Since my previous column, some new themes have emerged while older ones have further solidified their influence on financial markets.
Risk sentiment was riled in global capital markets last week as fears of a bubbling US-China trade war emerged after Beijing directed government officials to stop using iPhones.
With China representing about 20 per cent of Apple’s revenue, this hit the technology company’s market capitalisation hard and its stock dropped more than 3.5 per cent to exacerbate its losses month to date at more than 5 per cent in September.
Analysts see the move as a retaliation to US-imposed restrictions on chip exports to China – introduced earlier in the year – and investors would be shrewd to keep tabs on this developing story.
Apple’s stock price decline led to a broader fall in US indexes. The S&P 500, of which Apple represents more than 7 per cent, closed below the psychological level of 4,500 – 1.29 per cent lower on the week.
Adding to the weakness in US equity markets has been a stronger-than-expected data docket.
Reverting to an older theme that has been driving sentiment – the US Federal Reserve and its expected coming actions – the host of stronger prints has shifted expectations it could introduce another rate increase during its meeting at the end of October.
ISM data, a measure of the US services sector, expanded for the eighth month in a row, while initial jobless claims – a weekly metric that highlights the number of workers who are unemployed – dropped to its lowest level in six months and represents the fourth consecutive week of lower jobless claims.
A lower initial jobless claims print suggests that the US labour market is still running hot and tight, which is a negative for the Fed and sparks the debate of further rate increases this year.
Markets are pricing in a “no-hike” scenario with 93 per cent probability at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 19 and 20, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
But the probabilities look far more interesting when looking at the Fed's meeting on October 31 and November 1.
At the time of writing, markets were split 55.3 per cent to 41.9 per cent towards the Fed keeping rates unchanged at its second-last meeting of the year (versus a 41.9 per cent probability of a rate increase).
One month ago, this split was 63.1 per cent versus 33.9 per cent. The narrowing of this ratio stokes further uncertainty in markets and, once again, US data will be key here, starting with today’s US consumer price index report.
Due at 4.30pm Dubai time on Wednesday, US CPI data is expected to show inflation jumped to 3.6 per cent year on year, up from 3.2 per cent last month.
However, this may be misleading as it factors in energy prices, which the Fed tends to neglect when analysing inflationary trends.
Therefore, pay closer attention to the core CPI print, which excludes food and energy. Year on year, core prices are expected to fall to 4.3 per cent, versus the previous month’s reading of 4.7 per cent.
A print below the 4.3 per cent threshold will, no doubt, cause risk-on moods to drive asset classes higher against the US dollar and vice versa.
I expect the print to come in line with expectations and this will result in markets continuing to trade in their current range and we will be no closer to predicting Fed action at its penultimate meeting.
US jobless claims continue to assume more importance these days – and will, once again, drive short-term pricing action through the end of the week.
So, keep tabs on whether we will get a fifth consecutive week of lower claims – a scenario that will see risk sentiment erode across the US equity segment.
Producer prices data, a measure of the change of the price of goods sold by the US manufacturing sector, and US retail sales follow on Thursday before attention turns to this month's FOMC meeting.
Gaurav Kashyap is risk manager at Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Brief scores:
Arsenal 4
Xhaka 25', Lacazette 55', Ramsey 79', Aubameyang 83'
Fulham 1
Kamara 69'
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
The specs
Engine: 2.4-litre 4-cylinder
Transmission: CVT auto
Power: 181bhp
Torque: 244Nm
Price: Dh122,900
Marathon results
Men:
1. Titus Ekiru(KEN) 2:06:13
2. Alphonce Simbu(TAN) 2:07:50
3. Reuben Kipyego(KEN) 2:08:25
4. Abel Kirui(KEN) 2:08:46
5. Felix Kemutai(KEN) 2:10:48
Women:
1. Judith Korir(KEN) 2:22:30
2. Eunice Chumba(BHR) 2:26:01
3. Immaculate Chemutai(UGA) 2:28:30
4. Abebech Bekele(ETH) 2:29:43
5. Aleksandra Morozova(RUS) 2:33:01
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
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Barbie
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Greta%20Gerwig%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Margot%20Robbie%2C%20Ryan%20Gosling%2C%20Will%20Ferrell%2C%20America%20Ferrera%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SRI LANKS ODI SQUAD
Perera (capt), Mendis, Gunathilaka, de Silva, Nissanka, Shanaka, Bandara, Hasaranga, Udana, Dananjaya, Dickwella, Chameera, Mendis, Fernando, Sandakan, Karunaratne, Fernando, Fernando.
'Peninsula'
Stars: Gang Dong-won, Lee Jung-hyun, Lee Ra
Director: Yeon Sang-ho
Rating: 2/5
Brief scoreline:
Manchester United 2
Rashford 28', Martial 72'
Watford 1
Doucoure 90'
FIXTURES (all times UAE)
Sunday
Brescia v Lazio (3.30pm)
SPAL v Verona (6pm)
Genoa v Sassuolo (9pm)
AS Roma v Torino (11.45pm)
Monday
Bologna v Fiorentina (3.30pm)
AC Milan v Sampdoria (6pm)
Juventus v Cagliari (6pm)
Atalanta v Parma (6pm)
Lecce v Udinese (9pm)
Napoli v Inter Milan (11.45pm)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
PROFILE
Name: Enhance Fitness
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
Employees: 200
Amount raised: $3m
Investors: Global Ventures and angel investors
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, first leg
Liverpool v Roma
When: April 24, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Anfield, Liverpool
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Manchester United's summer dealings
In
Victor Lindelof (Benfica) £30.7 million
Romelu Lukaku (Everton) £75 million
Nemanja Matic (Chelsea) £40 million
Out
Zlatan Ibrahimovic Released
Wayne Rooney (Everton) Free transfer
Adnan Januzaj (Real Sociedad) £9.8 million
Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE
Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:
• Buy second hand stuff
They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.
• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres
Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.
• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.
Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.
• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home
Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.
Company Profile
Company name: OneOrder
Started: October 2021
Founders: Tamer Amer and Karim Maurice
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Industry: technology, logistics
Investors: A15 and self-funded
THE%20SWIMMERS
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FULL%20RESULTS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMiddleweight%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EEslam%20Syaha%20(EGY)%20bt%20Robin%20Roos%20(SWE)%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EWelterweight%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAlex%20da%20Silva%20(BRA)%20bt%20Bagyash%20Zharmamatov%20(KGZ)%20%0D%3Cbr%3EMurodov%20Samandar%20(TJK)%20bt%20Lucas%20Sampaio%20(BRA)%20%0D%3Cbr%3EShakhban%20Alkhasov%20(RUS)%20bt%20Salamat%20Orozakunov%20(KGZ)%0D%3Cbr%3EKhotamjon%20Boynazarov%20(UZB)%20bt%20Mikail%20Bayram%20(FRA)%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBantamweight%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EJieleyisi%20Baergeng%20(CHN)%20bt%20Xavier%20Alaoui%20(CAN)%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFlyweight%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ERashid%20Vagabov%20(RUS)%20bt%20Lun%20Qui%20(CHN)%20%0D%3Cbr%3EYamato%20Fujita%20(JPN)%20bt%20Furkatbek%20Yokubov%20(UZB)%20%0D%3Cbr%3EAaron%20Aby%20(WLS)%20bt%20Joevincent%20So%20(PHI)%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20176lb%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMark%20Hulm%20(RSA)%20bt%20Erkin%20Darmenov%20(KAZ)%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20160lb%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ERustam%20Serbiev%20(BEL)%20bt%20Anar%20Huseyinov%20(AZE)%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20150lb%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIslam%20Reda%20(EGY)%20bt%20Ernie%20Braca%20(PHI)%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFlyweight%20(women)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3EBaktygul%20Kurmanbekova%20(KGZ)%20bt%20Maria%20Eugenia%20Zbrun%20(ARG)%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Western Region Asia Cup T20 Qualifier
Sun Feb 23 – Thu Feb 27, Al Amerat, Oman
The two finalists advance to the Asia qualifier in Malaysia in August
Group A
Bahrain, Maldives, Oman, Qatar
Group B
UAE, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia
UAE group fixtures
Sunday Feb 23, 9.30am, v Iran
Monday Feb 25, 1pm, v Kuwait
Tuesday Feb 26, 9.30am, v Saudi
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza, Rohan Mustafa, Alishan Sharafu, Ansh Tandon, Vriitya Aravind, Junaid Siddique, Waheed Ahmed, Karthik Meiyappan, Basil Hameed, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Ayaz, Zahoor Khan, Chirag Suri, Sultan Ahmed
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
Company Profile
Company name: NutriCal
Started: 2019
Founder: Soniya Ashar
Based: Dubai
Industry: Food Technology
Initial investment: Self-funded undisclosed amount
Future plan: Looking to raise fresh capital and expand in Saudi Arabia
Total Clients: Over 50
