It came without warning, declaration or an all-clear signal. Last October, terrible 2022’s global bear market died.
A new bull market was born – led by the exact categories that lagged in the bear market.
Doubters from Ajman to Alaska cannot see it, but that beautiful bounce continues now – and still has legs.
As this young bull market charges higher, here are three key sectors that should lead it – and three that could lag behind.
First, always remember: Where you are in a market cycle is more crucial than sector or stock picking. Look at broader market conditions first before considering anything on a more granular level.
Overall, in bull markets, most stocks rise while in a bear market, most fall. Simple! Yet few consider this basic truth.
So, start there. We are in a young bull market now – have been for 10 months – making this a great time to own stocks.
So far, tech and big growth stocks have led the upswing. That should not be surprising, given categories that fall most in bear markets rebound strongest in recoveries – a reality I have detailed in one of my previous columns.
After 2022’s pummelling, global tech soared by a whopping 50.7 per cent off October’s bottom in US dollars through late July. That dwarfs the still-impressive 29.4 per cent rise by world stocks in that span.
Meanwhile, fearful headlines continue dismissing technology’s rise as an artificial intelligence hype-fuelled fake-out, set to fizzle soon.
Such misperceptions are secretly bullish, keeping expectations nicely low for future reality to beat – more firepower for technology stocks.
Other bear market laggards have led, too – including tech-like segments in the communication services and consumer discretionary sectors and industrials, pounded by 2022’s seemingly endless global recession fretting.
After this bounce effect, today’s fundamentals – namely, torpid global economic growth – favour growth-orientated sectors.
In my column on July 4, I detailed how weak expansions lead investors to bid up true growth companies that do not rely on frenetic activity to increase earnings – few and far between.
That means high-quality technology, whose fat gross operating profit margins of 39 per cent drive reinvestment and future growth.
Software and semiconductor companies, in particular, should thrive.
Shop globally for the biggest opportunities. The US is the global centre – start there. Then, look to Germany, Taiwan, South Korea and the Netherlands for country diversification.
Some AI-adjacent technology is fine if it fuels growth but avoid AI pure-plays, however tempting. It is impossible to predict far-flung long-term winners. Do not try to.
The consumer discretionary and communication services sectors should feel a growth turbocharge, too.
In the former, key on luxury goods and its 55 per cent average gross profit margins. I detailed the allure of these sparkling stocks in my column on June 6. You can find them across Europe – France, Switzerland and Italy are hotbeds. Look to the US, too.
Also focus on companies in the broadline retail industry. The biggies are US-based.
In communication services, stodgy old telecoms should lag behind. Instead, feature Big Tech-tied companies in the sector’s interactive media and services industry, which offer some of the best growth opportunities.
They averaged 11.4 per cent in revenue growth in 2022 despite global weakness. Their gross profit margins: 59 per cent. Huge! The US dominates it, so look there.
Look at broader market conditions first before considering anything on a more granular level
Ken Fisher,
founder, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer of Fisher Investments
Laggards? Tied to my view that this is a young bull market, so-called defensive categories face headwinds.
That means health care, consumer staples and utilities. All typically fare better in bear markets.
Why? Folks still need to buy medicine, bread and power during downturns – generating a sense of stability for investors.
But with last year’s bear market well behind us, any stability these categories may have offered flips to risk. Stocks look forward – you should, too.
So, where does that leave energy? Likely lagging. People bid oil and gas stocks too high last year, extrapolating short-term price pinches to 1970s-style shortages that never struck.
Now a supply glut caps global oil and gas prices – and energy companies’ profits.
The US Energy Information Administration projects that the production of liquid fuels around the world will increase by 1.2 million barrels per day this year from 2022 – and by another 1.5 million bpd in 2024.
And despite headlines fretting about Opec production cuts and Russian supply squeezes, oil is down by 37.4 per cent from March 2022’s high.
Markets digested these stale fears long ago and moved on.
That said – and perhaps counter-intuitively – you should own some of the stock market laggards I foresee.
Why? Because I could be wrong. Buying a bit from sectors you expect to lag behind guards against big portfolio swings. Own some, but less than world stock indexes allocate to them.
There will be a time before long to rotate from high-quality growth to a more value-driven portfolio.
But that probably hinges on a global economic reacceleration that does not look close by. So, be bullish – and own growth.
Ken Fisher is the founder, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer of Fisher Investments, a global investment adviser with $200 billion of assets under management
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
Mobile phone packages comparison
If you go
The flights
There are direct flights from Dubai to Sofia with FlyDubai (www.flydubai.com) and Wizz Air (www.wizzair.com), from Dh1,164 and Dh822 return including taxes, respectively.
The trip
Plovdiv is 150km from Sofia, with an hourly bus service taking around 2 hours and costing $16 (Dh58). The Rhodopes can be reached from Sofia in between 2-4hours.
The trip was organised by Bulguides (www.bulguides.com), which organises guided trips throughout Bulgaria. Guiding, accommodation, food and transfers from Plovdiv to the mountains and back costs around 170 USD for a four-day, three-night trip.
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies direct from Dubai to Rio de Janeiro from Dh7,000 return including taxes. Avianca fliles from Rio to Cusco via Lima from $399 (Dhxx) return including taxes.
The trip
From US$1,830 per deluxe cabin, twin share, for the one-night Spirit of the Water itinerary and US$4,630 per deluxe cabin for the Peruvian Highlands itinerary, inclusive of meals, and beverages. Surcharges apply for some excursions.
PROFILE
Name: Enhance Fitness
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
Employees: 200
Amount raised: $3m
Investors: Global Ventures and angel investors
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About Krews
Founder: Ahmed Al Qubaisi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Founded: January 2019
Number of employees: 10
Sector: Technology/Social media
Funding to date: Estimated $300,000 from Hub71 in-kind support
EMERGENCY PHONE NUMBERS
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
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If you go
The flights
Etihad flies direct from Abu Dhabi to San Francisco from Dh5,760 return including taxes.
The car
Etihad Guest members get a 10 per cent worldwide discount when booking with Hertz, as well as earning miles on their rentals. A week's car hire costs from Dh1,500 including taxes.
The hotels
Along the route, Motel 6 (www.motel6.com) offers good value and comfort, with rooms from $55 (Dh202) per night including taxes. In Portland, the Jupiter Hotel (https://jupiterhotel.com/) has rooms from $165 (Dh606) per night including taxes. The Society Hotel https://thesocietyhotel.com/ has rooms from $130 (Dh478) per night including taxes.
More info
To keep up with constant developments in Portland, visit www.travelportland.com. Good guidebooks include the Lonely Planet guides to Northern California and Washington, Oregon & the Pacific Northwest.
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2018 ICC World Twenty20 Asian Western Regional Qualifier
The top three teams progress to the Asia Qualifier
Final: UAE beat Qatar by nine wickets
Third-place play-off: Kuwait beat Saudi Arabia by five runs
Table
1 UAE 5 5 0 10
2 Qatar 5 4 1 8
3 Saudi 5 3 2 6
4 Kuwait 5 2 3 4
5 Bahrain 5 1 4 2
6 Maldives 5 0 5 0
Aldar Properties Abu Dhabi T10
*November 15 to November 24
*Venue: Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
*Tickets: Start at Dh10, from ttensports.com
*TV: Ten Sports
*Streaming: Jio Live
*2017 winners: Kerala Kings
*2018 winners: Northern Warriors
SHALASH%20THE%20IRAQI
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10 tips for entry-level job seekers
- Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
- Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
- Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
- For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
- Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
- Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
- Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
- Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
- Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
- Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.
Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo
Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
