The UK has turned into a global laughing stock, as the country's politicians behave as though they are running one of those banana republics they used to scorn.
In August, Christopher Dembik, Saxo Bank’s head of macro analysis, said the UK was “looking like an emerging market country” and all it needed was a currency crisis to seal the deal.
Within weeks, former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s disastrous mini-budget had not only sunk the pound, but also his ministerial career and that of Prime Minister Liz Truss, making her the shortest ever incumbent at only 44 days.
In the past four months, the UK has had four chancellors and three home secretaries.
Rishi Sunak will become the UK’s third prime minister in less than two months after rival Penny Mordaunt withdrew from the contest on Monday, a day after Boris Johnson also pulled out.
_____________
Watch: Liz Truss resigns
The International Monetary Fund, EU and US President Joe Biden have poured scorn on the UK, but they should resist the temptation to gloat.
While the UK has made serious mistakes, it is at the mercy of economic and political problems that threaten many other countries — and it could be their turn next.
Political instability, trade disruptions, an energy crisis and rocketing inflation are rattling the UK, but the backlash has been overdone, says Ian Lance, co-fund manager of Temple Bar Investment Trust.
“The doom-mongering has reached levels rarely seen before, but the reality is not nearly as scary. The UK has the second-lowest ratio of debt to GDP [gross domestic product] and headline inflation is below the eurozone average.”
The UK’s debt is 88 per cent of GDP, according to the IMF. In Canada, the debt-to-GDP ratio is 102 per cent, rising to 113 per cent in France, 126 per cent in the US, 151 per cent in Italy and 262 per cent in Japan.
In September, UK inflation rose to 10.1 per cent, but it is at 10.9 per cent across the EU.
The UK, the US, Europe and Japan have all spent the past 12 or so years carrying out a gigantic economic experiment, “which appears to have failed”, says Mr Lance.
“Interest rates have been kept at artificially low levels by central banks, who also printed money, stoking up bubbles in equities, bonds and housing.”
They doubled down by running massive fiscal deficits during the Covid-19 pandemic, which, combined with post-lockdown supply shortages, has driven inflation to today’s 40-year high, he says.
Central bankers are belatedly tightening, popping all the asset bubbles they had created, Mr Lance says. “Bond yields are now going up everywhere and equity markets are coming down.”
Mr Kwarteng’s mistake was to announce £43 billion ($48.9bn) of unfunded tax cuts on top of a £150bn energy support package at a time when markets were already nervous.
_________________
Cost of living crisis in the UK — in pictures
Others are keeping their heads down but the bond vigilantes may come for them soon enough.
Europe remains exposed to the war in Ukraine and an energy shock, while the euro is vulnerable.
The European Central Bank will be forced to raise interest rates aggressively to curb inflation, even though “the economic outlook is dreadful and a recession looms”, warns Jan von Gerich, chief analyst of fixed income at Nordea Markets.
Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial, also expects further tightening, which could put pressure on vulnerable eurozone members such as debt-ridden Italy.
“This could be a major risk factor for Italian assets as the country could fall into a recession,” Mr Valecha says. “This could impact government revenues even further, spiking its borrowing costs.”
Italy also faces huge political uncertainty after the election of far-right leader Giorgia Meloni and her coalition allies, he says.
Reflecting this risk, yields on Italian 10-year bonds are now 4.852 per cent, almost double that of Germany’s 2.474 per cent. This is notably higher than the 10-year UK gilt yield, which stands at 3.99 per cent.
Trouble is also brewing in Japan, whose “monetary policy is now a major risk factor for global markets”, Mr Valecha says.
The yen is “depreciating at an unprecedented pace”, having fallen 31.13 per cent against the US dollar so far this year. Even the pound has “only” fallen 21.34 per cent this year.
Japan is the only country in the world with a dovish monetary policy, as it battles to escape its long-running deflationary spiral, Mr Valecha says.
“Things are now getting dicey as yen depreciation is raising the price of imported goods and hitting the pockets of its senior citizens.”
If the Bank of Japan reverses policy, global yields could rise sharply since it could be forced to sell US Treasuries to defend the yen.
“That could be a major catastrophe for global risk assets since it is the last major buyer of US Treasury bonds,” Mr Valecha says.
China is also “in deep trouble” due to global central bank tightening and its zero-Covid policy, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index.
“It even decided to postpone, without giving a reason, the release of its third-quarter growth and industrial production figures. This does not look good and investors fear the world’s second-largest economy may have performed even poorer than expected.”
The US is protected by the double safety net of the world's reserve currency and energy self-sufficiency, but that has not stopped the S&P 500 from falling into bear market territory.
Are we approaching an important inflection point, the point where systemic central banks, like it or not, are forced to intervene to head off disaster? Markets seem to think so.
Jeremy Batstone-Carr,
European strategist at Raymond James Investment Services
The US Federal Reserve is aggravating the world's problems by increasing interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet by $95bn a month through quantitative tightening.
Economist Mohamed El Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, has warned the Fed will “probably break something” as it scrambles to tame sky-high inflation.
Liquidity is the “lifeblood” of the US bond market but it has dried up to levels not seen even during the Covid-19 pandemic turmoil in March 2020, warns Jeremy Batstone-Carr, European strategist at Raymond James Investment Services.
This has driven up the dollar, hit global share and bond prices, and now threatens to become a self-reinforcing spiral.
The fiscal medicine could be more dangerous than the inflationary disease, as it risks triggering a “liquidity crunch”, Mr Batstone-Carr says.
The Fed may soon have to “row back on its hawkish policy”, he says.
“Are we approaching an important inflection point, the point where systemic central banks, like it or not, are forced to intervene to head off disaster? Markets seem to think so.”
This week’s UK Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is battling to convince those same markets that his country’s debt and deficit are under control, warning that tax and spending measures could prove “eye-watering”.
Others also face tough decisions unless central bankers ease up on quantitative tightening, but this could also be an opportunity for brave investors, Mr Lance says.
“The best periods of investment performance come in the aftermath of uncertainty similar to that of now.”
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League final:
Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool
Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine
When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More on Quran memorisation:
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Manchester City 4
Otamendi (52) Sterling (59) Stones (67) Brahim Diaz (81)
Real Madrid 1
Oscar (90)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
HUNGARIAN GRAND PRIX RESULT
1. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 1:39:46.713
2. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 00:00.908
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes-GP 00:12.462
4. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes-GP 00:12.885
5. Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing 00:13.276
6. Fernando Alonso, McLaren 01:11.223
7. Carlos Sainz Jr, Toro Rosso 1 lap
8. Sergio Perez, Force India 1 lap
9. Esteban Ocon, Force India 1 lap
10. Stoffel Vandoorne, McLaren 1 lap
11. Daniil Kvyat, Toro Rosso 1 lap
12. Jolyon Palmer, Renault 1 lap
13. Kevin Magnussen, Haas 1 lap
14. Lance Stroll, Williams 1 lap
15. Pascal Wehrlein, Sauber 2 laps
16. Marcus Ericsson, Sauber 2 laps
17r. Nico Huelkenberg, Renault 3 laps
r. Paul Di Resta, Williams 10 laps
r. Romain Grosjean, Haas 50 laps
r. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull Racing 70 laps
If you go
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Seattle from Dh5,555 return, including taxes.
The car
Hertz offers compact car rental from about $300 (Dh1,100) per week, including taxes. Emirates Skywards members can earn points on their car hire through Hertz.
The national park
Entry to Mount Rainier National Park costs $30 for one vehicle and passengers for up to seven days. Accommodation can be booked through mtrainierguestservices.com. Prices vary according to season. Rooms at the Holiday Inn Yakima cost from $125 per night, excluding breakfast.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre, twin-turbo V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 582bhp
Torque: 730Nm
Price: Dh649,000
On sale: now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
Fatherland
Kele Okereke
(BMG)
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Match info
UAE v Bolivia, Friday, 6.25pm, Maktoum bin Rashid Stadium, Dubai
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Healthcare spending to double to $2.2 trillion rupees
Launched a 641billion-rupee federal health scheme
Allotted 200 billion rupees for the recapitalisation of state-run banks
Around 1.75 trillion rupees allotted for privatisation and stake sales in state-owned assets
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UAE - India ties
The UAE is India’s third-largest trade partner after the US and China
Annual bilateral trade between India and the UAE has crossed US$ 60 billion
The UAE is the fourth-largest exporter of crude oil for India
Indians comprise the largest community with 3.3 million residents in the UAE
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi first visited the UAE in August 2015
His visit on August 23-24 will be the third in four years
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, visited India in February 2016
Sheikh Mohamed was the chief guest at India’s Republic Day celebrations in January 2017
Modi will visit Bahrain on August 24-25
RESULTS
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Best Foreign Language Film nominees
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
The bio
Who inspires you?
I am in awe of the remarkable women in the Arab region, both big and small, pushing boundaries and becoming role models for generations. Emily Nasrallah was a writer, journalist, teacher and women’s rights activist
How do you relax?
Yoga relaxes me and helps me relieve tension, especially now when we’re practically chained to laptops and desks. I enjoy learning more about music and the history of famous music bands and genres.
What is favourite book?
The Perks of Being a Wallflower - I think I've read it more than 7 times
What is your favourite Arabic film?
Hala2 Lawen (Translation: Where Do We Go Now?) by Nadine Labaki
What is favourite English film?
Mamma Mia
Best piece of advice to someone looking for a career at Google?
If you’re interested in a career at Google, deep dive into the different career paths and pinpoint the space you want to join. When you know your space, you’re likely to identify the skills you need to develop.
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
Teaching your child to save
Pre-school (three - five years)
You can’t yet talk about investing or borrowing, but introduce a “classic” money bank and start putting gifts and allowances away. When the child wants a specific toy, have them save for it and help them track their progress.
Early childhood (six - eight years)
Replace the money bank with three jars labelled ‘saving’, ‘spending’ and ‘sharing’. Have the child divide their allowance into the three jars each week and explain their choices in splitting their pocket money. A guide could be 25 per cent saving, 50 per cent spending, 25 per cent for charity and gift-giving.
Middle childhood (nine - 11 years)
Open a bank savings account and help your child establish a budget and set a savings goal. Introduce the notion of ‘paying yourself first’ by putting away savings as soon as your allowance is paid.
Young teens (12 - 14 years)
Change your child’s allowance from weekly to monthly and help them pinpoint long-range goals such as a trip, so they can start longer-term saving and find new ways to increase their saving.
Teenage (15 - 18 years)
Discuss mutual expectations about university costs and identify what they can help fund and set goals. Don’t pay for everything, so they can experience the pride of contributing.
Young adulthood (19 - 22 years)
Discuss post-graduation plans and future life goals, quantify expenses such as first apartment, work wardrobe, holidays and help them continue to save towards these goals.
* JP Morgan Private Bank
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
More on Quran memorisation:
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
SERIES INFO
Cricket World Cup League Two
Nepal, Oman, United States tri-series
Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu
Fixtures
Wednesday February 5, Oman v Nepal
Thursday, February 6, Oman v United States
Saturday, February 8, United States v Nepal
Sunday, February 9, Oman v Nepal
Tuesday, February 11, Oman v United States
Wednesday, February 12, United States v Nepal
Table
The top three sides advance to the 2022 World Cup Qualifier.
The bottom four sides are relegated to the 2022 World Cup playoff
1 United States 8 6 2 0 0 12 0.412
2 Scotland 8 4 3 0 1 9 0.139
3 Namibia 7 4 3 0 0 8 0.008
4 Oman 6 4 2 0 0 8 -0.139
5 UAE 7 3 3 0 1 7 -0.004
6 Nepal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 PNG 8 0 8 0 0 0 -0.458
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
If you go
Flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh with a stop in Yangon from Dh3,075, and Etihad flies from Abu Dhabi to Phnom Penh with its partner Bangkok Airlines from Dh2,763. These trips take about nine hours each and both include taxes. From there, a road transfer takes at least four hours; airlines including KC Airlines (www.kcairlines.com) offer quick connecting flights from Phnom Penh to Sihanoukville from about $100 (Dh367) return including taxes. Air Asia, Malindo Air and Malaysian Airlines fly direct from Kuala Lumpur to Sihanoukville from $54 each way. Next year, direct flights are due to launch between Bangkok and Sihanoukville, which will cut the journey time by a third.
The stay
Rooms at Alila Villas Koh Russey (www.alilahotels.com/ kohrussey) cost from $385 per night including taxes.