Many investors will be full of regrets after a volatile 2022, especially those who piled into risky assets at the top of the market in November last year, only for them to crash from inflated highs.
The investment world has been turned upside-down this year, and not only by the Russia-Ukraine war.
We have also seen an energy shock, ongoing Covid lockdowns in China and, most important of all from an investment point of view, the end of the cheap money era as inflation returns after more than 40 years.
That finally killed off the longest US bull market run in history, as a dozen years of near-zero interest rates and fiscal and monetary stimulus came to an abrupt end and interest rates increased.
Money is no longer available in cheap abundance and investors have to be more careful with it, wiping out frothier corners of the market.
Perhaps a bigger shock is that safe-haven asset classes crashed, too. So, there is plenty to regret, but more to look forward to next year.
US tech
The US S&P 500 enjoyed a terrific decade, as tech companies Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla and Google-owner Alphabet turned into trillion-dollar companies. Or, in the case of Apple, Microsoft and (very briefly) Google, $2 trillion companies.
However, this year saw the S&P 500 drop more than a quarter into bear market territory, with the Nasdaq down a third.
Amazon, Netflix and Tesla have lost half their value this year, with Facebook (now renamed Meta Platforms) plunging two thirds.
Investors buy growth companies to share in their future profits, but when inflation explodes, it erodes the value of those earnings in real terms making them less attractive.
The outlook for US tech in 2023 now rests on consumer prices and interest rate movements, says Joshua Mahony, senior market analyst at online trading platform IG.
“Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google have all made gains lately, but those same names may be hit hard if inflation proves difficult to control,” he adds.
Equity markets now present a buying opportunity, says Stéphane Monier, chief investment officer at Swiss private bank Lombard Odier.
“As inflation and the threat of higher rates begin to fade, stock valuations and multiples will benefit.”
Easing financial conditions will boost sentiment and investors will start to look ahead for a cyclical recovery in 2024, he says.
Regret ratio: surprisingly low.
The bull run had to end at some point and long-term investors in US tech should still be nicely ahead. Tesla stock is still up 585 per cent over five years. Over 10 years, it has soared 6,869 per cent.
Watch: Why is everything so expensive right now?
Emerging markets
War in Ukraine, soaring energy prices, lockdowns in China, a global recession and the strong US dollar were tough on emerging markets, which fell 17.43 per cent in the year to November 30, according to MSCI.
Yet, Mr Monier expects emerging equities to rebound once the US Federal Reserve “pivots” on interest rates. They may outperform developed markets as international investor appetite and confidence returns.
Regret ratio: low.
Everybody knew emerging markets were risky. The recovery will come.
Crypto
Hardcore crypto investors don’t do regret. Like most cults, any setbacks are typically seen as another step towards the promised land.
Even Bitcoin’s crash from $67,000 to $16,500 has not dimmed enthusiasm for this largely useless asset class. Nor has the collapse of FTX and arrest of founder Sam Bankman-Fried on fraud and conspiracy charges.
Bitcoin actually rose on the news, as crypto investors saw this as another step towards regulation and respectability.
Crypto will continue to lurch from feast to famine, says Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell.
The proliferation of coins and crypto ecosystems has been funded by a wall of blank cheque money that will be harder to come by as interest rates rise
Laith Khalaf,
head of investment analysis, AJ Bell
“The proliferation of coins and crypto ecosystems has been funded by a wall of blank cheque money that will be harder to come by as interest rates rise.”
Regret ratio: not as high as it should be.
Anybody who bought into the idea of a Bitcoin being “digital gold” should be seething with regrets after this year’s crash. If crypto investors do not realise the risks they are taking, there is no hope for them.
US dollar
Nobody will regret holding the US dollar this year. At the time of writing, it is up more than 7 per cent against the euro, Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars, almost 10 per cent against sterling and nearly 20 per cent against the Japanese yen.
The greenback is the ultimate safe haven and it has been given a further boost by the Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening.
“It remains head and shoulders above the rest of the major currencies thanks to the Fed’s hawkish stance and a relatively stronger US economy,” says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and Forex.
The Fed has lifted its funds rate from 0.5 per cent to 4.4 per cent, giving investors a better return.
Watch: US Federal Reserve chief warns of 'pain' in reducing inflation
As long as inflation and interest rates stay high, so will the dollar, Mr Razaqzada says.
“The Fed will have to be quite dovish to cause the dollar to sell off significantly further from current levels.”
Regret ratio: zero.
The US dollar will inevitably fall when inflation eases. It’s had a great run, though.
Gold
Gold is supposed to be the ultimate “no regrets” investment because of its safe-haven status and reputation as a hedge against inflation, but this year it has been hugely disappointing.
After peaking at $2,074.60 on March 8, the gold price slumped below $1,700 in September and had recovered slightly to trade at $1,775 at the time of writing.
Gold is priced in US dollars and greenback strength has made it more expensive for buyers in other currencies, hitting demand, as have China's lockdowns.
Also, gold does not pay interest, while rival safe-haven cash does.
The Fed will have to be quite dovish to cause the dollar to sell off significantly further from current levels
Fawad Razaqzada,
market analyst, City Index and Forex
Gold could regain some of its lost appeal this year, says Mr Monier. “With lower rates, a weaker US dollar, and a reopening China, the price should rise.”
Regret ratio: surprisingly high.
Gold has been a store of value for more than 4,000 years, but not this year. It is worth retaining some exposure as a portfolio wild card.
Cash
After more than a decade of near-zero returns, cash is now flying with rates of 4 per cent a year or more now available, with no risk.
However, inflation is flying much higher, so the value of your holdings will still be falling in real terms.
Regret ratio: low.
Everybody should hold some cash and it's great news that savers are finally getting a return on their money. It still isn't a home for long-term wealth, though.
Bonds
Investors expect equities to crash. Bonds, not so much. Especially by up to 20 per cent as happened this year.
Bonds could be back next year, says Kathy Jones, fixed income chief at Charles Schwab.
“After years of low yields followed by a brutal drop in prices during 2022, returns appear poised to rebound. Bonds may now provide attractive yields at lower risk than we have seen for several years.”
Ms Jones warns that it may still be “a bumpy ride” depending on “global central banks’ tightening policies, a volatile global economy and ongoing political uncertainty”.
Regret ratio: fairly high.
Bond investors expect to be shielded from volatility, rather than exposed to it. Yet, today could prove an attractive buying opportunity.
Try out the test yourself
Q1 Suppose you had $100 in a savings account and the interest rate was 2 per cent per year. After five years, how much do you think you would have in the account if you left the money to grow?
a) More than $102
b) Exactly $102
c) Less than $102
d) Do not know
e) Refuse to answer
Q2 Imagine that the interest rate on your savings account was 1 per cent per year and inflation was 2 per cent per year. After one year, how much would you be able to buy with the money in this account?
a) More than today
b) Exactly the same as today
c) Less than today
d) Do not know
e) Refuse to answer
Q4 Do you think that the following statement is true or false? “Buying a single company stock usually provides a safer return than a stock mutual fund.”
a) True
b) False
d) Do not know
e) Refuse to answer
The “Big Three” financial literacy questions were created by Professors Annamaria Lusardi of the George Washington School of Business and Olivia Mitchell, of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Answers: Q1 More than $102 (compound interest). Q2 Less than today (inflation). Q3 False (diversification).
Polarised public
31% in UK say BBC is biased to left-wing views
19% in UK say BBC is biased to right-wing views
19% in UK say BBC is not biased at all
Source: YouGov
Scoreline
Saudi Arabia 1-0 Japan
Saudi Arabia Al Muwallad 63’
Company%20profile
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U19 World Cup in South Africa
Group A: India, Japan, New Zealand, Sri Lanka
Group B: Australia, England, Nigeria, West Indies
Group C: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Scotland, Zimbabwe
Group D: Afghanistan, Canada, South Africa, UAE
UAE fixtures
Saturday, January 18, v Canada
Wednesday, January 22, v Afghanistan
Saturday, January 25, v South Africa
UAE squad
Aryan Lakra (captain), Vriitya Aravind, Deshan Chethyia, Mohammed Farazuddin, Jonathan Figy, Osama Hassan, Karthik Meiyappan, Rishabh Mukherjee, Ali Naseer, Wasi Shah, Alishan Sharafu, Sanchit Sharma, Kai Smith, Akasha Tahir, Ansh Tandon
Ruwais timeline
1971 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company established
1980 Ruwais Housing Complex built, located 10 kilometres away from industrial plants
1982 120,000 bpd capacity Ruwais refinery complex officially inaugurated by the founder of the UAE Sheikh Zayed
1984 Second phase of Ruwais Housing Complex built. Today the 7,000-unit complex houses some 24,000 people.
1985 The refinery is expanded with the commissioning of a 27,000 b/d hydro cracker complex
2009 Plans announced to build $1.2 billion fertilizer plant in Ruwais, producing urea
2010 Adnoc awards $10bn contracts for expansion of Ruwais refinery, to double capacity from 415,000 bpd
2014 Ruwais 261-outlet shopping mall opens
2014 Production starts at newly expanded Ruwais refinery, providing jet fuel and diesel and allowing the UAE to be self-sufficient for petrol supplies
2014 Etihad Rail begins transportation of sulphur from Shah and Habshan to Ruwais for export
2017 Aldar Academies to operate Adnoc’s schools including in Ruwais from September. Eight schools operate in total within the housing complex.
2018 Adnoc announces plans to invest $3.1 billion on upgrading its Ruwais refinery
2018 NMC Healthcare selected to manage operations of Ruwais Hospital
2018 Adnoc announces new downstream strategy at event in Abu Dhabi on May 13
Source: The National
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Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S23%20ULTRA
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The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 502hp at 7,600rpm
Torque: 637Nm at 5,150rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Price: from Dh317,671
On sale: now
DIVINE%20INTERVENTOIN
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ANATOMY%20OF%20A%20FALL
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THE BIO
Favourite author - Paulo Coelho
Favourite holiday destination - Cuba
New York Times or Jordan Times? NYT is a school and JT was my practice field
Role model - My Grandfather
Dream interviewee - Che Guevara
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
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White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
The specs: 2017 Ford F-150 Raptor
Price, base / as tested Dh220,000 / Dh320,000
Engine 3.5L V6
Transmission 10-speed automatic
Power 421hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 678Nm @ 3,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 14.1L / 100km
The%20Witcher%20-%20season%20three
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Company%20profile
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More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany
- At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people
- Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed
- Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest
- He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
Company Profile
Name: JustClean
Based: Kuwait with offices in other GCC countries
Launch year: 2016
Number of employees: 130
Sector: online laundry service
Funding: $12.9m from Kuwait-based Faith Capital Holding
UAE Premiership
Results
Dubai Exiles 24-28 Jebel Ali Dragons
Abu Dhabi Harlequins 43-27 Dubai Hurricanes
Fixture
Friday, March 29, Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Jebel Ali Dragons, The Sevens, Dubai
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
What is a Ponzi scheme?
A fraudulent investment operation where the scammer provides fake reports and generates returns for old investors through money paid by new investors, rather than through ligitimate business activities.
