Gold, the precious metal that investors turn to as a hedge against inflation, will likely face two key headwinds of higher nominal interest rates and a potentially stronger dollar this year, according to the World Gold Council.
However, the negative effect from these two drivers may be offset by other supporting factors, such as persistent inflation, market volatility linked to Covid-19 and robust demand from other sectors such as central banks and jewellery, the industry body said in a 2022 market outlook report.
“Against this backdrop, gold’s performance during 2022 will ultimately be determined by which factors tip the scale. Yet, gold’s relevance as a risk hedge will be particularly relevant for investors this year,” the trade group said.
Gold’s relevance as a risk hedge will be particularly relevant for investors this year
World Gold Council
Gold prices declined more than 4 per cent in 2021 after rising 48 per cent over the previous two years as the global economic recovery reduced demand for the safe-haven metal, Reuters reported in December.
The safe-haven commodity traded between $1,676 and $1,959 an ounce last year, following its best annual performance in a decade in 2020, in which the metal touched an all-time high of $2,072.50.
Early in 2021, as newly developed Covid-19 vaccines were rolled out, investor optimism fuelled a reduction in portfolio hedges. This negatively impacted gold’s performance and resulted in outflows from gold exchange-traded funds, the Council said. Rising interest rates and a stronger US dollar also continued to create headwinds.
A stronger dollar makes bullion more expensive for buyers who hold other currencies.
However, uncertainty surrounding new variants, combined with increasing risks of persistently high inflation and a rebound in gold consumer demand, pushed gold forward, according to the WGC.
The US Federal Reserve is projected to hike interest rates about three times this year. Higher interest rates tend to dim the appeal of gold, which pays no interest.
“Gold has historically underperformed in the months leading up to a Fed tightening cycle, only to significantly outperform in the months following the first rate hike,” the WGC said.
However, not all central banks may move as quickly as the Fed. For example, the European Central Bank said it is “very unlikely” that interest rates will rise in 2022. Although the Bank of England increased interest rates in December, its policy committee indicated only modest future rises. The Reserve Bank of India also signalled that it will maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance.
While diverging monetary policies could result in a stronger dollar, steady or decreasing rates should support regional gold investment demand, the report said.
Gold has also historically performed well amid high inflation.
“In years when inflation was higher than 3 per cent, gold’s price increased 14 per cent on average. Further, in the long run, gold outpaced US inflation and moved closer in pace to money supply, which has significantly increased in recent years,” the WGC said.
Despite potential central bank rate hikes, nominal interest rates will remain low from a historical perspective and elevated inflation will keep real rates depressed as well, it added.
Low interest rates will, therefore, shift investment portfolios more towards risk-on assets and increase the need for a high-quality liquid asset such as gold, it said.
Meanwhile, market pullbacks are likely to continue in the face of new variants, as well as geopolitical tensions and buoyant equity valuations fuelled by an ultra-low-rate environment.
“In this context, gold can be a valuable risk management tool in an investor’s arsenal. Gold has a proven historical record of mitigating the negative impact of equity market pullbacks in periods of systemic risk,” the WGC said.
Gold can still receive positive support this year from key jewellery markets such as India, it added. However, further Chinese economic slowdown may limit the contribution from local gold jewellery demand.
“Central bank gold demand, which rebounded in 2021, may remain an important source of demand. There are good reasons why central banks favour gold as part of their foreign reserves which, combined with the low interest rate environment, continue to make gold attractive,” according to the WGC.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
The%20specs
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Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Sebastian Stefan, Sebastian Morar and Claudia Pacurar
Based: Dubai, UAE
Founded: 2014
Number of employees: 36
Sector: Logistics
Raised: $2.5 million
Investors: DP World, Prime Venture Partners and family offices in Saudi Arabia and the UAE
Company Profile
Company name: Big Farm Brothers
Started: September 2020
Founders: Vishal Mahajan and Navneet Kaur
Based: Dubai Investment Park 1
Industry: food and agriculture
Initial investment: $205,000
Current staff: eight to 10
Future plan: to expand to other GCC markets
Dubai World Cup Carnival Thursday race card
6.30pm: Dubai Millennium Stakes Group Three US$200,000 (Turf) 2,000m
7.05pm: Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,600m
7.40pm: UAE Oaks Group Three $250,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
8.15pm: Zabeel Mile Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,600m
8.50pm: Meydan Sprint Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,000m
9.25pm: Handicap $135,000 (D) 1,400m
10pm: Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,600m
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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The specs
Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 217hp at 5,750rpm
Torque: 300Nm at 1,900rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh130,000
On sale: now
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
How to donate
Text the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
6025 - Dh 20
2252 - Dh 50
2208 - Dh 100
6020 - Dh 200
*numbers work for both Etisalat and du
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The biog
DOB: March 13, 1987
Place of birth: Jeddah, Saudi Arabia but lived in Virginia in the US and raised in Lebanon
School: ACS in Lebanon
University: BSA in Graphic Design at the American University of Beirut
MSA in Design Entrepreneurship at the School of Visual Arts in New York City
Nationality: Lebanese
Status: Single
Favourite thing to do: I really enjoy cycling, I was a participant in Cycling for Gaza for the second time this year
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Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
Abu Dhabi race card
5pm Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic Prestige | Dh110,000 | 1,400m
5.30pm Abu Dhabi Colts Classic Prestige | Dh110,000 | 1,400m
6pm Abu Dhabi Championship Listed | Dh180,000 | 1,600m
6.30pm Maiden | Dh80,000 | 1,600m
7pm Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap | Dh80,000 | 1,400m
7.30pm Handicap (TB) |Dh100,000 | 2,400m
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Company%C2%A0profile
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BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Padmaavat
Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali
Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh
3.5/5
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
