“Real inflation is everywhere,” said the chief executive of US investment bank Goldman Sachs during the release of the bank’s fourth-quarter results last week.
Compensation costs jumped 33 per cent in 2021, while they rose by only 8 per cent in the previous year. But it is not only wealthy bankers who are feeling the effects. It seems people around the globe are subject to rising price pressures on a daily basis, with official inflation figures for everyday goods hitting multi-decade highs.
US consumer prices recently increased at their fastest pace in about 40 years, with the headline rate hitting 7 per cent in December. Seven of the past nine releases have come in above analyst estimates. Even when stripping out the more volatile food and energy sectors, prices still registered their sharpest pick-up since February 1991.
This kind of surging consumer price data has also been reported in Canada, the UK, Germany and Japan, with booming demand and supply-chain bottlenecks continuing to persist into 2022.
The fragile nature of the just-in-time approach to global manufacturing has been laid bare and there will, no doubt, be much ongoing discussion to dig deeper into one of the principal issues coming out of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Omicron has continued to unsettle the recovery, although there is light at the end of the tunnel. But the rotation from goods spending to services spending will be crucial in relieving some of the stress in goods prices. This is because costs are currently being driven mainly by supply issues and not excess demand.
Although many economists believe these once-in-a-generation price rises will ease in time, they still see costs elevated over the course of this year. When we have been used to annual increases in cost of living at less than 1 per cent, the shock is real.
Markets have adjusted to this new reality by quickly realising that monetary policy tightening is inevitable in 2022.
The rapid catch-up by policymakers and, more particularly, the subsequent run-up in rates have some similarities to the first quarter of last year
Hussein Sayed,
chief market strategist, Exinity Group
The US Federal Reserve has shifted its former “transitory” stance on inflation in double-quick time and is willing to raise interest rates earlier and faster than previously thought. Traders have now priced in four 25 basis point rate increases for this year, starting in March.
The pace of bond market moves have been astounding. Last March, Fed policymakers were still saying it would be 2024 before they would start moving interest rates higher. In June, Fed officials advanced it to 2023 and, in September, they changed it to 2022 and indicated there would only be one rate increase.
The rapid catch-up by policymakers and, more particularly, the subsequent run-up in rates have some similarities to the first quarter of last year. Then followed a steady fall into the summer months.
Could we see this scene play out again if supply-chain disruptions ease and the Omicron wave subsides? Inflation expectations have been more stable recently, with China factory prices and a US factory activity expansion, for example, increasing at a slower pace than analysts expected.
However, with emergency liquidity currently being withdrawn, highly valued, expensive parts of the market are still exposed to broad, sharp sell-offs. Technology stocks are already being heavily sold, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index in correction territory since falling 13 per cent from its December high.
The current rotation towards value stocks is expected to continue in this environment, with volatility remaining elevated. This means active stock picking appears to be the name of the game in equity markets, with a focus on companies that can deliver dividends and buybacks.
But risks of a broader correction in equities in the first half of the year, as the policy punchbowl is finally withdrawn, loom large as investors protect capital gains from the previous bull run.
Hussein Sayed is the chief market strategist at Exinity Group
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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'Avengers: Infinity War'
Dir: The Russo Brothers
Starring: Chris Evans, Chris Pratt, Tom Holland, Robert Downey Junior, Scarlett Johansson, Elizabeth Olsen
Four stars
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
THE SPECS
BMW X7 xDrive 50i
Engine: 4.4-litre V8
Transmission: Eight-speed Steptronic transmission
Power: 462hp
Torque: 650Nm
Price: Dh600,000
Profile of RentSher
Started: October 2015 in India, November 2016 in UAE
Founders: Harsh Dhand; Vaibhav and Purvashi Doshi
Based: Bangalore, India and Dubai, UAE
Sector: Online rental marketplace
Size: 40 employees
Investment: $2 million
Green ambitions
- Trees: 1,500 to be planted, replacing 300 felled ones, with veteran oaks protected
- Lake: Brown's centrepiece to be cleaned of silt that makes it as shallow as 2.5cm
- Biodiversity: Bat cave to be added and habitats designed for kingfishers and little grebes
- Flood risk: Longer grass, deeper lake, restored ponds and absorbent paths all meant to siphon off water
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher: Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
'HIJRAH%3A%20IN%20THE%20FOOTSTEPS%20OF%20THE%20PROPHET'
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specS: 2018 Toyota Camry
Price: base / as tested: Dh91,000 / Dh114,000
Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 298hp @ 6,600rpm
Torque: 356Nm @ 4,700rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
Honeymoonish
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
More on animal trafficking
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Floward%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERiyadh%2C%20Saudi%20Arabia%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbdulaziz%20Al%20Loughani%20and%20Mohamed%20Al%20Arifi%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EE-commerce%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbout%20%24200%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAljazira%20Capital%2C%20Rainwater%20Partners%2C%20STV%20and%20Impact46%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C200%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
FROM%20THE%20ASHES
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GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Infobox
Western Region Asia Cup Qualifier, Al Amerat, Oman
The two finalists advance to the next stage of qualifying, in Malaysia in August
Results
UAE beat Iran by 10 wickets
Kuwait beat Saudi Arabia by eight wickets
Oman beat Bahrain by nine wickets
Qatar beat Maldives by 106 runs
Monday fixtures
UAE v Kuwait, Iran v Saudi Arabia, Oman v Qatar, Maldives v Bahrain
The specs: 2018 Mercedes-Benz E 300 Cabriolet
Price, base / as tested: Dh275,250 / Dh328,465
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder
Power: 245hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm @ 1,300rpm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.0L / 100km
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Results:
CSIL 2-star 145cm One Round with Jump-Off
1. Alice Debany Clero (USA) on Amareusa S 38.83 seconds
2. Anikka Sande (NOR) For Cash 2 39.09
3. Georgia Tame (GBR) Cash Up 39.42
4. Nadia Taryam (UAE) Askaria 3 39.63
5. Miriam Schneider (GER) Fidelius G 47.74
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill
Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples.
Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts.
Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Karwaan
Producer: Ronnie Screwvala
Director: Akarsh Khurana
Starring: Irrfan Khan, Dulquer Salmaan, Mithila Palkar
Rating: 4/5
