Investors began the new year in a much brighter mood than they ended the last one, and a swift stock market rebound reflected their renewed buoyancy.
Share prices picked up along with sentiment, with Wall Street and London climbing by about 5 per cent in the first two weeks of trading, and Europe up a sprightly 7 per cent.
Many are looking forward to the fabled US Federal Reserve “pivot”, when it eventually stops raising interest rates and starts cutting them. They expect this to fire the starting gun on the next bull market.
Any sign that inflation is falling feeds this narrative, so recent news that US consumer prices fell for the sixth month in a row to 6.5 per cent in December triggered investor optimism.
It sent them scrambling to find more good news, including Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stalling invasion of Ukraine, China’s easing of Covid-19 restrictions and evidence of economic growth, well, anywhere.
Investors started 2023 in the mood for seeing the best in any situation, says Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG.
They have even been celebrating weaker economic data, welcoming a slowdown in US payrolls and manufacturing.
“That might seem odd but the general takeaway is weaker data will slow the Fed earlier than expected, or perhaps bring forward the first cut in US rates,” he says.
The UK’s FTSE 100 index neared a record high, Mr Beauchamp says, and continues to outshine the US - as it did last year.
“Things seem to have brightened considerably for the UK economy in the last few months, while signs of weakening inflation in Germany gave European stocks the boost.”
However, in recent days, the mood has darkened following the crash in Goldman Sachs’s stock price, after it posted a brutal 66 per cent drop in fourth-quarter profits, and a 1.1 per cent decline in US retail sales in December, the biggest fall in a year.
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Watch: US Federal Reserve chief warns of pain in reducing inflation
“With the earnings season only just hitting its stride, such weakness in economic data bodes poorly for corporate results,” Mr Beauchamp says.
Suddenly, those bullish end-of-year forecasts of recovery look overdone, which puts retail investors in a tough position.
Is it time to load up on shares while valuations are still low, or do they risk being swept up in another bear market rally?
Much now rests on the coming earnings season, says Axelle Pinon, a member of the investment committee at fund manager Carmignac.
“2022 was not an easy year for equity investors. We witnessed a significant decrease in the valuation of major indices, but shouldn’t be fooled into thinking all stocks are now cheap.”
S&P 500 earnings expectations for the final quarter of 2022 have dropped more than 10 per cent in recent months, but it is the forward-looking commentary that will matter, Ms Pinon says.
“We expect many companies’ earnings to weaken in 2023 as margins become squeezed by tighter financial conditions, higher input costs and lower demand.”
While companies used their pricing power to pass on inflationary costs to customers last year, this should prove harder in 2023, Ms Pinon says.
“Pricing power should wane, leaving companies squeezed between rising labour costs and slowing output prices or demand.”
Only companies with healthy profit margins and relatively low debt are expected to withstand the subsequent margin squeeze, Ms Pinon says. She suggests investors look beyond the overvalued US to China and, to a lesser extent, Japan.
Both are going through major changes that should prove positive, as China reopens and Japan eventually reverses its long-standing monetary policy.
Investors banking on a US technology rally may have to be extra patient, she says, quoting Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella, who said last week that there would be two more years of pain before a “massive” technology rally.
Higher borrowing costs mean technology companies “can no longer drive long-term growth at the cost of short-term profitability”, Ms Pinon adds.
Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management, shares Ms Pinon's view that Asia is the place to be right now as it offers investors respite from weak growth and tighter monetary conditions in the West.
Pictet is starting 2023 with a “tilt” towards Asian and emerging market equities, particularly China, “amid signs that Beijing is seeking to normalise its pandemic policies”.
“Pent-up consumption should be a big boost to the domestic Chinese economy, once it gets past Covid,” Mr Paolini says.
Last year marked the end of an era as years of low inflation and interest rates finally went into reverse, says Andrew Bell, chief executive of the Witan Investment Trust, who also favours China.
“Pent-up demand, a restoration of industrial production and determined government efforts to end the slump in China’s property sector are likely to mean the world’s second-largest economy is the only major centre to pick up speed in 2023, mitigating the weakness elsewhere.”
Pent-up consumption should be a big boost to the domestic Chinese economy, once it gets past Covid
Luca Paolini,
chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management
This should drive global growth, but with a potential downside.
“China’s appetite for commodities may slow the decline in inflation over 2023, prolonging the peak in interest rates,” Mr Bell says.
Investors may have to wait longer than they would like for the Fed pivot but Mr Bell remains optimistic as energy prices wane and the green transition gathers pace.
“We anticipate greater infrastructure investment in sustainable energy sources, both for climate policy reasons and to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons after the price surge in 2022.”
Investors expecting a swift return to the economic and monetary conditions of the past decade will be disappointed, warns Yves Bonzon, group chief investment officer at private Swiss bank Julius Baer.
The Fed will struggle to reduce inflation to its 2 per cent target. Instead, it will “be structurally higher going forward and settle around 3 per cent”.
The road ahead is volatile and there is the added risk that central banks will make a serious policy mistake by tightening too fast and draining the market of liquidity, he says.
The good news is that the worst is now behind us, as this year’s starting position is much more favourable than January 2022, Mr Bonzon says.
So, investors are right to be positive but they simply need to be patient. The recovery is coming but it may take a little longer than we would like. In the meantime, take a look at China.
Watch: What is a recession?
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ABU DHABI CARD
5pm: UAE Martyrs Cup (TB) Conditions; Dh90,000; 2,200m
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Handicap; Dh70,000; 1,400m
6pm: UAE Matyrs Trophy (PA) Maiden; Dh80,000; 1,600m
6.30pm: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak (IFAHR) Apprentice Championship (PA) Prestige; Dh100,000; 1,600m
7pm: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak (IFAHR) Ladies World Championship (PA) Prestige; Dh125,000; 1,600m
8pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan Jewel Crown (PA) Group 1; Dh5,000,000; 1,600m
Racecard
5.25pm: Etihad Museum – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,200m
6pm: Al Shindaga Museum – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (Dirt) 1,200m
6.35pm: Poet Al Oqaili – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,400m
7.10pm: Majlis Ghurfat Al Sheif – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,600m
7.45pm: Hatta – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,400m
8.20pm: Al Fahidi – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 2,200m
8.55pm: Zabeel Trophy – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (T) 1,600m
9.30pm: Coins Museum – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,600m
10.05pm: Al Quoz Creative – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,000m
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blow a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
Keir Starmer failed to give her his backing as she cried but later said she would be in the job for 'a long time to come'.
A spokesman said her upset was due to a personal matter.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
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Company%20profile
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Moonfall
Director: Rolan Emmerich
Stars: Patrick Wilson, Halle Berry
Rating: 3/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs: McLaren 600LT
Price, base: Dh914,000
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 600hp @ 7,500rpm
Torque: 620Nm @ 5,500rpm
Fuel economy 12.2.L / 100km
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE%20medallists%20at%20Asian%20Games%202023
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
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MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
More on animal trafficking
The five pillars of Islam
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
Haircare resolutions 2021
From Beirut and Amman to London and now Dubai, hairstylist George Massoud has seen the same mistakes made by customers all over the world. In the chair or at-home hair care, here are the resolutions he wishes his customers would make for the year ahead.
1. 'I will seek consultation from professionals'
You may know what you want, but are you sure it’s going to suit you? Haircare professionals can tell you what will work best with your skin tone, hair texture and lifestyle.
2. 'I will tell my hairdresser when I’m not happy'
Massoud says it’s better to offer constructive criticism to work on in the future. Your hairdresser will learn, and you may discover how to communicate exactly what you want more effectively the next time.
3. ‘I will treat my hair better out of the chair’
Damage control is a big part of most hairstylists’ work right now, but it can be avoided. Steer clear of over-colouring at home, try and pursue one hair brand at a time and never, ever use a straightener on still drying hair, pleads Massoud.
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
MEDIEVIL%20(1998)
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UJDA CHAMAN
Produced: Panorama Studios International
Directed: Abhishek Pathak
Cast: Sunny Singh, Maanvi Gagroo, Grusha Kapoor, Saurabh Shukla
Rating: 3.5 /5 stars
The Greatest Royal Rumble card as it stands
The Greatest Royal Rumble card as it stands
50-man Royal Rumble - names entered so far include Braun Strowman, Daniel Bryan, Kurt Angle, Big Show, Kane, Chris Jericho, The New Day and Elias
Universal Championship Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
WWE World Heavyweight ChampionshipAJ Styles (champion) v Shinsuke Nakamura
Intercontinental Championship Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
United States Championship Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
SmackDown Tag Team Championship The Bludgeon Brothers (champions) v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship (currently vacant) Cesaro and Sheamus v Matt Hardy and Bray Wyatt
Casket match The Undertaker v Chris Jericho
Singles match John Cena v Triple H
Cruiserweight Championship Cedric Alexander v tba
SERIES INFO
Schedule:
All matches at the Harare Sports Club
1st ODI, Wed Apr 10
2nd ODI, Fri Apr 12
3rd ODI, Sun Apr 14
4th ODI, Sun Apr 16
UAE squad
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
Zimbabwe squad
Peter Moor (captain), Solomon Mire, Brian Chari, Regis Chakabva, Sean Williams, Timycen Maruma, Sikandar Raza, Donald Tiripano, Kyle Jarvis, Tendai Chatara, Chris Mpofu, Craig Ervine, Brandon Mavuta, Ainsley Ndlovu, Tony Munyonga, Elton Chigumbura
Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Result:
1. Cecilie Hatteland (NOR) atop Alex - 31.46 seconds
2. Anna Gorbacheva (RUS) atop Curt 13 - 31.82 seconds
3. Georgia Tame (GBR) atop Cash Up - 32.81 seconds
4. Sheikha Latifa bint Ahmed Al Maktoum (UAE) atop Peanuts de Beaufour - 35.85 seconds
5. Miriam Schneider (GER) atop Benur du Romet - 37.53 seconds
6. Annika Sande (NOR) atop For Cash 2 - 31.42 seconds (4 penalties)
Yahya Al Ghassani's bio
Date of birth: April 18, 1998
Playing position: Winger
Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
