The dollar has notched up its worst week since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, but analysts think a long-running surge for the greenback might not be over just yet.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slumped about 3.5 per cent this week, its biggest loss since March 2020.
Investors had been trimming bets on the dollar before Thursday’s US inflation data, with a slowdown in prices leading to a pummelling in the index’s worst one-day performance since 2009 as traders eased back bets on how much policy tightening they expect from the Federal Reserve.
The latest selling means the dollar gauge is now 6 per cent below the record peak it hit in late September, with the yen the main beneficiary.
While the moves suggest the greenback could stay under pressure in coming weeks on bets the Fed will start increasing interest rates in smaller increments, market participants remain cautious that the trend will continue in the longer run.
“The dollar peak might be past us, but a dollar downtrend may not be there yet,” ING Groep analysts wrote in a note, adding that the Dutch bank remains “moderately bullish” on the dollar into year-end.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed by more than 22 per cent from its mid-2021 low to its September 2022 peak and even with recent declines, it is still up more than 14 per cent from last year’s nadir.
That strength has rippled across markets, exacerbating the cost of dollar-denominated goods such as oil and complicating policy around the world.
US stocks and bonds rallied this week as the dollar slid.
The dollar peak might be past us, but a dollar downtrend may not be there yet
ING Groep analysts
Strategists at MUFG said that a weaker dollar was now “justified”, while adding that the scale of the move clearly reflects to some degree the “pain trade” seen earlier in the week when investors cut back on overly big bets on the dollar.
Instead, funds have been piling into the yen, up more than 5 per cent this week after hitting a three-decade low less than a month ago.
Currency strategist Lee Hardman likened the market’s positioning and the sell-off in the dollar to an elastic band stretched in one direction, “and when you let go, you get a bigger reaction the other way”.
Given the large scale of dollar bets that have accumulated this year, he sees the possibility of a further 2 per cent to 3 per cent move lower in the US currency before the end of the year.
That could take it down towards 130 against the yen from around 139 at the moment, while against the euro it could weaken to about 1.05 from present levels around 1.036.
But with a global recession looming, a war in Ukraine continuing and growing signs of a slowdown in China, it could be too soon to aggressively sell the dollar, which is often viewed as a haven in times of trouble.
“It’s inevitable that once the turn has come, there was going to be a sharp move to the downside, which is what’s playing out,” Mr Hardman said.
“Now, the risk is that the move will be overdone, as we’re still far from an end to the Fed tightening cycle at this point.”
Traders will be on the lookout for any further signs of a cooling US economy that could enable the Fed to ease back its tightening following a series of jumbo rises.
Four officials have backed a relaxation even as they stressed that monetary policy must stay tight.
A deeper dollar sell-off would require more confidence that inflation is falling back quickly and speculation that the Fed may need to start cutting rates because recession risks, Mr Hardman said.
But such a situation could, in turn, spark haven demand for the greenback, he added.
For technical chart watchers, the dollar could extend its recent losses all the way down to August lows, according to several momentum indicators.
A key support level, the 32.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement of the May 2021-September 2022 rally, is 1.3 per cent lower than current spot levels.
That could be as far as the retreat goes, if options are any guide.
Risk reversals, a barometer of market positioning and sentiment, have retreated to the least bullish sentiment for the greenback since May, yet show that investors are not convinced of a huge sell-off.
“Risks are that the positioning squeeze could continue,” said Alex Jekov, a Group-of-10 currency strategist at BNP Paribas.
“But it’s tough to argue that this necessarily will elicit a huge turn in the dollar in the medium term given that the CPI data is one print and we haven’t changed our terminal rate forecast, which ultimately is key for the dollar.”
more from Janine di Giovanni
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Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
STAY%2C%20DAUGHTER
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The biog
Favourite car: Ferrari
Likes the colour: Black
Best movie: Avatar
Academic qualifications: Bachelor’s degree in media production from the Higher Colleges of Technology and diploma in production from the New York Film Academy
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
The full list of 2020 Brit Award nominees (winners in bold):
British group
Coldplay
Foals
Bring me the Horizon
D-Block Europe
Bastille
British Female
Mabel
Freya Ridings
FKA Twigs
Charli xcx
Mahalia
British male
Harry Styles
Lewis Capaldi
Dave
Michael Kiwanuka
Stormzy
Best new artist
Aitch
Lewis Capaldi
Dave
Mabel
Sam Fender
Best song
Ed Sheeran and Justin Bieber - I Don’t Care
Mabel - Don’t Call Me Up
Calvin Harrison and Rag’n’Bone Man - Giant
Dave - Location
Mark Ronson feat. Miley Cyrus - Nothing Breaks Like A Heart
AJ Tracey - Ladbroke Grove
Lewis Capaldi - Someone you Loved
Tom Walker - Just You and I
Sam Smith and Normani - Dancing with a Stranger
Stormzy - Vossi Bop
International female
Ariana Grande
Billie Eilish
Camila Cabello
Lana Del Rey
Lizzo
International male
Bruce Springsteen
Burna Boy
Tyler, The Creator
Dermot Kennedy
Post Malone
Best album
Stormzy - Heavy is the Head
Michael Kiwanuka - Kiwanuka
Lewis Capaldi - Divinely Uninspired to a Hellish Extent
Dave - Psychodrama
Harry Styles - Fine Line
Rising star
Celeste
Joy Crookes
beabadoobee
RESULTS
4pm: Al Bastakiya Listed US$250,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Yulong Warrior, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer)
4.35pm: Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 $200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Jordan Sport, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass
5.10pm: Nad Al Sheba Conditions $200,000 (Turf) 1,200m
Winner: Jungle Cat, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar Group 3 $200,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Kimbear, Patrick Dobbs, Doug Watson
6.20pm: Jebel Hatta Group 1 $300,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner: Blair House, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 $400,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: North America, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
7.30pm: Dubai City of Gold Group 2 $250,000 (T) 2,410m
Winner: Hawkbill, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Teams
India (playing XI): Virat Kohli (c), Ajinkya Rahane, Rohit Sharma, Mayank Agarwal, Cheteshwar Pujara, Hanuma Vihari, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Wriddhiman Saha (wk), Ishant Sharma, Mohammed Shami
South Africa (squad): Faf du Plessis (c), Temba Bavuma, Theunis de Bruyn, Quinton de Kock, Dean Elgar, Zubayr Hamza, Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Senuran Muthusamy, Lungi Ngidi, Anrich Nortje, Vernon Philander, Dane Piedt, Kagiso Rabada, Rudi Second
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BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
How tumultuous protests grew
- A fuel tax protest by French drivers appealed to wider anti-government sentiment
- Unlike previous French demonstrations there was no trade union or organised movement involved
- Demonstrators responded to online petitions and flooded squares to block traffic
- At its height there were almost 300,000 on the streets in support
- Named after the high visibility jackets that drivers must keep in cars
- Clashes soon turned violent as thousands fought with police at cordons
- An estimated two dozen people lost eyes and many others were admitted to hospital
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Explainer: Tanween Design Programme
Non-profit arts studio Tashkeel launched this annual initiative with the intention of supporting budding designers in the UAE. This year, three talents were chosen from hundreds of applicants to be a part of the sixth creative development programme. These are architect Abdulla Al Mulla, interior designer Lana El Samman and graphic designer Yara Habib.
The trio have been guided by experts from the industry over the course of nine months, as they developed their own products that merge their unique styles with traditional elements of Emirati design. This includes laboratory sessions, experimental and collaborative practice, investigation of new business models and evaluation.
It is led by British contemporary design project specialist Helen Voce and mentor Kevin Badni, and offers participants access to experts from across the world, including the likes of UK designer Gareth Neal and multidisciplinary designer and entrepreneur, Sheikh Salem Al Qassimi.
The final pieces are being revealed in a worldwide limited-edition release on the first day of Downtown Designs at Dubai Design Week 2019. Tashkeel will be at stand E31 at the exhibition.
Lisa Ball-Lechgar, deputy director of Tashkeel, said: “The diversity and calibre of the applicants this year … is reflective of the dynamic change that the UAE art and design industry is witnessing, with young creators resolute in making their bold design ideas a reality.”
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Company profile
Name: Tharb
Started: December 2016
Founder: Eisa Alsubousi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: Luxury leather goods
Initial investment: Dh150,000 from personal savings
Titanium Escrow profile
Started: December 2016
Founder: Ibrahim Kamalmaz
Based: UAE
Sector: Finance / legal
Size: 3 employees, pre-revenue
Stage: Early stage
Investors: Founder's friends and Family
'Moonshot'
Director: Chris Winterbauer
Stars: Lana Condor and Cole Sprouse
Rating: 3/5
EPL's youngest
- Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal)
15 years, 181 days old
- Max Dowman (Arsenal)
15 years, 235 days old
- Jeremy Monga (Leicester)
15 years, 271 days old
- Harvey Elliott (Fulham)
16 years, 30 days old
- Matthew Briggs (Fulham)
16 years, 68 days old
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
