The US dollar may have kicked off October on a slightly weaker note but the ensuing reversal following a relief rally has been strong.
Since the start of October, the US Dollar Index, a measure of the greenback against a weighted basket of major currencies, was up 1 per cent at the time of writing and approaching 114 levels.
After retesting parity levels, EUR/USD is down more than 1 per cent in October, while the British pound has also dropped 1 per cent lower after teasing 1.15 levels at the start of the month.
US equity markets pared most of their gains on the month and were trading flat at the time of writing. After the large sell-off in risky assets during the third quarter, the brief relief rally through to the end of September and early October was exactly that — a brief bounce after an aggressive sell-off.
What we have seen since is a reversion to the trend as the underlying themes have not changed — a hawkish US Federal Reserve in the face of inflation running above targets.
The most recent US non-farm payrolls report perhaps added more fuel to the fire. The report came in much hotter than expected with 263,000 jobs added in September.
While the reading was slightly lower than the 315,000 new jobs in August, it came in stronger than market expectations.
More critically, the overall unemployment rate dropped to a 50-year low of 3.5 per cent, much stronger than what markets expected at 3.7 per cent.
The report has shown that the US jobs market continues to fire on all cylinders, despite an environment of increasing rates. Judging by the reaction of market, taper expectations or a Fed pivot have been ruled out.
____________
Watch: US Fed chief warns of 'pain' in reducing inflation
While second-tier supplementary US data, such as purchasing manager indexes, business surveys and housing data point to a slowing US economy, key data metrics such as inflation, jobs and gross domestic product all remain more robust than the Fed would hope.
Inflation is four times stronger than the target, employment remains robust and growth is stubbornly resilient.
At this rate, it is inconceivable that the Fed will revert from its goals stated during its previous meeting (a 75 basis point increase in November, followed by another 50bps increase in December) and the markets are fully pricing this in. Expect the US dollar to remain king.
The fireworks are set to continue throughout October, with volatility expected to peak this month. The economic calendar is filled with data points, which will drive this volatility.
The release of producer prices is expected later today and this is followed by the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (due at 10pm Dubai time), which will give us a deeper view on the hawkishness of the Fed.
But perhaps the deal-breaker is Thursday’s all-important US inflation report (due at 4.30pm Dubai time). While energy prices may have fallen last month, lagging housing data will keep the reading elevated.
Markets are currently expecting overall consumer price inflation (CPI) to come in at 8.1 per cent, year on year, (previously 8.3 per cent), while it is expected to be 0.2 per cent, month on month (versus a previous reading of 0.1 per cent).
The core reading, stripped of energy and food prices, is expected to come in at 6.5 per cent year on year (versus a previous reading of 6.3 per cent), while the month-on-month Core CPI reading is expected at 0.5 per cent (versus a previous reading of 0.6 per cent).
Readings in line with these expectations or a hint of these will continue the dollar's upward moves.
It is also the start of earnings season, with several key banks announcing their results this week, followed by Big Tech companies over the next two weeks.
Previous results will not be as scrutinised as forward guidance and I am interested to see how downbeat the future outlook will be.
Overall, expect equities to remain volatile, with a bearish bias in the weeks ahead.
Cost-of-living crisis in the UK — in pictures
Looking further ahead, volatility in October is expected to continue through to November.
The next Fed meeting will be held on November 1 and November 2. At the time of writing, markets were pricing another 75bps rate increase with 81 per cent certainty, taking the overall Federal funds rate to a band of 3.75 per cent to 4 per cent.
The US midterm elections are also set to take place on November 8. Currently, the Republican party has a more than 80 per cent chance of seizing a majority in the House of Representatives, while the battle for the Senate is not so straightforward.
Expect volatility to be rife through the final months of 2022 — remain conscious that the underlying themes driving dollar strength still remain. The interest rate differential play will continue to result in the dollar being well bought heading through the fourth quarter.
Gaurav Kashyap is risk manager at Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers
Essentials
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Delhi from about Dh950 return including taxes.
The hotels
Double rooms at Tijara Fort-Palace cost from 6,670 rupees (Dh377), including breakfast.
Doubles at Fort Bishangarh cost from 29,030 rupees (Dh1,641), including breakfast. Doubles at Narendra Bhawan cost from 15,360 rupees (Dh869). Doubles at Chanoud Garh cost from 19,840 rupees (Dh1,122), full board. Doubles at Fort Begu cost from 10,000 rupees (Dh565), including breakfast.
The tours
Amar Grover travelled with Wild Frontiers. A tailor-made, nine-day itinerary via New Delhi, with one night in Tijara and two nights in each of the remaining properties, including car/driver, costs from £1,445 (Dh6,968) per person.
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
TWISTERS
Director: Lee Isaac Chung
Starring: Glen Powell, Daisy Edgar-Jones, Anthony Ramos
Rating: 2.5/5
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Vidaamuyarchi
Director: Magizh Thirumeni
Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra
Rating: 4/5
2019 Asian Cup final
Japan v Qatar
Friday, 6pm
Zayed Sports City Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Farasan Boat: 128km Away from Anchorage
Director: Mowaffaq Alobaid
Stars: Abdulaziz Almadhi, Mohammed Al Akkasi, Ali Al Suhaibani
Rating: 4/5
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
'Nope'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jordan%20Peele%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Daniel%20Kaluuya%2C%20Keke%20Palmer%2C%20Brandon%20Perea%2C%20Steven%20Yeun%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs: 2018 Mercedes-AMG C63 S Cabriolet
Price, base: Dh429,090
Engine 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission Seven-speed automatic
Power 510hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 700Nm @ 1,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 9.2L / 100km
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
1.
|
United States
|
2.
|
China
|
3.
|
UAE
|
4.
|
Japan
|
5
|
Norway
|
6.
|
Canada
|
7.
|
Singapore
|
8.
|
Australia
|
9.
|
Saudi Arabia
|
10.
|
South Korea
|
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Small%20Things%20Like%20These
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Tim%20Mielants%3Cbr%3ECast%3A%20Cillian%20Murphy%2C%20Emily%20Watson%2C%20Eileen%20Walsh%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Name: Colm McLoughlin
Country: Galway, Ireland
Job: Executive vice chairman and chief executive of Dubai Duty Free
Favourite golf course: Dubai Creek Golf and Yacht Club
Favourite part of Dubai: Palm Jumeirah
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
8 UAE companies helping families reduce their carbon footprint
Greenheart Organic Farms
This Dubai company was one of the country’s first organic farms, set up in 2012, and it now delivers a wide array of fruits and vegetables grown regionally or in the UAE, as well as other grocery items, to both Dubai and Abu Dhabi doorsteps.
www.greenheartuae.com
Modibodi
Founded in Australia, Modibodi is now in the UAE with waste-free, reusable underwear that eliminates the litter created by a woman’s monthly cycle, which adds up to approximately 136kgs of sanitary waste over a lifetime.
www.modibodi.ae
The Good Karma Co
From brushes made of plant fibres to eco-friendly storage solutions, this company has planet-friendly alternatives to almost everything we need, including tin foil and toothbrushes.
www.instagram.com/thegoodkarmaco
Re:told
One Dubai boutique, Re:told, is taking second-hand garments and selling them on at a fraction of the price, helping to cut back on the hundreds of thousands of tonnes of clothes thrown into landfills each year.
www.shopretold.com
Lush
Lush provides products such as shampoo and conditioner as package-free bars with reusable tins to store.
www.mena.lush.com
Bubble Bro
Offering filtered, still and sparkling water on tap, Bubble Bro is attempting to ensure we don’t produce plastic or glass waste. Founded in 2017 by Adel Abu-Aysha, the company is on track to exceeding its target of saving one million bottles by the end of the year.
www.bubble-bro.com
Coethical
This company offers refillable, eco-friendly home cleaning and hygiene products that are all biodegradable, free of chemicals and certifiably not tested on animals.
www.instagram.com/coethical
Eggs & Soldiers
This bricks-and-mortar shop and e-store, founded by a Dubai mum-of-four, is the place to go for all manner of family products – from reusable cloth diapers to organic skincare and sustainable toys.
www.eggsnsoldiers.com
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
BIRD%20BOX%20BARCELONA
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20David%20and%20Alex%20Pastor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGeorgina%20Campbell%2C%20Mario%20Casas%2C%20Diego%20Calva%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%20four-cylinder%20turbo%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E680hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C020Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E9-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7.5L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEarly%202024%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh530%2C000%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE DETAILS
Kaala
Dir: Pa. Ranjith
Starring: Rajinikanth, Huma Qureshi, Easwari Rao, Nana Patekar
Rating: 1.5/5
'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
EXPATS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Lulu%20Wang%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nicole%20Kidman%2C%20Sarayu%20Blue%2C%20Ji-young%20Yoo%2C%20Brian%20Tee%2C%20Jack%20Huston%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
2252 - Dh50
6025 - Dh20
6027 - Dh100
6026 - Dh200
Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 80,000 (Turf) 1,400m. Winner: Al Ajeeb W’Rsan, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Jaci Wickham (trainer).
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 80,000 (T) 1,400m racing. Winner: Mujeeb, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel.
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 90,000 (T) 2,200m. Winner: Onward, Connor Beasley, Abdallah Al Hammadi.
6.30pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan Jewel Crown Prep Rated Conditions (PA) Dh 125,000 (T) 2,200m. Winner: Somoud, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roualle.
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 (T) 1,600m. Winner: AF Arrab, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 90,000 (T) 1,400m. Winner: Irish Freedom, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
UAE%20Warriors%20fight%20card
%3Cp%3EMain%20Event%0D%3A%20Catchweight%20165lb%0D%3Cbr%3EMartun%20Mezhulmyan%20(ARM)%20v%20Acoidan%20Duque%20(ESP)%0D%3Cbr%3ECo-Main%20Event%0D%3A%20Bantamweight%0D%3Cbr%3EFelipe%20Pereira%20(BRA)%20v%20Azamat%20Kerefov%20(RUS)%0D%3Cbr%3EMiddleweight%0D%3Cbr%3EMohamad%20Osseili%20(LEB)%20v%20Amir%20Fazli%20(IRN)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20161%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3EZhu%20Rong%20(CHI)%20vs.%20Felipe%20Maia%20(BRA)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20176%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3EHandesson%20Ferreira%20(BRA)%20vs.%20Ion%20Surdu%20(MDA)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20168%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3EArtur%20Zaynukov%20(RUS)%20v%20Sargis%20Vardanyan%20(ARM)%0D%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%0D%3Cbr%3EIlkhom%20Nazimov%20(UZB)%20v%20Khazar%20Rustamov%20(AZE)%0D%3Cbr%3EBantamweight%0D%3Cbr%3EJalal%20Al%20Daaja%20(JOR)%20v%20Mark%20Alcoba%20(PHI)%0D%3Cbr%3ELightweight%0D%3Cbr%3EJakhongir%20Jumaev%20(UZB)%20v%20Dylan%20Salvador%20(FRA)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20143%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3EHikaru%20Yoshino%20(JPN)%20v%20Djamal%20Rustem%20(TUR)%0D%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%0D%3Cbr%3EJavohir%20Imamov%20(UZB)%20v%20Ulan%20Tamgabaev%20(KAZ)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20120%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3ELarissa%20Carvalho%20(BRA)%20v%20Elin%20Oberg%20(SWE)%0D%3Cbr%3ELightweight%0D%3Cbr%3EHussein%20Salem%20(IRQ)%20v%20Arlan%20Faurillo%20(PHI)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A