In 1943, the Second World War was hanging in the balance. The US Air Force was suffering badly from the German air defence. Too many of their planes were going down to enemy fire. The military knew armour would help but couldn’t protect the whole plane because it would be too heavy to fly.
Researching the returning planes, they found many were receiving most bullet holes to the wings and tail and concluded they needed to increase armour to these areas.
However, mathematician Abraham Wald didn’t agree. He believed the US Air Force’s analysis was missing a valuable part of the picture – the planes that were hit but hadn’t made it back.
The military was planning to armour the wrong parts of the planes. The bullet holes they were looking at actually indicated the areas a plane could be hit and keep flying – exactly the areas that didn't need reinforcing.
He concluded: “Don't armour the wings and tail. Armour the engine. Those are the planes that have not survived, and thus are not available for research.”
The US Air Force suffered tens of thousands of casualties during the Second World War, but without Wald’s advice, this would have been far higher. His insight and reasoning illustrates what we now call “survivorship bias”. The human tendency to focus on survivors or successful outcomes and ignore non-survivors or failures.
It’s easy to fall into this trap. A desire to learn from the successful is a natural instinct, but it can backfire. After any process that leaves behind survivors, the non-survivors are often removed from your view. A classic case of “out of sight, out of mind”. If failures become invisible, then naturally you pay more attention to successes.
Say you’re planning to start your own business because there are so many successful start-ups in your sector. You are ignoring the fact that only successful start-ups survive to become examples. However, 90 per cent of all start-ups fail within five years – more in certain industries.
Seeing only successes, day after day, might inspire you to leave the comfort of a corporate career to enjoy the thrill, excitement and growth of a start-up. You’re actually seeing evidence you should avoid.
Seeing only successes, day after day, might inspire you to leave the comfort of a corporate career to enjoy the thrill, excitement and growth of a start-up
Sam Instone,
co-chief executive of AES
Another example is a gym featuring those who’ve toned up quickly as a result of working out at their facilities but, of course, what they never show is those who signed up but achieved no more than a depleted bank account.
In my own work on maximising the returns on capital our clients entrust us with, survivorship bias is the tendency to view the performance of existing stocks or funds in the market as a representative comprehensive sample, without regarding those that have gone bust.
The result? Overestimation of historical performance and general attributes of a fund or market index. Survivorship bias can increase the chances of an investor making a misguided investment decision based on published investment fund return data. Making decisions based on the wrong facts.
Effective decisions around money or life are governed by two external truths. Firstly, a lack of clarity on understanding yourself or the situation will lead to poor decisions. Secondly, lasting change requires you to be honest with yourself, be disciplined, rigorous with the data and persistent.
Survivorship bias can lead us to overly optimistic beliefs because failures are ignored as they are not as visible as successes. It can also lead us to the false belief that the successes within a group have some special properties, rather than just coincidence.
And that is what pulls us towards best-selling diet gurus, celebrity chief executives, superstar stock pickers and get-rich-quick cryptocurrency traders. You look to the successful for clues about how to better live your life — and how you, too, can survive similar forces against which you also struggle.
The problem here is that you rarely take away advice on what “not” to do and on what you should avoid. And that’s because most don’t know this. Information like that is lost along with those who don’t make it out of bad situations or who do not make it to magazine covers.
So, how do you avoid being duped by survivorship bias?
Recognise that luck plays a huge role in success, although the path is always obvious in hindsight.
Whenever you read a success story, think of all the people who tried to do what that person did and failed. When looking for advice, also look for what not to do (even when you don't want to hear it).
Most of the time, success is all about avoiding large catastrophic failures while absorbing small, manageable damage. Without doubt, helping my clients avoid costly mistakes is part of the peace of mind and value that comes with professional advice.
As Max Lerner, the late Russian-born American journalist, famously said: “History is written by the survivors.”
What action could you take today to remove your blinders and consider what you don’t see?
Sam Instone is co-chief executive of wealth management company AES
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
The%20Genius%20of%20Their%20Age
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FIGHT%20CARD
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THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
ARSENAL IN 1977
Feb 05 Arsenal 0-0 Sunderland
Feb 12 Manchester City 1-0 Arsenal
Feb 15 Middlesbrough 3-0 Arsenal
Feb 19 Arsenal 2-3 West Ham
Feb 26 Middlesbrough 4-1 Arsenal (FA Cup)
Mar 01 Everton 2-1 Arsenal
Mar 05 Arsenal 1-4 ipswich
March 08 Arsenal 1-2 West Brom
Mar 12 QPR 2-1 Arsenal
Mar 23 Stoke 1-1 Arsenal
Apr 02 Arsenal 3-0 Leicester
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha
Starring: Ajay Devgn, Tabu, Shantanu Maheshwari, Jimmy Shergill, Saiee Manjrekar
Director: Neeraj Pandey
Rating: 2.5/5
MATCH INFO
Quarter-finals
Saturday (all times UAE)
England v Australia, 11.15am
New Zealand v Ireland, 2.15pm
Sunday
Wales v France, 11.15am
Japan v South Africa, 2.15pm
Name: Colm McLoughlin
Country: Galway, Ireland
Job: Executive vice chairman and chief executive of Dubai Duty Free
Favourite golf course: Dubai Creek Golf and Yacht Club
Favourite part of Dubai: Palm Jumeirah
The specs: 2017 Porsche 718 Cayman
Price, base / as tested Dh222,500 / Dh296,870
Engine 2.0L, flat four-cylinder
Transmission Seven-speed PDK
Power 300hp @ 6,500rpm
Torque 380hp @ 1,950rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.9L / 100km
Manchester City 4
Otamendi (52) Sterling (59) Stones (67) Brahim Diaz (81)
Real Madrid 1
Oscar (90)
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sept 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
UAE cricketers abroad
Sid Jhurani is not the first cricketer from the UAE to go to the UK to try his luck.
Rameez Shahzad Played alongside Ben Stokes and Liam Plunkett in Durham while he was studying there. He also played club cricket as an overseas professional, but his time in the UK stunted his UAE career. The batsman went a decade without playing for the national team.
Yodhin Punja The seam bowler was named in the UAE’s extended World Cup squad in 2015 despite being just 15 at the time. He made his senior UAE debut aged 16, and subsequently took up a scholarship at Claremont High School in the south of England.
Brief scores
Toss India, chose to bat
India 281-7 in 50 ov (Pandya 83, Dhoni 79; Coulter-Nile 3-44)
Australia 137-9 in 21 ov (Maxwell 39, Warner 25; Chahal 3-30)
India won by 26 runs on Duckworth-Lewis Method
Armies of Sand
By Kenneth Pollack (Oxford University Press)
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
French business
France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Third Test
Day 3, stumps
India 443-7 (d) & 54-5 (27 ov)
Australia 151
India lead by 346 runs with 5 wickets remaining
UAE squad
Esha Oza (captain), Al Maseera Jahangir, Emily Thomas, Heena Hotchandani, Indhuja Nandakumar, Katie Thompson, Lavanya Keny, Mehak Thakur, Michelle Botha, Rinitha Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Siya Gokhale, Sashikala Silva, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish (wicketkeeper) Udeni Kuruppuarachchige, Vaishnave Mahesh.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Info
What: 11th edition of the Mubadala World Tennis Championship
When: December 27-29, 2018
Confirmed: men: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Kevin Anderson, Dominic Thiem, Hyeon Chung, Karen Khachanov; women: Venus Williams
Tickets: www.ticketmaster.ae, Virgin megastores or call 800 86 823
KYLIAN MBAPPE 2016/17 STATS
Ligue 1: Appearances - 29, Goals - 15, Assists - 8
UCL: Appearances - 9, Goals - 6
French Cup: Appearances - 3, Goals - 3
France U19: Appearances - 5, Goals - 5, Assists - 1
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
