Can you see them? While a barrage of horrid headlines blinds most investors, a stealthy stream of economic positives builds.
This growing gap between sunken sentiment and improving realities precedes a positive surprise — fuel for stocks’ long-awaited recovery.
Let me show you the better-than-believed realities hiding in plain sight.
Perhaps this sounds like I’m using rose-tinted glasses. That is understandable given the hard 2022 we have had.
But that reaction is standard around bear market lows, when what I call the “pessimism of disbelief” makes investors hyper-focused on bad news, dismissing positives. That is everywhere today.
Globally, sentiment surveys are dour. Only 28.9 per cent of respondents were bullish in the latest weekly survey by the American Association of Individual Investors.
Before rising slightly in November, Sentix’s eurozone economic expectations index hit a 14-year low, with Germany’s reading the lowest since January 2009.
GfK’s UK confidence gauge registered its two lowest-ever readings in October and November.
But set aside this year’s frustration to correctly envisage the landscape.
Start with global supply chains. The New York Federal Reserve’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index ended 2019 at 0.01 — signalling no identifiable issues.
Last December, it soared to 4.3 — hugely above its norm, statistically — tied to the fallout from the Covid-19 shutdown.
Now? It is 1.0 — elevated, but far below peak disruption.
One key component, the Baltic Dry Index of shipping costs, is -76.5 per cent off October 2021’s high.
Purchasing managers’ indexes reveal supply chain snarls unwinding, cooling input price pressures.
S&P’s US manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index showed October input costs rose the slowest in nearly two years as supply chain hiccups unwound. Hence, US consumer and producer prices cooled in October.
But many slowing inflation harbingers are not yet evident in Consumer Price Index data.
Quickly adapting supply chains create another positive surprise: Europe’s better-than-feared energy reality.
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused western boycotts, supply chains reshuffled — fast.
India and China bought up discounted Russian oil, freeing other supplies for Europe — American, North African and Middle Eastern.
That saps sanctions’ effectiveness, but helps supply/demand dynamics.
Watch: what is a recession?
Through the third quarter, global oil supply exceeded demand. Price signals have producers pumping more — look at Adnoc accelerating planned production increases.
Hence, oil prices fell -37.2 per cent since March’s high in US dollars, bringing down petrol prices.
Regarding European natural gas fears, the International Energy Agency says the bloc’s storage is 95 per cent full — above the five-year average. Germany is at 100 per cent.
The continent’s first new natural gas pipeline in decades — a Danish and Polish endeavour — began carrying Norwegian gas to central Europe in October.
Several new German liquefied natural gas terminals are expected to come online early in 2023.
Yet pundits dismiss these developments, shrieking yeah, but next year will be worse — classic pessimism of disbelief.
Meanwhile, third quarter US gross domestic product growth flipped positive at 2.9 per cent annualised.
Chinese growth hit 3.9 per cent year over year, up sharply from the second quarter’s 0.4 per cent.
The high oil prices many bemoan boosted Middle East growth. Even eurozone GDP topped expectations at 0.8 per cent annualised.
Yes, Japan’s GDP contracted, but that was caused by a weak yen quirk skewing import prices.
These growing buds of optimism won’t stay hidden for ever. Look past the gloom and appreciate them
Ken Fisher,
founder, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer of Fisher Investments
Easing travel restrictions tee up a turnaround in the fourth quarter.
Citi’s US, eurozone, UK and China economic surprise indexes are all now positive — well above negative midyear lows. Still, recession chatter dominates.
Yet recession likely isn’t nearby. Why?
Lending overall, excluding mortgages, remains robust globally — fuel for investment and incongruent with recession.
Businesses and households generally don’t sit on bank borrowings. They spend them!
Global loan growth has accelerated every month since March, reaching 9.3 per cent year-over-year in September. In America, it hit 12 per cent.
This isn’t flukiness — it is fundamental.
Abundant cash deposits keep deposit rates — banks’ funding costs — minuscule. Average US savings accounts yield a paltry 0.2 per cent.
Best-in-a-decade UK rates make headlines … but attached limits and fees keep banks’ payouts puny.
Meanwhile, long rates’ global rise boosts new loan revenue. More profitable loans incentivise more lending, staving off recession.
Other positives? Travel. Somewhat ignored now is the world economy’s continued reopening.
New data show September global air travel soared 57 per cent year over year, at 74 per cent of pre-pandemic levels.
In the week ending November 19, US hotel occupancy rates topped the same week in 2019 — despite 19.8 per cent higher prices.
These perking, overlooked positives intersect with America’s post-election political clarity — a huge global market driver.
The success of US Republicans in capturing the House of Representatives in November’s midterm elections has cemented gridlock, which stocks love. They hate big, controversial legislation increasing uncertainty. Gridlock squashes that through 2024 — bullish.
These growing buds of optimism won’t stay hidden for ever. Look past the gloom and appreciate them.
Ken Fisher is the founder, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer of Fisher Investments, a global investment adviser with $160 billion of assets under management
Company profile
Company name: Dharma
Date started: 2018
Founders: Charaf El Mansouri, Nisma Benani, Leah Howe
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: TravelTech
Funding stage: Pre-series A
Investors: Convivialite Ventures, BY Partners, Shorooq Partners, L& Ventures, Flat6Labs
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
How tumultuous protests grew
- A fuel tax protest by French drivers appealed to wider anti-government sentiment
- Unlike previous French demonstrations there was no trade union or organised movement involved
- Demonstrators responded to online petitions and flooded squares to block traffic
- At its height there were almost 300,000 on the streets in support
- Named after the high visibility jackets that drivers must keep in cars
- Clashes soon turned violent as thousands fought with police at cordons
- An estimated two dozen people lost eyes and many others were admitted to hospital
MATCH INFO
Euro 2020 qualifier
Russia v Scotland, Thursday, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, Group B
Barcelona v Inter Milan
Camp Nou, Barcelona
Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Results
International 4, United States 1
Justin Thomas and Tiger Woods (US) beat Marc Leishman and Joaquin Niemann (International) 4 and 3.
Adam Hadwin and Sungjae Im (International) beat Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay (US) 2 up.
Adam Scott and Byeong Hun An (International) beat Bryson DeChambeau and Tony Finau (US) 2 and 1.
Hideki Matsuyama and C.T. Pan (International) beat Webb Simpson and Patrick Reed (US) 1 up.
Abraham Ancer and Louis Oosthuizen (International) beat Dustin Johnson and Gary Woodland (US) 4 and 3.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Race card
6.30pm: Emirates Holidays Maiden (TB), Dh82,500 (Dirt), 1,900m
7.05pm: Arabian Adventures Maiden (TB), Dh82,500 (D), 1,200m
7.40pm: Emirates Skywards Handicap (TB), Dh82,500 (D), 1,200m
8.15pm: Emirates Airline Conditions (TB), Dh120,000 (D), 1,400m
8.50pm: Emirates Sky Cargo (TB), Dh92,500 (D)1,400m
9.15pm: Emirates.com (TB), Dh95,000 (D), 2,000m
What is the definition of an SME?
SMEs in the UAE are defined by the number of employees, annual turnover and sector. For example, a “small company” in the services industry has six to 50 employees with a turnover of more than Dh2 million up to Dh20m, while in the manufacturing industry the requirements are 10 to 100 employees with a turnover of more than Dh3m up to Dh50m, according to Dubai SME, an agency of the Department of Economic Development.
A “medium-sized company” can either have staff of 51 to 200 employees or 101 to 250 employees, and a turnover less than or equal to Dh200m or Dh250m, again depending on whether the business is in the trading, manufacturing or services sectors.
Profile of MoneyFellows
Founder: Ahmed Wadi
Launched: 2016
Employees: 76
Financing stage: Series A ($4 million)
Investors: Partech, Sawari Ventures, 500 Startups, Dubai Angel Investors, Phoenician Fund
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Votes
Total votes: 1.8 million
Ashraf Ghani: 923,592 votes
Abdullah Abdullah: 720,841 votes
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
Saturday (UAE kick-off times)
Watford v Leicester City (3.30pm)
Brighton v Arsenal (6pm)
West Ham v Wolves (8.30pm)
Bournemouth v Crystal Palace (10.45pm)
Sunday
Newcastle United v Sheffield United (5pm)
Aston Villa v Chelsea (7.15pm)
Everton v Liverpool (10pm)
Monday
Manchester City v Burnley (11pm)
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre supercharged V8
Power: 712hp at 6,100rpm
Torque: 881Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 19.6 l/100km
Price: Dh380,000
On sale: now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
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More from Neighbourhood Watch
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
MATCH INFO
Asian Champions League, last 16, first leg:
Al Ain 2 Al Duhail 4
Second leg:
Tuesday, Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha. Kick off 7.30pm
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The biog
Favourite film: The Notebook
Favourite book: What I know for sure by Oprah Winfrey
Favourite quote: “Social equality is the only basis of human happiness” Nelson Madela. Hometown: Emmen, The Netherlands
Favourite activities: Walking on the beach, eating at restaurants and spending time with friends
Job: Founder and Managing Director of Mawaheb from Beautiful Peopl
The years Ramadan fell in May
Volunteers offer workers a lifeline
Community volunteers have swung into action delivering food packages and toiletries to the men.
When provisions are distributed, the men line up in long queues for packets of rice, flour, sugar, salt, pulses, milk, biscuits, shaving kits, soap and telecom cards.
Volunteers from St Mary’s Catholic Church said some workers came to the church to pray for their families and ask for assistance.
Boxes packed with essential food items were distributed to workers in the Dubai Investments Park and Ras Al Khaimah camps last week. Workers at the Sonapur camp asked for Dh1,600 towards their gas bill.
“Especially in this year of tolerance we consider ourselves privileged to be able to lend a helping hand to our needy brothers in the Actco camp," Father Lennie Connully, parish priest of St Mary’s.
Workers spoke of their helplessness, seeing children’s marriages cancelled because of lack of money going home. Others told of their misery of being unable to return home when a parent died.
“More than daily food, they are worried about not sending money home for their family,” said Kusum Dutta, a volunteer who works with the Indian consulate.
The biog
Fatima Al Darmaki is an Emirati widow with three children
She has received 46 certificates of appreciation and excellence throughout her career
She won the 'ideal mother' category at the Minister of Interior Awards for Excellence
Her favourite food is Harees, a slow-cooked porridge-like dish made from boiled wheat berries mixed with chicken
HOW DO SIM CARD SCAMS WORK?
Sim swap frauds are a form of identity theft.
They involve criminals conning mobile phone operators into issuing them with replacement Sim cards, often by claiming their phone has been lost or stolen
They use the victim's personal details - obtained through criminal methods - to convince such companies of their identity.
The criminal can then access any online service that requires security codes to be sent to a user's mobile phone, such as banking services.
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Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
