In 2022, the majority of things that could have gone wrong for investors did go wrong.
Markets that entered the year with extended valuations buckled in the face of elevated inflation, an aggressive global rate increase cycle, the conflict in Ukraine and China’s economic challenges.
Unusually, stocks and bonds experienced significant losses in 2022, making it one of the worst years yet for a balanced portfolio.
The consequences of global tightening
In 2022, central banks around the world initiated an aggressive global rate increase cycle to combat elevated inflation.
Although there are indications that global inflation is on track to decline, it is unclear by how much and how quickly.
While investors may, at first glance, welcome this news, historical evidence suggests that the real economy suffers the greatest damage after interest rates have already risen.
The bad news: We believe a recession is likely in 2023.
The good news: Central banks are likely to soften the rate increases and inflation will most likely fall.
Valuation resets: the best in a decade
In our opinion, a dramatic reset in valuations, with higher yields and lower stock multiples, has created the most attractive entry point for a traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds in more than a decade.
In fact, our long-term outlook for returns across asset classes is significantly more optimistic than it was a year ago.
For 2023, we think investors can focus on two central questions.
Question: What assets might help protect my portfolio through a recession?
Answer: Core bonds
Q: How much future damage to cash flows and corporate earnings do risk assets already reflect?
A: Substantial risk — but probably not all
We believe that investors can now find opportunities in core bonds, preferred equities, small and mid-cap stocks and infrastructure and transport assets.
Through 2023, as markets shift to reflect the anticipated economic limitations, additional opportunities will probably emerge in sectors such as real estate and large-cap equities.
Bonds are back
Only a few quarters ago, traditional fixed income faced a significant challenge: it offered neither an enticing level of income nor sufficient protection against economic downturns.
With Treasury, corporate and municipal bond yields at their highest levels in a decade, income and portfolio diversification are once more available.
That’s a change that all investors should pay attention to.
In many segments of the fixed-income market, current yields are now equivalent to historical equity returns.
This could provide an opportunity for investors to achieve their objectives with less risk.
As interest rates decline during a recession, longer-duration core fixed income (such as investment-grade corporates or municipal bonds) may offer potential total returns in the double digits.
Stocks: reversal of fortunes
In 2023, we anticipate that equities are well positioned to deliver positive returns, and any material decline from current levels could represent a good buying opportunity.
In terms of specific sectors, health care continues to be our preference because revenues aren’t as cyclical as they are in other sectors and valuations seem reasonable.
However, we also see opportunity in quality, cash flow–generating tech and tech-related companies that were hit by higher interest rates.
Industrial companies, on the other hand, provide some inflation protection and benefit from the tailwind of global infrastructure and defence investment.
Dividend growth and value companies could be well positioned, given the uncertain macro environment and higher interest rates.
A banner year for alternatives
Private markets that were once thriving have begun to experience the strain that is virtually inevitable in public markets.
The assets of growth equity funds, real estate vehicles and private credit managers have all been marked down to varying degrees, and further markdowns are likely.
2022 tested the resolve of many investors. The equity markets experienced one of their most severe declines in history
Steven Rees,
JP Morgan Private Bank
In contrast, other alternative investments, such as hedge funds that concentrate on rates, currencies and cross-asset correlations, had a banner year and demonstrated their value as portfolio diversifiers.
Gold may serve a similar function in 2023 as the dollar and real interest rates reach their apexes.
In 2023 and beyond, we anticipate a renewed emphasis on stability and security throughout the global economy.
Real assets such as infrastructure, transportation and the energy transition create a wide range of possibilities for public and private investors.
Overall, 2022 tested the resolve of many investors. The equity markets experienced one of their most severe declines in history.
Not only were bonds incapable of shielding portfolios from the equity sell-off, but they also suffered their steepest losses in decades.
However, better days are ahead. Even as the economy worsens in 2023, we believe markets could stabilise.
The global reset in valuations is presenting investors with a broader range of viable options to help achieve their goals.
Most importantly, we encourage investors to focus on their process.
To first define and revisit their financial goals and then design the investment portfolios with the potential to reach them.
Steven Rees is head of investments for the Middle East and North Africa at JP Morgan Private Bank
Scorebox
Dubai Sports City Eagles 7 Bahrain 88
Eagles
Try: Penalty
Bahrain
Tries: Gibson 2, Morete 2, Bishop 2, Bell 2, Behan, Fameitau, Sanson, Roberts, Bennett, Radley
Cons: Radley 4, Whittingham 5
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The specs
Engine: 0.8-litre four cylinder
Power: 70bhp
Torque: 66Nm
Transmission: four-speed manual
Price: $1,075 new in 1967, now valued at $40,000
On sale: Models from 1966 to 1970
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
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%3Cp%3EHigh%20fever%20(40%C2%B0C%2F104%C2%B0F)%3Cbr%3ESevere%20headache%3Cbr%3EPain%20behind%20the%20eyes%3Cbr%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3Cbr%3ENausea%3Cbr%3EVomiting%3Cbr%3ESwollen%20glands%3Cbr%3ERash%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20Z%20FLIP%204
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMain%20%E2%80%93%206.7%22%20FHD%20Dynamic%20Amoled%202X%2C%202640%20x%201080%2C%2022%3A9%2C%20425ppi%2C%20HDR10%2B%2C%20up%20to%20120Hz%3B%20cover%20%E2%80%93%201.9%22%20Super%20Amoled%2C%20512%20x%20260%2C%20302ppi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Qualcomm%20Snapdragon%208%2B%20Gen%201%2C%204nm%2C%20octa-core%3B%20Adreno%20730%20GPU%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20128%2F256%2F512GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Android%2012%2C%20One%20UI%204.1.1%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%2012MP%20ultra-wide%20(f%2F2.2)%20%2B%2012MP%20wide%20(f%2F1.8)%2C%20OIS%2C%20portrait%2C%20super%20slo-mo%2C%20hyperlapse%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%4030%2F60fps%2C%20full-HD%4030%2F60fps%2C%20HD%4030fps%3B%20slo-mo%40240%2F960fps%3B%20HDR10%2B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010MP%20(f%2F2.4)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203700mAh%2C%2025W%20fast%20charging%2C%2015W%20wireless%20charging%2C%20reverse%20wireless%20charging%2C%20'all-day'%20life%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205G%3B%20Wi-Fi%2C%20Bluetooth%205.2%2C%20NFC%20(Samsung%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20USB-C%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nano-SIM%20%2B%20eSIM%3B%20no%20microSD%20slot%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bora%20purple%2C%20graphite%2C%20pink%20gold%2C%20blue%3B%20Bespoke%20Edition%20in%20select%20countries%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Flip%204%2C%20USB-C-to-USB-C%20cable%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dh3%2C799%20%2F%20Dh3%2C999%20%2F%20Dh4%2C449%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
What is a Ponzi scheme?
A fraudulent investment operation where the scammer provides fake reports and generates returns for old investors through money paid by new investors, rather than through ligitimate business activities.
The specs: 2018 Harley-Davidson Fat Boy
Price, base / as tested Dh97,600
Engine 1,745cc Milwaukee-Eight v-twin engine
Transmission Six-speed gearbox
Power 78hp @ 5,250rpm
Torque 145Nm @ 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 5.0L / 100km (estimate)
The years Ramadan fell in May
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
RESULT
Brazil 2 Croatia 0
Brazil: Neymar (69'), Firmino (90' 3)
