Indian residents in the UAE are expected to capitalise on favourable exchange rates to send money home after the rupee hit a record low against the US dollar this week.
Praveen Menon, a Dubai-based overseas manager for an Indian property developer, is one of them. He remits about 20 per cent to 25 per cent of his UAE salary every month to India, but plans to increase this amount.
“When the rate is attractive, I always remit bulk amounts from the UAE to finish an existing commitment in India such as a personal loan or a mortgage,” he says.
“However, it is best if Indians based overseas do not remit money to invest in a fixed deposit because its value gets eroded. I would recommend using the money for an investment or convert it into foreign currency, such as euros or dollars, in forex trade.”
The Indian rupee tumbled to a new low against the dollar on Monday after last Friday's US jobs report cemented bets that the Federal Reserve would continue its interest rate increase programme for the rest of the year to rein in high inflation.
The rupee was trading at about 82.30 at 2.20pm UAE time on Monday, having hit a low of 82.6825 earlier in the day.
The currency is also weakening on the back of concerns over oil prices, rising Treasury yields, corporate outflows and offshore demand for the greenback, Reuters reported.
Treasury yields and the dollar index rose on Friday and US equities plunged after the US jobs data that was considered robust enough to keep the Fed on its path to deliver another 75 basis points rate increase next month.
“The Indian rupee, as most G10 and emerging market currencies, remains under the heavy pressure of the relentless US dollar rally,” says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst with Swissquote Bank.
“What is driving the rupee to an all-time low is the broad-based appreciation in the US dollar, the hawkish Fed expectations that get fuelled by robust US jobs and strong inflation data, and the Fed’s determination to keep raising interest rates until inflation is on course to hit the 2 per cent policy target.”
Meanwhile, Mr Menon expects the rupee to depreciate further. He always remits money through an exchange house app as he receives a better rate digitally than the negotiated over-the-counter rate.
However, Kiran Viswam, an Indian data analyst at a UAE-based luxury retailer, has been trying to bring money to the Emirates from India to make a local investment.
Mr Viswam is worried that the volatile forex market and weak rupee will erode the amount further. Residents are at a disadvantage if they want to bring money to the UAE, he says.
“I stopped remitting money to India a few years ago since the interest rates offered by commercial banks there [are] quite low and high inflation erodes the value of the money we send,” Mr Viswam says.
“I prefer to invest in the UAE because of how currency fluctuations devalue the rupee and banks offer better interest rates here. A weak rupee is ideal if you take out a personal loan in India and pay it off using dirhams because you get more bang for your buck.”
Last week, the World Bank trimmed India’s growth forecast for this financial year by a full percentage point, as rising commodity prices and debt trouble hit economies in South Asia.
“Heading into the week, we expect the dollar index to remain firm … [The] US inflation report due on Thursday and reaffirmation of higher interest rates through Fed minutes and speeches by Fed officials are likely to keep the dollar index well supported,” HDFC economists wrote in a note.
“This implies that the rupee could remain under pressure in the near term. However, any sharp move in the pair is likely to be checked by the Reserve Bank of India.”
The US dollar should ease as the actual appreciation is toxic for the world economy and even for US companies themselves, says Ms Ozkardeskaya.
However, no one can say that the US dollar has hit a peak yet. In the mid-1980s, the dollar index was about 160, she says.
“Therefore, as long as the market remains in the hands of the Fed hawks, we may see the dollar continue strengthening, which could further weigh on the Indian rupee,” she says.
Two factors are driving down the Indian rupee: a slowdown in economic growth and the strength of the US dollar, says Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade.
“The path of least resistance is skewed to the downside,” he says.
The RBI is expected to be cautious this time around as it has already spent a substantial sum to defend the rupee, says Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial.
In the week through to September 30, India’s forex reserves declined to $532.66 billion, the lowest since July 2020. That is an almost 16 per cent drop from $633.6bn at the start of the year, according to the IFA Global Research Academy.
The decline in forex reserves has been quite steep during the past few months, but it is not alarming as they are still deemed adequate, Mr Valecha says.
However, the central bank will now turn a “bit judicious” in using foreign currency. This could result in the rupee staying under pressure in the near term, he says.
“India has reported four successive months of declines in its consumer price index, which will improve its real rates of return. Moreover, the markets are now expecting the terminal [interest] rate of the Fed to be at 4.5 per cent by March 2023, which could be a relief for emerging market currencies,” Mr Valecha says.
“Markets are expecting a Fed pivot after that. In the near term, the rupee could slide to 83.50 against the US dollar, where we could see some RBI intervention.”
Meanwhile, remittance houses in the UAE have recorded a surge in money transfers to India. Lulu Exchange experienced a steady increase in rupee remittances, both in count and volumes, in the past six months due to the currency’s continuous depreciation, according to a representative.
“For the past six months, INR is continuously depreciating against the US dollar and has today hit an all-time low of 82.68,” the Lulu Exchange representative says.
“However, in the past one month, we have witnessed a surge, recording double-digit growth figures. The current trend is likely to continue in the near future as rising crude oil prices, high trade deficit and depleting foreign exchange reserves may further extend the slide in INR.”
As the Indian festive season has started, rupee remittance counts and volumes are also expected to increase in the near term, according to Lulu Exchange estimates.
“Some of our customers are remitting bulk amounts,” the representative says.
“At the same time, others are awaiting a further fall in INR to get better rates for sending money home. We expect the INR remittance to increase further during Diwali.”
Many customers are remitting for foreign currency non-resident deposits and we are expecting a further depreciation in the rupee over the coming quarter
Hasan Fardan Al Fardan,
chief executive of Al Fardan Exchange
Al Fardan Exchange has recorded a surge in rupee remittances since the breach of USD/INR above 82 levels, with about 25 per cent growth in volumes since that date, says Hasan Fardan Al Fardan, chief executive of Al Fardan Exchange.
“Many customers are remitting for foreign currency non-resident deposits and we are expecting a further depreciation in the rupee over the coming quarter,” he says.
“The rupee, along with all emerging market currencies, are on a depreciating trend since the start of the last quarter, resulting from global pressures, increasing US interest rates, crude price, inflationary pressures and depleting USD reserves with RBI.”
Some residents are remitting in bulk but regular flows are continuing normally. Compared with the previous year, Al Fardan Exchange recorded double-digit growth in total rupee remittance volumes while high-volume transactions have grown by 24 per cent, Mr Al Fardan says.
Blue-collar workers constitute about 45 per cent of people who remit rupees at Al Fardan Exchange while white-collar professionals make up 40 per cent of the market, with high-net-worth individuals making up the remainder.
“All these segments are price sensitive, watch the market and remit only when they get best value,” he says.
“The upcoming festival of Diwali is expected to provide a further boost as this is the remitting period.”
____________
Watch: best apps for transferring money in the UAE
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Du Football Champions
The fourth season of du Football Champions was launched at Gitex on Wednesday alongside the Middle East’s first sports-tech scouting platform.“du Talents”, which enables aspiring footballers to upload their profiles and highlights reels and communicate directly with coaches, is designed to extend the reach of the programme, which has already attracted more than 21,500 players in its first three years.
The low down
Producers: Uniglobe Entertainment & Vision Films
Director: Namrata Singh Gujral
Cast: Rajkummar Rao, Nargis Fakhri, Bo Derek, Candy Clark
Rating: 2/5
Scoreline
Germany 2
Werner 9', Sane 19'
Netherlands 2
Promes 85', Van Dijk 90'
Saturday's results
Brighton 1-1 Leicester City
Everton 1-0 Cardiff City
Manchester United 0-0 Crystal Palace
Watford 0-3 Liverpool
West Ham United 0-4 Manchester City
What is type-1 diabetes
Type 1 diabetes is a genetic and unavoidable condition, rather than the lifestyle-related type 2 diabetes.
It occurs mostly in people under 40 and a result of the pancreas failing to produce enough insulin to regulate blood sugars.
Too much or too little blood sugar can result in an attack where sufferers lose consciousness in serious cases.
Being overweight or obese increases the chances of developing the more common type 2 diabetes.
Results:
2.15pm: Handicap (PA) Dh60,000 1,200m.
Winner: AZ Dhabyan, Adam McLean (jockey), Saleha Al Ghurair (trainer).
2.45pm: Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 1,200m.
Winner: Ashton Tourettes, Sam Hitchcott, Ibrahim Aseel.
3.15pm: Conditions (PA) Dh60,000 2,000m.
Winner: Hareer Al Reef, Gerald Avranche, Abdallah Al Hammadi.
3.45pm: Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 1,700m.
Winner: Kenz Al Reef, Gerald Avranche, Abdallah Al Hammadi.
4.15pm: Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Cup (TB) Dh 200,000 1,700m.
Winner: Mystique Moon, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson.
4.45pm: The Crown Prince Of Sharjah Cup Prestige (PA) Dh200,000 1,200m.
Winner: ES Ajeeb, Sam Hitchcott, Ibrahim Aseel.
Building boom turning to bust as Turkey's economy slows
Deep in a provincial region of northwestern Turkey, it looks like a mirage - hundreds of luxury houses built in neat rows, their pointed towers somewhere between French chateau and Disney castle.
Meant to provide luxurious accommodations for foreign buyers, the houses are however standing empty in what is anything but a fairytale for their investors.
The ambitious development has been hit by regional turmoil as well as the slump in the Turkish construction industry - a key sector - as the country's economy heads towards what could be a hard landing in an intensifying downturn.
After a long period of solid growth, Turkey's economy contracted 1.1 per cent in the third quarter, and many economists expect it will enter into recession this year.
The country has been hit by high inflation and a currency crisis in August. The lira lost 28 per cent of its value against the dollar in 2018 and markets are still unconvinced by the readiness of the government under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to tackle underlying economic issues.
The villas close to the town centre of Mudurnu in the Bolu region are intended to resemble European architecture and are part of the Sarot Group's Burj Al Babas project.
But the development of 732 villas and a shopping centre - which began in 2014 - is now in limbo as Sarot Group has sought bankruptcy protection.
It is one of hundreds of Turkish companies that have done so as they seek cover from creditors and to restructure their debts.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
LAST-16 FIXTURES
Sunday, January 20
3pm: Jordan v Vietnam at Al Maktoum Stadium, Dubai
6pm: Thailand v China at Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
9pm: Iran v Oman at Mohamed bin Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Monday, January 21
3pm: Japan v Saudi Arabia at Sharjah Stadium
6pm: Australia v Uzbekistan at Khalifa bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
9pm: UAE v Kyrgyzstan at Zayed Sports City Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Tuesday, January 22
5pm: South Korea v Bahrain at Rashid Stadium, Dubai
8pm: Qatar v Iraq at Al Nahyan Stadium, Abu Dhabi
2019 Asian Cup final
Japan v Qatar
Friday, 6pm
Zayed Sports City Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Super Bowl LIII schedule
What Super Bowl LIII
Who is playing New England Patriots v Los Angeles Rams
Where Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, United States
When Sunday (start time is 3.30am on Monday UAE time)
Meydan racecard:
6.30pm: Handicap | US$135,000 (Dirt) | 1,400 metres
7.05pm: Handicap | $135,000 (Turf) | 1,200m
7.40pm: Dubai Millennium Stakes | Group 3 | $200,000 (T) | 2,000m
8.15pm: UAE Oaks | Group 3 | $250,000 (D) | 1,900m
8.50pm: Zabeel Mile | Group 2 | $250,000 (T) | 1,600m
9.20pm: Handicap | $135,000 (T) | 1,600m
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Scotland's team:
15-Sean Maitland, 14-Darcy Graham, 13-Nick Grigg, 12-Sam Johnson, 11-Byron McGuigan, 10-Finn Russell, 9-Ali Price, 8-Magnus Bradbury, 7-Hamish Watson, 6-Sam Skinner, 5-Grant Gilchrist, 4-Ben Toolis, 3-Willem Nel, 2-Stuart McInally (captain), 1-Allan Dell
Replacements: 16-Fraser Brown, 17-Gordon Reid, 18-Simon Berghan, 19-Jonny Gray, 20-Josh Strauss, 21-Greig Laidlaw, 22-Adam Hastings, 23-Chris Harris
Scoreline:
Barcelona 2
Suarez 85', Messi 86'
Atletico Madrid 0
Red card: Diego Costa 28' (Atletico)
MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City, Tuesday, 11pm (UAE)
Matches can be watched on BeIN Sports
Brief scoreline:
Liverpool 2
Keita 5', Firmino 26'
Porto 0
Avengers: Endgame
Directors: Anthony Russo, Joe Russo
Starring: Robert Downey Jr, Chris Evans, Scarlett Johansson, Chris Hemsworth, Josh Brolin
4/5 stars
Price, base / as tested From Dh173,775 (base model)
Engine 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo, AWD
Power 249hp at 5,500rpm
Torque 365Nm at 1,300-4,500rpm
Gearbox Nine-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined 7.9L/100km
Brief scoreline
Switzerland 0
England 0
Result: England win 6-5 on penalties
Man of the Match: Trent Alexander-Arnold (England)
Retirement funds heavily invested in equities at a risky time
Pension funds in growing economies in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East have a sharply higher percentage of assets parked in stocks, just at a time when trade tensions threaten to derail markets.
Retirement money managers in 14 geographies now allocate 40 per cent of their assets to equities, an 8 percentage-point climb over the past five years, according to a Mercer survey released last week that canvassed government, corporate and mandatory pension funds with almost $5 trillion in assets under management. That compares with about 25 per cent for pension funds in Europe.
The escalating trade spat between the US and China has heightened fears that stocks are ripe for a downturn. With tensions mounting and outcomes driven more by politics than economics, the S&P 500 Index will be on course for a “full-scale bear market” without Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, Citigroup’s global macro strategy team said earlier this week.
The increased allocation to equities by growth-market pension funds has come at the expense of fixed-income investments, which declined 11 percentage points over the five years, according to the survey.
Hong Kong funds have the highest exposure to equities at 66 per cent, although that’s been relatively stable over the period. Japan’s equity allocation jumped 13 percentage points while South Korea’s increased 8 percentage points.
The money managers are also directing a higher portion of their funds to assets outside of their home countries. On average, foreign stocks now account for 49 per cent of respondents’ equity investments, 4 percentage points higher than five years ago, while foreign fixed-income exposure climbed 7 percentage points to 23 per cent. Funds in Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan are among those seeking greater diversification in stocks and fixed income.
• Bloomberg
How green is the expo nursery?
Some 400,000 shrubs and 13,000 trees in the on-site nursery
An additional 450,000 shrubs and 4,000 trees to be delivered in the months leading up to the expo
Ghaf, date palm, acacia arabica, acacia tortilis, vitex or sage, techoma and the salvadora are just some heat tolerant native plants in the nursery
Approximately 340 species of shrubs and trees selected for diverse landscape
The nursery team works exclusively with organic fertilisers and pesticides
All shrubs and trees supplied by Dubai Municipality
Most sourced from farms, nurseries across the country
Plants and trees are re-potted when they arrive at nursery to give them room to grow
Some mature trees are in open areas or planted within the expo site
Green waste is recycled as compost
Treated sewage effluent supplied by Dubai Municipality is used to meet the majority of the nursery’s irrigation needs
Construction workforce peaked at 40,000 workers
About 65,000 people have signed up to volunteer
Main themes of expo is ‘Connecting Minds, Creating the Future’ and three subthemes of opportunity, mobility and sustainability.
Expo 2020 Dubai to open in October 2020 and run for six months
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