past 15 years of ultra-cheap money have been an aberration for share prices, cryptocurrencies, non-fungible tokens and other asset classes, too.
The higher yields go, the less inclined investors will be to pay extra for risk assets like equities
Russ Mould,
investment director, AJ Bell
“The party has been huge. Perhaps the hangover is now on its way,” he warns.
With the US teetering on this session, September’s sell-off could only be the start. Plenty of people think so.
Albert Edwards, a global strategist at French investment bank Société Générale, has warned that markets are mimicking the run-up to Black Monday.
“All you can do is brace yourself and hope for the best,” he advises.
It should be noted that Mr Edwards is a renowned “permabear”, who has been spreading gloom since the 1990s.
Today, though, he’s far from alone. JP Morgan’s chief market strategist Marko Kolanovic warned of a potential 20 per cent downside, with the Magnificent Seven tech stocks Amazon, Alphabet, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla particularly hard-hit by a recession.
Yet, others are more optimistic. Ed Yardeni, the founder of Yardeni Research, is still calling a 2023 Santa Claus rally that would lift the S&P 500 to somewhere near 4,600 points, some 7 per cent higher than Monday’s opening level of 4,308.50.
Any sell-off in the weeks ahead could be an opportunity for investors who feel they have missed out on this year’s artificial intelligence-fuelled US tech stock rally, says Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial.
“Today’s volatility could present a chance to invest early before prices potentially surge in the last months of the year, a pattern that often repeats itself,” he suggests.
History shows that after a poor September, the S&P 500 generally picks up in October and November, and rallies until April, he says.
“There are signs that US inflation is easing and recession fears have also been overdone, indicating a soft landing.”
As ever, there are no guarantees, but investors who are convinced could take advantage of any further dips to buy a low-cost exchange-traded fund tracking the index, such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF or Vanguard 500 Index Fund, Mr Valecha says.
Really brave investors could target US tech stocks through a fund like Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF and Ark Innovation ETF, he adds, but cautions: “They may still be overvalued, notably chip maker Nvidia, which is up 292 per cent in the last 12 months and 642 per cent over five years.”
Mr Valecha says now could even be the time to take advantage of the bond slump and buy US Treasuries.
“As yields reach all-time highs, bond prices have slumped to levels never seen before, resulting in an opportunity to buy the bonds at a lower price to grab high yields and potential capital gains when prices recover,” he adds.
The iShares US Treasury Bond ETF, Vanguard Short-Term Treasury and SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF are options here.
Buying shares when markets crash is risky, though. Just as nobody can say whether shares will fall, nobody knows when the recovery will come, either. October will decide. It often does.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
MATCH INFO
Borussia Dortmund 0
Bayern Munich 1 (Kimmich 43')
Man of the match: Joshua Kimmich (Bayern Munich)
More coverage from the Future Forum
more from Janine di Giovanni
UAE'S%20YOUNG%20GUNS
%3Cp%3E1%20Esha%20Oza%2C%20age%2026%2C%2079%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E2%20Theertha%20Satish%2C%20age%2020%2C%2066%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E3%20Khushi%20Sharma%2C%20age%2021%2C%2065%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E4%20Kavisha%20Kumari%2C%20age%2021%2C%2079%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E5%20Heena%20Hotchandani%2C%20age%2023%2C%2016%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E6%20Rinitha%20Rajith%2C%20age%2018%2C%2034%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E7%20Samaira%20Dharnidharka%2C%20age%2017%2C%2053%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E8%20Vaishnave%20Mahesh%2C%20age%2017%2C%2068%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E9%20Lavanya%20Keny%2C%20age%2017%2C%2033%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E10%20Siya%20Gokhale%2C%20age%2018%2C%2033%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E11%20Indhuja%20Nandakumar%2C%20age%2018%2C%2046%20matches%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Explainer: Tanween Design Programme
Non-profit arts studio Tashkeel launched this annual initiative with the intention of supporting budding designers in the UAE. This year, three talents were chosen from hundreds of applicants to be a part of the sixth creative development programme. These are architect Abdulla Al Mulla, interior designer Lana El Samman and graphic designer Yara Habib.
The trio have been guided by experts from the industry over the course of nine months, as they developed their own products that merge their unique styles with traditional elements of Emirati design. This includes laboratory sessions, experimental and collaborative practice, investigation of new business models and evaluation.
It is led by British contemporary design project specialist Helen Voce and mentor Kevin Badni, and offers participants access to experts from across the world, including the likes of UK designer Gareth Neal and multidisciplinary designer and entrepreneur, Sheikh Salem Al Qassimi.
The final pieces are being revealed in a worldwide limited-edition release on the first day of Downtown Designs at Dubai Design Week 2019. Tashkeel will be at stand E31 at the exhibition.
Lisa Ball-Lechgar, deputy director of Tashkeel, said: “The diversity and calibre of the applicants this year … is reflective of the dynamic change that the UAE art and design industry is witnessing, with young creators resolute in making their bold design ideas a reality.”
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The Book of Collateral Damage
Sinan Antoon
(Yale University Press)
The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo
Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
BACK%20TO%20ALEXANDRIA
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETamer%20Ruggli%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENadine%20Labaki%2C%20Fanny%20Ardant%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
FA%20Cup%20semi-final%20draw
%3Cp%3ECoventry%20City%20v%20Manchester%20United%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EManchester%20City%20v%20Chelsea%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20Games%20to%20be%20played%20at%20Wembley%20Stadium%20on%20weekend%20of%20April%2020%2F21.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Stan%20Lee
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20David%20Gelb%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: McLaren 600LT
Price, base: Dh914,000
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 600hp @ 7,500rpm
Torque: 620Nm @ 5,500rpm
Fuel economy 12.2.L / 100km
RESULT
Arsenal 2
Sokratis Papastathopoulos 45 4'
Eddie Ntkeiah 51'
Portsmouth 0
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
More on animal trafficking
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
RESULTS
5pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 2,200m
Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Fernando Jara (jockey), Ahmed Al Mehairbi (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: AF Seven Skies, Bernardo Pinheiro, Qais Aboud
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner: Almahroosa, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner: AF Sumoud, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner: AF Majalis, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh90,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Adventurous, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
Biog
Age: 50
Known as the UAE’s strongest man
Favourite dish: “Everything and sea food”
Hobbies: Drawing, basketball and poetry
Favourite car: Any classic car
Favourite superhero: The Hulk original
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Seemar’s top six for the Dubai World Cup Carnival:
1. Reynaldothewizard
2. North America
3. Raven’s Corner
4. Hawkesbury
5. New Maharajah
6. Secret Ambition
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
Shooting Ghosts: A U.S. Marine, a Combat Photographer, and Their Journey Back from War by Thomas J. Brennan and Finbarr O’Reilly
Company profile
Name: Fruitful Day
Founders: Marie-Christine Luijckx, Lyla Dalal AlRawi, Lindsey Fournie
Based: Dubai, UAE
Founded: 2015
Number of employees: 30
Sector: F&B
Funding so far: Dh3 million
Future funding plans: None at present
Future markets: Saudi Arabia, potentially Kuwait and other GCC countries
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
'How To Build A Boat'
Jonathan Gornall, Simon & Schuster
THE BIO:
Favourite holiday destination: Thailand. I go every year and I’m obsessed with the fitness camps there.
Favourite book: Born to Run by Christopher McDougall. It’s an amazing story about barefoot running.
Favourite film: A League of their Own. I used to love watching it in my granny’s house when I was seven.
Personal motto: Believe it and you can achieve it.
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed dual clutch
Power: 710bhp
Torque: 770Nm
Speed: 0-100km/h 2.9 seconds
Top Speed: 340km/h
Price: Dh1,000,885
On sale: now
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2a)
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World%20Food%20Day%20
%3Cp%3ECelebrated%20on%20October%2016%2C%20to%20coincide%20with%20the%20founding%20date%20of%20the%20United%20Nations%20Food%20and%20Agriculture%20Organisation%2C%20World%20Food%20Day%20aims%20to%20tackle%20issues%20such%20as%20hunger%2C%20food%20security%2C%20food%20waste%20and%20the%20environmental%20impact%20of%20food%20production.%20%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Know your Camel lingo
The bairaq is a competition for the best herd of 50 camels, named for the banner its winner takes home
Namoos - a word of congratulations reserved for falconry competitions, camel races and camel pageants. It best translates as 'the pride of victory' - and for competitors, it is priceless
Asayel camels - sleek, short-haired hound-like racers
Majahim - chocolate-brown camels that can grow to weigh two tonnes. They were only valued for milk until camel pageantry took off in the 1990s
Millions Street - the thoroughfare where camels are led and where white 4x4s throng throughout the festival
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THURSDAY'S FIXTURES
4pm Maratha Arabians v Northern Warriors
6.15pm Deccan Gladiators v Pune Devils
8.30pm Delhi Bulls v Bangla Tigers
