After an abysmal first half of the year, the last thing investors expected was for US shares to shoot up by about 20 per cent over the summer, yet that is what happened.
A quick glance at the headlines would suggest investors had gone mad, backing stocks while the world stumbles from one calamity to the next.
War, heatwaves, drought, social unrest, rocketing prices and rising interest rates should have had investors ducking for cover, rather than falling over each other to buy shares.
Yet, the US S&P 500 somehow jumped 17.4 per cent from 3,666.77 on June 16 to 4,305.20 on August 16, leaving it just 10 per cent behind January’s opening of 4,796.56.
Investors even started buying into Bitcoin again, driving the price from $18,948 to $24,461, and amused themselves by toying with meme stocks.
Central banks are likely to have been watching the madness with concern, fearing that investors have missed the memo warning that the days of loose money are over.
This could force the US Federal Reserve and others to flex their muscles by hiking interest rates and reversing bond purchases at a faster rate than they originally planned.
On Friday, Fed chairman Jerome Powell made it clear in his speech at Jackson Hole that the US central bank will prioritise beating inflation over protecting growth.
“We remain a long way from the position where rates can be brought under control," Joshua Mahony, senior market analyst at online trading platform IG, says. "For investors, there is a risk that we could embark upon another period of weakness, with recent buoyancy fading into a distant memory."
What we witnessed is a classic bear market rally, Chaddy Kirbaj, vice director at Swissquote Bank, says.
Traders and investors rushed to buy the first-half dip, but may have overdone it.
Many investors developed unrealistic expectations.
“Wall Street is betting that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in 2023, but we think this is the wrong move,” Mr Kirbaj adds.
Even if the Fed cuts rates early next year, it is hardly grounds for optimism. More an admission that the economy is in an even worse state than investors realise.
Mr Kirbaj urges traders and investors to stop following market movements and focus on what really matters.
“By which I mean corporate earnings, the yield curve, interest rates and economic growth — not just stock price movements,” he says.
“Look at factors such as earnings per share, the price/earnings ratio and dividend yields, rather than market sentiments, which can shift in an instant.”
After the bull market run of the past dozen years, some investors continue to believe the fun can last forever, David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, says.
A feature of the bull run was that bad economic news was treated as good news for stock markets, because it meant even looser monetary policy.
Now, investors are banking on signs of slowing growth in the US, China, Europe and the UK will stay the Fed’s hand on rate rises, Mr Morrison says.
They have also seized on signs that inflation is slowing, falling from 9.1 per cent in June to 8.5 per cent in July, as a sign that it has peaked in the US.
“If it has, then equities and cryptocurrencies could have further to rally in the final quarter of 2022.”
Mr Morrison expects the Fed to raise rates from today’s range of 2.25 per cent to 2.5 per cent to as high as 3.75 per cent to 4 per cent by year end.
“It will then pause through the first quarter of 2023 before gradually reducing borrowing costs. I consider that a potentially bullish outcome.”
Traders and investors must stop following market movements and focus on what really matters
Chaddy Kirbaj,
vice director at Swissquote Bank
Stock markets have not totally disconnected from reality, though. The summer has delivered a second positive surprise, Colin Leggett, investment director at asset manager Collidr, says.
“Corporate earnings have been relatively robust over the past few months, despite soaring inflation, increased energy costs and falling consumer confidence.”
Investors have been looking past today’s problems, viewing them as short-term issues, which could disappear next year, but they may be making a mistake.
“Investors need to ask themselves whether the highest inflation in decades has really been priced in by markets,” Mr Leggett says.
It may not have fed through to companies’ reported results. We will only know in a few months what the impact is on current and future earnings, he adds.
“Seeing as markets have already bounced strongly, investors need to be aware that there are still a lot of risks ahead."
Market sentiment remains at the mercy of the Fed, but Mr Powell has failed to deliver clarity over monetary policy, Jeremy Batstone-Carr, European strategist at advisory company Raymond James, says.
“Markets have been left to interpret for themselves if the Fed is dovish or hawkish, at a time of significant uncertainty.”
The danger is that markets have misread the Fed’s intentions, expecting easing when they will get tightening.
If that has happened, autumn could be tough as the Fed tries to make up for its past misdemeanours.
“As energy prices threaten to spiral out of control, we are likely to see rate hiking continue, a move that will crush demand and deepen and extend a possible recession,” Mr Batstone-Carr says.
The Fed is struggling to reverse 20 years of excessively loose monetary policies, Mike Hollings, investment director at Shard Capital, says.
“It has fostered a culture of dependency as investors and economies have become reliant on constant monetary stimulus.”
As inflation takes off, central banks are caught in a trap of their own making. “Raising rates in an economy that is now so reliant on easy money risks causing either a market crash or a recession, or both,” Mr Hollings says.
The Fed must belatedly take steps to reassert its credibility, but “it is seemingly unable to stand up to the monster it has created”, he adds.
The outlook remains bearish, which means that defensive and inflation-resistant sectors are a go-to for investors, Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial, says.
“Generally, defensive industries deal with necessity goods whose demand is relatively less sensitive to price changes. The consumer staples, utilities and health care sectors tend to be non-cyclical, meaning they can produce stable profits through all phases of the economic cycle, with steady revenues and high dividends.”
Mr Valecha tips three exchange-traded funds that can help you survive the volatility.
His first pick is First Trust Consumer Staples AlphaDEX Fund, which invests primarily in the healthcare and food and beverage sectors.
“It has generated a return of 15.19 per cent in that last year and 13.75 per cent over three years, plus an annual yield of 1.2 per cent,” he says.
His second tip, iShares US Healthcare Providers ETF, has returned 5.8 per cent over one year and 19.62 per cent over three years, and currently yields 0.6 per cent.
Finally, Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Utilities ETF, has a yield of 2.15 per cent and has returned 15.9 per cent over one year, or 10.4 per cent over three years.
If this winter turns out to be far rougher than the summer, these defensive ETFs could help investors weather the storms ahead.
Profile
Company: Justmop.com
Date started: December 2015
Founders: Kerem Kuyucu and Cagatay Ozcan
Sector: Technology and home services
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai
Size: 55 employees and 100,000 cleaning requests a month
Funding: The company’s investors include Collective Spark, Faith Capital Holding, Oak Capital, VentureFriends, and 500 Startups.
Results
Women finals: 48kg - Urantsetseg Munkhbat (MGL) bt Distria Krasniqi (KOS); 52kg - Odette Guiffrida (ITA) bt Majlinda Kelmendi (KOS); 57kg - Nora Gjakova (KOS) bt Anastasiia Konkina (Rus)
Men’s finals: 60kg - Amiran Papinashvili (GEO) bt Francisco Garrigos (ESP); 66kg - Vazha Margvelashvili (Geo) bt Yerlan Serikzhanov (KAZ)
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Results
Stage 5:
1. Jonas Vingegaard (DEN) Team Jumbo-Visma 04:19:08
2. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 00:00:03
3. Adam Yates (GBR) Ineos Grenadiers
4. Sergio Higuita (COL) EF Education-Nippo 00:00:05
5. Joao Almeida (POR) Deceuninck-QuickStep 00:00:06
General Classification:
1. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 17:09:26
2. Adam Yates (GBR) Ineos Grenadiers 00:00:45
3. Joao Almeida (POR) Deceuninck-QuickStep 00:01:12
4. Chris Harper (AUS) Team Jumbo-Visma 00:01:54
5. Neilson Powless (USA) EF Education-Nippo 00:01:56
Visit Abu Dhabi culinary team's top Emirati restaurants in Abu Dhabi
Yadoo’s House Restaurant & Cafe
For the karak and Yoodo's house platter with includes eggs, balaleet, khamir and chebab bread.
Golden Dallah
For the cappuccino, luqaimat and aseeda.
Al Mrzab Restaurant
For the shrimp murabian and Kuwaiti options including Kuwaiti machboos with kebab and spicy sauce.
Al Derwaza
For the fish hubul, regag bread, biryani and special seafood soup.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Result
Qualifier: Islamabad United beat Karachi Kings by eight wickets
Fixtures
Tuesday, Lahore: Eliminator 1 - Peshawar Zalmi v Quetta Gladiators
Wednesday, Lahore: Eliminator 2 – Karachi Kings v Winner of Eliminator 1
Sunday, Karachi: Final – Islamabad United v Winner of Eliminator 2
CABINET%20OF%20CURIOSITIES%20EPISODE%201%3A%20LOT%2036
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Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
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What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
THE SPECS
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 258hp at 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,550-4,400rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.4L/100km
Price, base: from D215,000 (Dh230,000 as tested)
On sale: now
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
6.30pm Meydan Classic Trial US$100,000 (Turf) 1,400m
Winner Bella Fever, Dane O’Neill (jockey), Mike de Kock (trainer).
7.05pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner Woven, Harry Bentley, David Simcock.
7.40pm UAE 2000 Guineas Group Three $250,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner Fore Left, William Buick, Doug O’Neill.
8.15pm Dubai Sprint Listed Handicap $175,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner Rusumaat, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi.
8.50pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 Group Two $450,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner Benbatl, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor.
9.25pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner Art Du Val, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
10pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner Beyond Reason, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
The specs
Engine: 8.0-litre, quad-turbo 16-cylinder
Transmission: 7-speed auto
0-100kmh 2.3 seconds
0-200kmh 5.5 seconds
0-300kmh 11.6 seconds
Power: 1500hp
Torque: 1600Nm
Price: Dh13,400,000
On sale: now
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
UAE SQUAD
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Mohamed Usman (vice captain), Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Imran Haider, Tahir Mughal, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed, Fahad Nawaz, Abdul Shakoor, Sultan Ahmed, CP Rizwan
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Central%20Bank's%20push%20for%20a%20robust%20financial%20infrastructure
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3ECBDC%20real-value%20pilot%20held%20with%20three%20partner%20institutions%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EPreparing%20buy%20now%2C%20pay%20later%20regulations%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EPreparing%20for%20the%202023%20launch%20of%20the%20domestic%20card%20initiative%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EPhase%20one%20of%20the%20Financial%20Infrastructure%20Transformation%20(FiT)%20completed%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
It’ll be summer in the city as car show tries to move with the times
If 2008 was the year that rocked Detroit, 2019 will be when Motor City gives its annual car extravaganza a revamp that aims to move with the times.
A major change is that this week's North American International Auto Show will be the last to be held in January, after which the event will switch to June.
The new date, organisers said, will allow exhibitors to move vehicles and activities outside the Cobo Center's halls and into other city venues, unencumbered by cold January weather, exemplified this week by snow and ice.
In a market in which trends can easily be outpaced beyond one event, the need to do so was probably exacerbated by the decision of Germany's big three carmakers – BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi – to skip the auto show this year.
The show has long allowed car enthusiasts to sit behind the wheel of the latest models at the start of the calendar year but a more fluid car market in an online world has made sales less seasonal.
Similarly, everyday technology seems to be catching up on those whose job it is to get behind microphones and try and tempt the visiting public into making a purchase.
Although sparkly announcers clasp iPads and outline the technical gadgetry hidden beneath bonnets, people's obsession with their own smartphones often appeared to offer a more tempting distraction.
“It's maddening,” said one such worker at Nissan's stand.
The absence of some pizzazz, as well as top marques, was also noted by patrons.
“It looks like there are a few less cars this year,” one annual attendee said of this year's exhibitors.
“I can't help but think it's easier to stay at home than to brave the snow and come here.”
MATCH INFO
Azerbaijan 0
Wales 2 (Moore 10', Wilson 34')
Company Profile
Company name: Fine Diner
Started: March, 2020
Co-founders: Sami Elayan, Saed Elayan and Zaid Azzouka
Based: Dubai
Industry: Technology and food delivery
Initial investment: Dh75,000
Investor: Dtec Startupbootcamp
Future plan: Looking to raise $400,000
Total sales: Over 1,000 deliveries in three months
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Washmen Profile
Date Started: May 2015
Founders: Rami Shaar and Jad Halaoui
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Laundry
Employees: 170
Funding: about $8m
Funders: Addventure, B&Y Partners, Clara Ventures, Cedar Mundi Partners, Henkel Ventures
WHY%20AAYAN%20IS%20'PERFECT%20EXAMPLE'
%3Cp%3EDavid%20White%20might%20be%20new%20to%20the%20country%2C%20but%20he%20has%20clearly%20already%20built%20up%20an%20affinity%20with%20the%20place.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EAfter%20the%20UAE%20shocked%20Pakistan%20in%20the%20semi-final%20of%20the%20Under%2019%20Asia%20Cup%20last%20month%2C%20White%20was%20hugged%20on%20the%20field%20by%20Aayan%20Khan%2C%20the%20team%E2%80%99s%20captain.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EWhite%20suggests%20that%20was%20more%20a%20sign%20of%20Aayan%E2%80%99s%20amiability%20than%20anything%20else.%20But%20he%20believes%20the%20young%20all-rounder%2C%20who%20was%20part%20of%20the%20winning%20Gulf%20Giants%20team%20last%20year%2C%20is%20just%20the%20sort%20of%20player%20the%20country%20should%20be%20seeking%20to%20produce%20via%20the%20ILT20.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CHe%20is%20a%20delightful%20young%20man%2C%E2%80%9D%20White%20said.%20%E2%80%9CHe%20played%20in%20the%20competition%20last%20year%20at%2017%2C%20and%20look%20at%20his%20development%20from%20there%20till%20now%2C%20and%20where%20he%20is%20representing%20the%20UAE.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CHe%20was%20influential%20in%20the%20U19%20team%20which%20beat%20Pakistan.%20He%20is%20the%20perfect%20example%20of%20what%20we%20are%20all%20trying%20to%20achieve%20here.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CIt%20is%20about%20the%20development%20of%20players%20who%20are%20going%20to%20represent%20the%20UAE%20and%20go%20on%20to%20help%20make%20UAE%20a%20force%20in%20world%20cricket.%E2%80%9D%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
more from Janine di Giovanni
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A little about CVRL
Founded in 1985 by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, the Central Veterinary Research Laboratory (CVRL) is a government diagnostic centre that provides testing and research facilities to the UAE and neighbouring countries.
One of its main goals is to provide permanent treatment solutions for veterinary related diseases.
The taxidermy centre was established 12 years ago and is headed by Dr Ulrich Wernery.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Company%20Profile
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Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Naga
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