Markets seem to have shaken off initial Omicron worries for the time being. The S&P 500 is up 2.4 per cent in December and approaching all-time highs, while the Nasdaq, albeit down 0.09 per cent on the month, has bounced back handsomely from those 15,500 lows at the beginning of the month.
However, one of the key risks of this new Covid-19 variant will be if governments take harsher actions to reduce the risk of transmission.
The UK implemented “Plan B” restrictions last week, which resulted in GBP/USD futures contracts on the Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange slipping below 1.33 levels.
While we note that the Omicron variant’s transmissibility is higher, that does not necessarily translate to higher death rates at this juncture. This theme could change, of course.
Equity markets have bounced back amid the Omicron threat and have also navigated elevated inflationary threats.
The US Consumer Price Index, a key measure of inflation, came in at 6.8 per cent last month – its highest level in 39 years. Despite the higher-than-expected print, markets continued their upward momentum and now all attention this week turns to when the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank deliver their final policy announcements of 2021.
As I have discussed in earlier columns, central bank action – or the lack thereof – has been a key theme for markets.
Global central banks now find themselves at a precipice. Despite months of quantitative easing measures, which saw unprecedented levels of liquidity poured into the system to battle Covid-19, inflationary threats have emerged and it has now become a question of when, not if, to rein in their stimulus programmes.
Global central banks now find themselves at a precipice. Despite months of quantitative easing measures, inflationary threats have emerged
Gaurav Kashyap,
head of futures, EGM Futures
The Federal Reserve, which will deliver its announcement in the late hours of Wednesday (11pm UAE time), is not expected to raise rates but could dial up its hawkish tone and speed up tightening efforts. Some in the market expect the Fed to double the current pace of its bond purchase taper.
Pay attention to Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s language during the press conference – if he delivers a stronger/faster taper programme, then equities will come under pressure. However, if his comments do not come out as strong and the Fed maintains the current pace of taper, this expect equities to be lifted through to the end of the year.
The ECB and the BoE follow with their announcements on Thursday. The BoE was set to be the first central bank to begin the rate increase cycle.
But despite inflation running higher than expected, a run of weaker-than-expected economic figures – the UK economy grew by a paltry 0.1 per cent month-on-month in October – the rise of Omicron and initiation of Plan B restrictions have put the BoE in a conflicted position and it may wait until 2022 for further price action.
The ECB finds itself in a similar position. High-ranking ECB officials have reinforced the idea that while inflation threats are temporary, a surge in Covid-19 cases in the winter months keeps things uncertain.
So while the current $2.9 trillion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme is set to expire in March, do not be surprised if ECB president Christine Lagarde leaves the door open to restart asset purchases if need be.
We have entered a critical week dominated by central bank policy, which will undoubtedly develop trends for the first half of 2022. I expect volatility to be rife in the interim.
Gaurav Kashyap is head of futures at EGM Futures. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of EGM Futures
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Results
ATP Dubai Championships on Monday (x indicates seed):
First round
Roger Federer (SUI x2) bt Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) 6-4, 3-6, 6-1
Fernando Verdasco (ESP) bt Thomas Fabbiano (ITA) 3-6, 6-3, 6-2
Marton Fucsovics (HUN) bt Damir Dzumhur (BIH) 6-1, 7-6 (7/5)
Nikoloz Basilashvili (GEO) bt Karen Khachanov (RUS x4) 6-4, 6-1
Jan-Lennard Struff (GER) bt Milos Raonic (CAN x7) 6-4, 5-7, 6-4
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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Semi-final fixtures
Portugal v Chile, 7pm, today
Germany v Mexico, 7pm, tomorrow
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Essentials
The flights
Return flights from Dubai to Windhoek, with a combination of Emirates and Air Namibia, cost from US$790 (Dh2,902) via Johannesburg.
The trip
A 10-day self-drive in Namibia staying at a combination of the safari camps mentioned – Okonjima AfriCat, Little Kulala, Desert Rhino/Damaraland, Ongava – costs from $7,000 (Dh25,711) per person, including car hire (Toyota 4x4 or similar), but excluding international flights, with The Luxury Safari Company.
When to go
The cooler winter months, from June to September, are best, especially for game viewing.
Women’s World T20, Asia Qualifier, in Bangkok
UAE fixtures Mon Nov 20, v China; Tue Nov 21, v Thailand; Thu Nov 23, v Nepal; Fri Nov 24, v Hong Kong; Sun Nov 26, v Malaysia; Mon Nov 27, Final
(The winners will progress to the Global Qualifier)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
'Doctor Strange in the Multiverse Of Madness'
Director: Sam Raimi
Cast: Benedict Cumberbatch, Elizabeth Olsen, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Benedict Wong, Xochitl Gomez, Michael Stuhlbarg and Rachel McAdams
Rating: 3/5
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
