“The big money is not in the buying and the selling, but the sitting.”
Pioneering early 20th-century US investor Jesse Livermore’s words highlight a crucial trait of successful investing: patience.
The bull market born last October should keep delivering worthy returns, but sporadically. Reaping them requires patience, which can be difficult for some.
I’ve long called the market “The Great Humiliator”, and it is up to its old tricks – shaking out the timid with fruitless US Federal Reserve fretting and scary stories of US debt downgrades, China's weakness and more.
Don’t be fooled – this bull market has legs, and it is crucial you don't get scared of it now.
British-American investor Sir John Templeton famously said: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”
Today, scepticism pervades. After extreme bearish sentiment throughout 2022 and early 2023, the American Association of Individual Investors’ weekly sentiment survey has largely tilted more sanguine for three months.
Two thirds of surveyed global fund managers now expect a US “soft landing” – slower growth, but no deep recession.
Yet, doubts around Fitch’s US credit downgrade, a eurozone lending slowdown, consumer debt, Chinese deflation and more are capturing headlines.
Many fear that unexpected US economic resilience means higher interest rates for longer – especially after Fed chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole blathering. Reactions to August’s sharp market swings illustrate all this.
Volatility isn’t a flaw in this bull market. It is a feature of all bull markets, which proverbially climb a “Wall of Worry”.
The myriad fears are all bricks in the wall. Small and unimportant on their own, August’s wiggles are a crucial reminder: Stocks’ climbs aren’t linear.
Since 1926, the S&P 500 endured 34 corrections – sharp, sentiment-driven 10 per cent to 20 per cent drops. The median drop: 13.7 per cent. I count 50 dips of 8 per cent or more – about one every other year.
Some bull markets are often tied to FEAR, or False Evidence Appearing Real. The 2009-2020 bull market had six full-fledged 10 per cent corrections (before dividends), including two early doozies – 2010's 16 per cent jolt and 2011’s 19.4 per cent thumping.
Yet, the 2002-2007 S&P 500 rise had just one. The 1990s bull had three – all within one two-year stretch. There is no pattern – corrections strike at any time for any or no reason. Smaller, herky-jerky plunges, too.
Watch: US Federal Reserve raises rates for 10th consecutive time
I am not predicting that now. Short-term swings defy forecasting. But know they happen.
Bull markets are volatile. Recall the roaring late 1990s? The S&P 500 soared 31 per cent, 26.7 per cent and 19.5 per cent in its last three years. Internet exuberance brought rocket ship gains that many recall as easy money.
Wrong. October 1997’s 10.8 per cent three-week nosedive wasn’t easy. Nor the summer of 1998’s 19.3 per cent swoon. Or that three-month, 12.1 per cent gut punch in the back half of 1999.
Headlines heralded the Russian rouble’s implosion, the Asian financial crisis, Long-Term Capital Management’s bankruptcy and Y2K decimation back then. Easy money? Not quite. Sitting still is hard work.
Ken Fisher is the founder, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer of Fisher Investments, a global investment adviser with $200 billion of assets under management.
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At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
MATCH INFO
Bayern Munich 2 Borussia Monchengladbach 1
Bayern: Zirkzee (26'), Goretzka (86')
Gladbach: Pavard (37' og)
Man of the Match: Breel Embolo (Borussia Monchengladbach)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
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- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
A Cat, A Man, and Two Women
Junichiro Tamizaki
Translated by Paul McCarthy
Daunt Books
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Emirates Cricket Board Women’s T10
ECB Hawks v ECB Falcons
Monday, April 6, 7.30pm, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
The match will be broadcast live on the My Sports Eye Facebook page
Hawks
Coach: Chaitrali Kalgutkar
Squad: Chaya Mughal (captain), Archara Supriya, Chamani Senevirathne, Chathurika Anand, Geethika Jyothis, Indhuja Nandakumar, Kashish Loungani, Khushi Sharma, Khushi Tanwar, Rinitha Rajith, Siddhi Pagarani, Siya Gokhale, Subha Srinivasan, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish
Falcons
Coach: Najeeb Amar
Squad: Kavisha Kumari (captain), Almaseera Jahangir, Annika Shivpuri, Archisha Mukherjee, Judit Cleetus, Ishani Senavirathne, Lavanya Keny, Mahika Gaur, Malavika Unnithan, Rishitha Rajith, Rithika Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Shashini Kaluarachchi, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi, Vaishnave Mahesh
Thank You for Banking with Us
Director: Laila Abbas
Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum
Rating: 4/5
