Live updates: follow the latest news on Russia-Ukraine
The global economy had barely recovered from the coronavirus pandemic when Russia's military offensive in Ukraine began.
The outlook is bleak as the price of fuel and food rockets, and shares, currencies and even safe-haven assets such as gold go haywire.
Oil prices rose to almost $133 a barrel on March 7, their highest level since 2008, after the US banned Russian energy imports, while Goldman Sachs predicts it could reach $175 by the end of the year if the conflict is not resolved.
US inflation has hit a 40-year high of 7.9 per cent, driven by rising gas, food and housing costs. Currencies are also volatile — and not just the Russian rouble.
The euro has fallen sharply, as the war is right on the EU’s doorstep. Countries heavily reliant on all imports, such as India, have also been affected.
The war is primarily a humanitarian and political disaster, but it is also a financial one, says Mike Hollings, chief investment officer at LeifBridge, part of Shard Capital. “Investors are shocked by events and seeking safe havens.”
Stock markets
Share prices have been swinging wildly and there is more volatility to come, says Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG.
“The war’s outcomes are still so hard to predict, as is its duration, that cutting exposure to equities seems to be the most prudent approach.”
Typically, economic data and individual company performance drive markets, Mr Beauchamp says. “Today it’s war headlines.”
But there winners as well as losers. Airline stocks and hotels are struggling as fuel costs soar and traveller confidence plummets, while defence stocks are flying.
Oil stocks are the major beneficiaries, with BP surging by more than 5 per cent and Total Energies by about 4 per cent after the US banned Russian oil. In New York, Chevron rose by 7.8 per cent and Exxon Mobil was up 4.8 per cent.
Europe looks vulnerable, and Mr Beauchamp says that “stagflationary risks are high and a temporary recession possible”.
Inevitably, Russian shares have been hit hardest of all, Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says. “With the sanction screws turning ever tighter and access to the depths of its war chest out of reach, Russia’s financial system looks in even greater peril.”
The Fitch ratings agency says that the country is close to defaulting on its debts and is expected to miss a series of bond payments. “Russia has now retreated further into junk status,” Ms Streeter says.
Investors should stay calm and resist the temptation to dump all their risky assets in a panic, Emma-Lou Montgomery, associate director at Fidelity International, says. “You will only be locking in recent losses and miss out on any recovery. As always, a diversified portfolio is key.”
Optimists should look beyond today's troubles, Chaddy Kirbaj, vice director at Swissquote Bank Dubai, says. “Consider targeting longer-term growth from industries such as artificial intelligence, cyber security and data management.”
Energy
If you really want to know how the war is going, look at the oil price, Mr Beauchamp says. Although crude prices have retreated to around $112 a barrel at time of writing, “they certainly don’t think the prevailing situation will improve any time soon”.
With supply constrained and demand increasing as the market wonders how to replace seven million barrels of Russian oil a day, the only way is up for energy prices, especially in Europe, Ms Streeter says.
“There is no magic wand to speed up the shift to renewables. It is going to be a hugely difficult and expensive transition.”
Rising oil prices will hit global growth by squeezing business and consumer spending, Mr Kirbaj says. "The world’s biggest oil importers will be hardest hit, including China, India, Japan and Germany.”
If this continues, the EU, India and Japan will falter, “leading to stagflation sooner rather than later”, he says.
By contrast, oil exporters in the Gulf, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, will experience a strong recovery in government revenue, he says.
Food prices
Oil is not the only commodity affected, as wheat prices have risen by about 50 per cent, Ms Streeter says.
Ukraine and Russia account for about 30 per cent of the world's traded wheat, and exports have ground to a halt.
This is set to make a trolley load of goods more expensive with the price of baked goods, beer and pasta in particular expected to rise
Susannah Streeter,
senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown
The Chicago Wheat index hit a record high of $13.63 a bushel amid volatile trading, up from less than $8 in mid-February.
Prices have cooled a little, but futures contracts trading in Chicago are still around $11 per bushel, a 14-year high, Ms Streeter says. “This is set to make a trolley load of goods more expensive with the price of baked goods … and pasta in particular expected to rise.”
Some producers may have hedged against this dramatic rise in prices for now, but the volatility is expected to linger, she says. “Our food bills are going up along with everything else.”
Physical metals, too, have surged on fears of shortages.
The London Metal Exchange was forced to suspend trading in nickel last Tuesday after reporting “unprecedented movements”, with prices more than doubling to $100,000 a tonne.
Russia is a leading global exporter of the metal, which is in demand as the electric vehicle revolution speeds up, Ms Streeter says. “Russia is the world’s leading exporter and palladium is an essential material for computer chip manufacturing.”
Currencies
In times of trouble, investors race to buy the world’s reserve currency and safe haven, the US dollar.
It has been the same this time, too.
This is bad news for anybody earning money in other currencies, who face a double inflation shock as commodities are all priced in US dollars, Mr Hollings says. “Energy and food prices are rising sharply in US dollar terms, while the currencies consumers buy them in are falling relative to the greenback.”
Currencies pegged to the dollar, such as the UAE dirham, enjoy some protection against inflationary pressures, he says.
Many people who raced to load up on dollar assets such as US Treasuries did so after dumping the euro.
It has been a bad year for the single currency, which fell below parity against the haven Swiss franc for the first time since January 2015.
The euro is down around 5 per cent against the dollar, although it has recovered slightly on expectations of tighter monetary policy from the European Central Bank, which plans to wind down bond purchases and increase interest rates to curb inflation in a surprisingly hawkish switch.
Currencies of the countries closest to the war have also been sold off, Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial, says. “Sweden could face repercussions and its currency faces near-term headwinds. Yet energy exporter Norway’s currency is rising as it benefits from higher oil prices.”
Oil importing countries such as India and Pakistan are suffering as oil prices rise, Mr Valecha says. “India imports more than 80 per cent of its oil and its import bill could top $100 billion this year. The Indian rupee has plunged to a record low of 77.02 against the dollar.”
Emerging market currencies are likely to remain under pressure as dollar strength increases the cost of servicing their debts, at the same time as they spend more on energy imports.
The British pound is a “risk-on currency” and has been hit by the war as investors switch into risk-off mode.
Gold
In these uncertain times, even safe haven gold is volatile. The price recently spiked 3.5 per cent to $2,068 an ounce, within touching distance of its $2,804 August 2020 record, but has since fallen back to $1,987 at the time of writing.
“This volatility isn’t going anywhere until Putin ends the invasion of Ukraine,” says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Think Markets.
Like every other asset class, the gold price will continue to be driven by headlines, he says. Investors should, therefore, resist the temptation to go all-in on gold.
The precious metal may be an inflation hedge but it does not pay any income, while bonds are volatile and cash is being eroded in real terms by inflation.
Today, your best defence is to diversify between asset classes and invest for the long-term.
The team
Photographer: Mateusz Stefanowski at Art Factory
Videographer: Jear Valasquez
Fashion director: Sarah Maisey
Make-up: Gulum Erzincan at Art Factory
Model: Randa at Art Factory Videographer’s assistant: Zanong Magat
Photographer’s assistant: Sophia Shlykova
With thanks to Jubail Mangrove Park, Jubail Island, Abu Dhabi
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
The specs: 2019 Lincoln MKC
Price, base / as tested: Dh169,995 / Dh192,045
Engine: Turbocharged, 2.0-litre, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power: 253hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 389Nm @ 2,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 10.7L / 100km
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German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
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Read more about the coronavirus
Yemen's Bahais and the charges they often face
The Baha'i faith was made known in Yemen in the 19th century, first introduced by an Iranian man named Ali Muhammad Al Shirazi, considered the Herald of the Baha'i faith in 1844.
The Baha'i faith has had a growing number of followers in recent years despite persecution in Yemen and Iran.
Today, some 2,000 Baha'is reside in Yemen, according to Insaf.
"The 24 defendants represented by the House of Justice, which has intelligence outfits from the uS and the UK working to carry out an espionage scheme in Yemen under the guise of religion.. aimed to impant and found the Bahai sect on Yemeni soil by bringing foreign Bahais from abroad and homing them in Yemen," the charge sheet said.
Baha'Ullah, the founder of the Bahai faith, was exiled by the Ottoman Empire in 1868 from Iran to what is now Israel. Now, the Bahai faith's highest governing body, known as the Universal House of Justice, is based in the Israeli city of Haifa, which the Bahais turn towards during prayer.
The Houthis cite this as collective "evidence" of Bahai "links" to Israel - which the Houthis consider their enemy.
The Sky Is Pink
Director: Shonali Bose
Cast: Priyanka Chopra Jonas, Farhan Akhtar, Zaira Wasim, Rohit Saraf
Three stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Schedule for Asia Cup
Sept 15: Bangladesh v Sri Lanka (Dubai)
Sept 16: Pakistan v Qualifier (Dubai)
Sept 17: Sri Lanka v Afghanistan (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 18: India v Qualifier (Dubai)
Sept 19: India v Pakistan (Dubai)
Sept 20: Bangladesh v Afghanistan (Abu Dhabi) Super Four
Sept 21: Group A Winner v Group B Runner-up (Dubai)
Sept 21: Group B Winner v Group A Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 23: Group A Winner v Group A Runner-up (Dubai)
Sept 23: Group B Winner v Group B Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 25: Group A Winner v Group B Winner (Dubai)
Sept 26: Group A Runner-up v Group B Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 28: Final (Dubai)
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
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Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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HER%20FIRST%20PALESTINIAN
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6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 (PA) | US$95,000 | (Dirt) 2,000m
7.05pm: Meydan Classic Listed (TB) ) | $175,000) | (Turf) 1,600m
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) ) | $135,000 ) | (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy Group 3 (TB) ) | $300,000) | (T) 2,810m
8.50pm: Curlin Handicap Listed (TB)) | $160,000) | (D) 2,000m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB)) | $175,000) | (T) 1,400m
10pm: Handicap (TB) ) | $135,000 ) | (T) 2,000m
The%20specs
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Autumn international scores
Saturday, November 24
Italy 3-66 New Zealand
Scotland 14-9 Argentina
England 37-18 Australia
The Africa Institute 101
Housed on the same site as the original Africa Hall, which first hosted an Arab-African Symposium in 1976, the newly renovated building will be home to a think tank and postgraduate studies hub (it will offer master’s and PhD programmes). The centre will focus on both the historical and contemporary links between Africa and the Gulf, and will serve as a meeting place for conferences, symposia, lectures, film screenings, plays, musical performances and more. In fact, today it is hosting a symposium – 5-plus-1: Rethinking Abstraction that will look at the six decades of Frank Bowling’s career, as well as those of his contemporaries that invested social, cultural and personal meaning into abstraction.
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 640hp
Torque: 760nm
On sale: 2026
Price: Not announced yet
'The Coddling of the American Mind: How Good Intentions and Bad Ideas are Setting up a Generation for Failure'
Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt, Penguin Randomhouse
Who is Ramon Tribulietx?
Born in Spain, Tribulietx took sole charge of Auckland in 2010 and has gone on to lead the club to 14 trophies, including seven successive Oceania Champions League crowns. Has been tipped for the vacant New Zealand national team job following Anthony Hudson's resignation last month. Had previously been considered for the role.
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
From Europe to the Middle East, economic success brings wealth - and lifestyle diseases
A rise in obesity figures and the need for more public spending is a familiar trend in the developing world as western lifestyles are adopted.
One in five deaths around the world is now caused by bad diet, with obesity the fastest growing global risk. A high body mass index is also the top cause of metabolic diseases relating to death and disability in Kuwait, Qatar and Oman – and second on the list in Bahrain.
In Britain, heart disease, lung cancer and Alzheimer’s remain among the leading causes of death, and people there are spending more time suffering from health problems.
The UK is expected to spend $421.4 billion on healthcare by 2040, up from $239.3 billion in 2014.
And development assistance for health is talking about the financial aid given to governments to support social, environmental development of developing countries.
Sri Lanka v England
First Test, at Galle
England won by 211
Second Test, at Kandy
England won by 57 runs
Third Test, at Colombo
From Nov 23-27
AIR
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Padmaavat
Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali
Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh
3.5/5
more from Janine di Giovanni
PETER%20PAN%20%26%20WENDY
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FROM%20THE%20ASHES
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ATP RANKINGS (NOVEMBER 4)
1. Rafael Nadal (ESP) 9,585 pts ( 1)
2. Novak Djokovic (SRB) 8,945 (-1)
3. Roger Federer (SUI) 6,190
4. Daniil Medvedev (RUS) 5,705
5. Dominic Thiem (AUT) 5,025
6. Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) 4,000 ( 1)
7. Alexander Zverev (GER) 2,945 (-1)
8. Matteo Berrettini (ITA) 2,670 ( 1)
9. Roberto Bautista (ESP) 2,540 ( 1)
10. Gaël Monfils (FRA) 2,530 ( 3)
11. David Goffin (BEL) 2,335 ( 3)
12. Fabio Fognini (ITA) 2,290
13. Kei Nishikori (JPN) 2,180 (-2)
14. Diego Schwartzman (ARG) 2,125 ( 1)
15. Denis Shapovalov (CAN) 2,050 ( 13)
16. Stan Wawrinka (SUI) 2,000
17. Karen Khachanov (RUS) 1,840 (-9)
18. Alex De Minaur (AUS) 1,775
19. John Isner (USA) 1,770 (-2)
20. Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) 1,747 ( 7)
'Top Gun: Maverick'
Rating: 4/5
Directed by: Joseph Kosinski
Starring: Tom Cruise, Val Kilmer, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Miles Teller, Glen Powell, Ed Harris
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
SCHEDULE
December 8: UAE v USA (Sharjah Cricket Stadium)
December 9: USA v Scotland (Sharjah Cricket Stadium)
December 11: UAE v Scotland (Sharjah Cricket Stadium)
December 12: UAE v USA (ICC Academy Oval 1)
December 14: USA v Scotland (ICC Academy Oval 1)
December 15: UAE v Scotland (ICC Academy Oval 1)
All matches start at 10am
