This has been a volatile year for investors, but perhaps the biggest shock is that gold has failed to live up to its reputation as the world’s safe-haven asset in a storm.
Gold has acted as a store of value for more than 4,000 years, but in this turbulent year, it has fallen along with everything else.
This will have dismayed investors, who were advised to hold gold in their portfolios as protection against troubled times such as these.
The theory was that when riskier assets like shares fall, investors dive into the precious metal, driving its price up and offsetting losses.
But gold has not done its job this year. Today’s price of $1,706 an ounce is 4.83 per cent lower than it was a year ago.
While that is hardly a meltdown, it is not the type of performance to get the gold bugs buzzing.
“Gold isn’t working,” says David Henry, investment manager at Quilter Cheviot. “This year’s rampant inflation, geopolitical turmoil, recession fears and rock bottom sentiment should have been the ideal environment for gold.”
Yet, it hasn’t worked out that way, which he calls a “head scratcher”.
“A lot of the theoretical bull arguments for gold have materialised this year, yet the asset has gone nowhere,” Mr Henry says.
In the inflation-wracked 1970s, gold was the best-performing asset class, appreciating more than 10 times in dollar terms.
That’s when it won its reputation as an inflation hedge, it has regularly failed to live up to it, Mr Henry says.
When inflation picked up in the late 1980s and late 1990s, the gold price did not rise to match it.
It did put a shift in when markets crashed after the 2008 financial crisis, and again in July 2011, when the European single currency seemed on the brink of collapse.
Gold also peaked at the height of Covid-19 uncertainty, when the price hit $2,084 in August 2020.
But two years later, it is trading about 18 per cent lower, despite this year’s catalogue of economic troubles.
Investors typically buy gold when they are fearful, Mr Henry says.
“Gold price performance during every recession since 1970 has been positive, but it’s hardly a home run every time,” he says.
One reason is that a bar of gold may be “heavy, beautiful and reassuring”, but it generates zero income. That makes it less appealing today, when interest rates are at last rising after a dozen years, driving up the returns on rival safe havens cash and bonds.
“In this environment, the relative attractiveness of a lump of shiny metal, which does not pay you anything, diminishes,” Mr Henry says.
Gold is also less attractive than shares as they continue to pay dividends even when stock markets fall.
The best argument in favour of holding gold within a balanced portfolio is that it “dances to its own beat”, helping risk-conscious investors diversify their wealth, he says.
“Just bear in mind that there are no guarantees that gold will rise when stocks or bonds fall, just as we have seen this year.”
____________
Watch — Dubai's Gold Souq reopens
Another reason gold isn’t working this year is because the US dollar has usurped its role as the number one safe-haven asset.
Investors have piled into the world’s reserve currency to generate higher returns on offer as interest rates rise and gold will remain on a “shaky footing” while the US dollar is strong, says Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial.
“Until inflation peaks and the Fed eases off, it will continue to be the same old story for gold,” he says.
Investors dumped gold again last week after the US inflation rate in August remained stubbornly high at 8.3 per cent.
Although that was marginally lower than July’s 8.5 per cent, investors took this as a sign that the US Federal Reserve will increase its funds rate by 0.75 per cent this week, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
“The dollar rallied sharply as a result, which in turn weighed on gold,” he says.
Gold could have further to fall as a result and could now test last year’s low of $1,676, Mr Razaqzada says.
Shoppers in Dubai Gold Souq — in pictures
But people should not overdo the gloom on gold, says Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor.
“Although gold has struggled this year, the Nasdaq Composite is down by more than 20 per cent, so it has outperformed the equity market,” she says.
Gold could rally at some point, say, if the world slips into recession and inflation and interest rates come down, taking the US dollar with them.
As always, investors must take the longer-term view, Ms Scholar says. “Gold is still up 30 per cent over five years, so it may still make sense as part of a diversified portfolio.”
Gold has done a glittering job for some investors this year. It is priced in US dollars, so long-term investors in other currencies have benefited from the greenback's strength.
The US dollar is up 18.45 per cent against the euro over 12 months, 20.03 per cent against the British pound and an incredible 31.24 per cent against the Japanese yen (also previously considered a safe haven).
Although gold has struggled this year, the Nasdaq Composite is down by more than 20 per cent, so it has outperformed the equity market
Victoria Scholar,
head of investment at Interactive Investor
So for non-dollar investors, gold has shone. It is up 11.14 per cent measured in euros over the past 12 months, and 12.94 per cent in sterling terms.
Over five years, euro investors are up 53.19 per cent and pound investors 50.43 per cent. For them, gold still works.
Mr Henry says gold polarises opinion more than any other asset, with the exception of cryptocurrencies.
There are evangelists on both sides, he says, and urges investors to keep an open mind. “Cast your investment net as wide as possible, which may include gold.”
Most advisers still recommend having gold as part of your portfolio, but typically no more than five or 10 per cent.
The easiest way to gain exposure is through an exchange-traded fund investing in physical gold, such as SPDR Gold Shares and iShares Gold Trust.
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.5-litre%20V12%20and%20three%20electric%20motors%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C015hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C500Nm%20(estimate)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eight-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Early%202024%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh2%20million%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Read more about the coronavirus
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
FIGHT%20CARD
%3Cp%3EAnthony%20Joshua%20v%20Otto%20Wallin%2C%2012%20rounds%2C%20heavyweight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EDeontay%20Wilder%20v%20Joseph%20Parker%2C%2012%20rounds%2C%20heavyweight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EDmitry%20Bivol%20v%20Lyndon%20Arthur%2C%2012%20rounds%2C%20light%20heavyweight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EDaniel%20Dubois%20v%20Jarrell%20Miller%2C%2012%20rounds%2C%20heavyweight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EFilip%20Hrgovic%20v%20Mark%20de%20Mori%2C%2012%20rounds%2C%20heavyweight%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EArslanbek%20Makhmudov%20v%20Agit%20Kabayel%2C%2012%20rounds%2C%20heavyweight%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EFrank%20Sanchez%20v%20Junior%20Fa%2C%2012%20rounds%2C%20heavyweight%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJai%20Opetaia%20v%20Ellis%20Zorro%2C%2012%20rounds%2C%20cruiserweight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%204-cyl%20turbo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E190hp%20at%205%2C600rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E320Nm%20at%201%2C500-4%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10.9L%2F100km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh119%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More on animal trafficking
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203S%20Money%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20London%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Zhiznevsky%2C%20Eugene%20Dugaev%20and%20Andrei%20Dikouchine%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%245.6%20million%20raised%20in%20total%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Teaching in coronavirus times
Best Foreign Language Film nominees
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
THE BIO
Bio Box
Role Model: Sheikh Zayed, God bless his soul
Favorite book: Zayed Biography of the leader
Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet
Favorite food: seafood
Favorite place to travel: Lebanon
Favorite movie: Braveheart
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
Ultra processed foods
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Factfile on Garbine Muguruza:
Name: Garbine Muguruza (ESP)
World ranking: 15 (will rise to 5 on Monday)
Date of birth: October 8, 1993
Place of birth: Caracas, Venezuela
Place of residence: Geneva, Switzerland
Height: 6ft (1.82m)
Career singles titles: 4
Grand Slam titles: 2 (French Open 2016, Wimbledon 2017)
Career prize money: $13,928,719
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
BMW M8 Competition Coupe
Engine 4.4-litre twin-turbo V8
Power 625hp at 6,000rpm
Torque 750Nm from 1,800-5,800rpm
Gearbox Eight-speed paddleshift auto
Acceleration 0-100kph in 3.2 sec
Top speed 305kph
Fuel economy, combined 10.6L / 100km
Price from Dh700,000 (estimate)
On sale Jan/Feb 2020
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
How to get there
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
About%20My%20Father
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELaura%20Terruso%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERobert%20De%20Niro%2C%20Sebastian%20Maniscalco%2C%20Kim%20Cattrall%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
12%20restaurants%20opening%20at%20the%20hotel%20this%20month
%3Cp%3EAriana%E2%80%99s%20Persian%20Kitchen%3Cbr%3EDinner%20by%20Heston%20Blumenthal%3Cbr%3EEstiatorio%20Milos%3Cbr%3EHouse%20of%20Desserts%3Cbr%3EJaleo%20by%20Jose%20Andres%3Cbr%3ELa%20Mar%3Cbr%3ELing%20Ling%3Cbr%3ELittle%20Venice%20Cake%20Company%3Cbr%3EMalibu%2090265%3Cbr%3ENobu%20by%20the%20Beach%3Cbr%3EResonance%20by%20Heston%20Blumenthal%3Cbr%3EThe%20Royal%20Tearoom%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
The BIO:
He became the first Emirati to climb Mount Everest in 2011, from the south section in Nepal
He ascended Mount Everest the next year from the more treacherous north Tibetan side
By 2015, he had completed the Explorers Grand Slam
Last year, he conquered K2, the world’s second-highest mountain located on the Pakistan-Chinese border
He carries dried camel meat, dried dates and a wheat mixture for the final summit push
His new goal is to climb 14 peaks that are more than 8,000 metres above sea level
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Credit Score explained
What is a credit score?
In the UAE your credit score is a number generated by the Al Etihad Credit Bureau (AECB), which represents your credit worthiness – in other words, your risk of defaulting on any debt repayments. In this country, the number is between 300 and 900. A low score indicates a higher risk of default, while a high score indicates you are a lower risk.
Why is it important?
Financial institutions will use it to decide whether or not you are a credit risk. Those with better scores may also receive preferential interest rates or terms on products such as loans, credit cards and mortgages.
How is it calculated?
The AECB collects information on your payment behaviour from banks as well as utilitiy and telecoms providers.
How can I improve my score?
By paying your bills on time and not missing any repayments, particularly your loan, credit card and mortgage payments. It is also wise to limit the number of credit card and loan applications you make and to reduce your outstanding balances.
How do I know if my score is low or high?
By checking it. Visit one of AECB’s Customer Happiness Centres with an original and valid Emirates ID, passport copy and valid email address. Liv. customers can also access the score directly from the banking app.
How much does it cost?
A credit report costs Dh100 while a report with the score included costs Dh150. Those only wanting the credit score pay Dh60. VAT is payable on top.
Types of bank fraud
1) Phishing
Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
2) Smishing
The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
3) Vishing
The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
4) SIM swap
Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
5) Identity theft
Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
6) Prize scams
Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
Ruwais timeline
1971 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company established
1980 Ruwais Housing Complex built, located 10 kilometres away from industrial plants
1982 120,000 bpd capacity Ruwais refinery complex officially inaugurated by the founder of the UAE Sheikh Zayed
1984 Second phase of Ruwais Housing Complex built. Today the 7,000-unit complex houses some 24,000 people.
1985 The refinery is expanded with the commissioning of a 27,000 b/d hydro cracker complex
2009 Plans announced to build $1.2 billion fertilizer plant in Ruwais, producing urea
2010 Adnoc awards $10bn contracts for expansion of Ruwais refinery, to double capacity from 415,000 bpd
2014 Ruwais 261-outlet shopping mall opens
2014 Production starts at newly expanded Ruwais refinery, providing jet fuel and diesel and allowing the UAE to be self-sufficient for petrol supplies
2014 Etihad Rail begins transportation of sulphur from Shah and Habshan to Ruwais for export
2017 Aldar Academies to operate Adnoc’s schools including in Ruwais from September. Eight schools operate in total within the housing complex.
2018 Adnoc announces plans to invest $3.1 billion on upgrading its Ruwais refinery
2018 NMC Healthcare selected to manage operations of Ruwais Hospital
2018 Adnoc announces new downstream strategy at event in Abu Dhabi on May 13
Source: The National
Company Profile
Company name: Big Farm Brothers
Started: September 2020
Founders: Vishal Mahajan and Navneet Kaur
Based: Dubai Investment Park 1
Industry: food and agriculture
Initial investment: $205,000
Current staff: eight to 10
Future plan: to expand to other GCC markets
