Investors have plenty of reasons to feel edgy right now, with stagflation, stock bubbles, potential market crashes, supply chain shortages, oil shocks and climate change all threatening disaster.
Throw in growing US-China tensions, scattered Covid-19 outbreaks and a feeling that the 12-year stock market bull run cannot last for ever, and it is amazing that investors do not sell every asset they own and bolt for the hills.
You could call it post-pandemic stress disorder.
Yet stock markets have held firm. In fact, the S&P 500 has just hit an all-time high by closing above 36,000 for the first time.
The bond market has not crashed – yet. Bitcoin is enjoying another purple patch. Safe-haven gold remains out of favour. Risk is still on.
Yet still the anxiety persists. How worried should we be?
Nobody can accurately predict when the next crisis will happen, so do not believe anybody who claims they can, says Chaddy Kirbaj, vice director at Swissquote Bank.
“That said, there is a consensus that we are living in a bubble, with stock prices and indexes at historical levels, massive amounts of cheap money still available, property prices ballooning in major cities, and abnormal scenarios becoming new economic realities,” Mr Kirbaj says.
As central banks prepare to withdraw Covid-19 stimulus measure and policymakers battle climate change, Mr Kirbaj is in a defensive mood and suggests stress testing your portfolio before the storm strikes.
But resist the temptation to panic. “We don't expect a crisis this year, but the second half of 2022 may be challenging due to record global inflation, high production costs, booming energy prices and potential mistakes in monetary policies or the green energy transformation process,” Mr Kirbaj says.
Uncertainty is rife, says Lorenzo La Posta, senior analyst at Momentum Global Investment Management (MGIM). “Is the current bout of inflation transitory? How will central banks respond? When will disruptions to global trade end? Will labour shortages and raw material supplies return to normal? Is there such a thing as ‘normal’ any more?”
He says the biggest threat right now is stagflation – that nasty blend of rising inflation and slowing economic growth.
That could force central bankers to raise interest rates, slowing the economy further, which would hit stock markets and bonds.
There will still be winners among the losers, Mr La Posta says. “Commodities and mining stocks would benefit from rising prices, while inflation-linked government bonds would also outperform.”
Since nobody can say for sure what will happen next, the best way to protect yourself is to diversify your portfolio across a spread of assets, he says.
“We own commodities and inflation-linked bonds, in case of stagflation. We also hold emerging market equities and bonds, as well as real estate, for a high-growth, high-inflation world. Also government bonds in case of stagnation, and developed market equities for continued strong and steady growth.”
Investors cannot avoid uncertainty, Mr La Posta says, and need to embrace it instead.
US tech companies such as Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Tesla have dominated the past decade, but many investors may now be over exposed to these growth stocks, says Mark Leale, head of Quilter Cheviot’s Dubai office.
He suggests they should rebalance their portfolios in favour of areas that have underperformed, such as value stocks. These are larger, established blue-chip companies that pay regular dividends and are typically found in sectors such as utilities, health care and consumer staples.
Banking stocks may also benefit as inflation and interest rates rise. This allows them to boost net lending margins, which is the difference between what they pay savers and charge borrowers.
So it may be worth taking some of your tech growth and shifting it into value. While you're at it, check your bond fund exposure, because that sector may also struggle, Mr Leale says.
There is a consensus that we are living in a bubble, with stock prices and indexes at historical levels, massive amounts of cheap money still available, property prices ballooning in major cities, and abnormal scenarios becoming new economic realities
Chaddy Kirbaj,
vice director at Swissquote Bank
Bonds pay a fixed rate of income, but this is less attractive as interest rates rise and investors can get a better return elsewhere. The subsequent sell-off could hit bond prices. “This is making ownership of bond funds increasingly unattractive. We have seen a few difficult days for bond markets. There could be more,” Mr Leale says.
Like Mr La Posta, Mr Leale also favours commodities, not just as an inflation hedge but also because they will play an increasingly important role in the energy transition. “Materials are needed for the production of green infrastructure, batteries and electric motors,” he says.
Gold is another traditional inflation hedge but recent performance has been poor. Most advisers still recommend holding some as the price tends to hold firm or rise when shares are crashing,, but no more than 5 per cent or 10 per cent of your total portfolio. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are often touted as an inflation hedge but are prone to wild price swings, so, again, limit your exposure.
The best way to combat volatility is to invest for the long term because inflation will not soar for ever, Mr Leale says. Keeping some cash to hand is also advised. “That will allow you to take advantage of any volatility and purchase assets at a reduced price.”
Your investment decisions should be guided by four basic principles, says Mark Fitzgerald, head of product specialism at Vanguard Europe. “Start with your goals, shape an investment strategy around those goals, keep your costs low and remain disciplined. Whatever happens in the markets, think long term and tune out the noise.”
It is also worth checking whether your portfolio is appropriate for meeting your long-term goals within your risk level, he says. “Check if your plan has changed over time. If not, stick to it. Remember that more return equals more risk, up to a point. If you take on too much risk, you may not receive those higher returns.”
If investing for the long term, you can afford to look past short-term troubles, Mr Fitzgerald says. “Remain patient and stick to your guns.”
If you need to access your funds soon, shift into lower-risk investments to help preserve their capital value. “The longer your time frame, the more risks you should be able to take,” Mr Fitzgerald says.
Investing has always been uncertain but the old mantra “never put all your eggs in one basket” holds true.
Diversification is often called “the only free lunch in investing”, says Chris Davies, a chartered financial planner at The Fry Group. “If part of your portfolio underperforms, other assets will protect you as they react differently.”
Diversification also protects you against the temptation to second-guess the future. “It is difficult to predict which sectors or regions will be the winner each year, so diversification allows you to capture the broad market return, year after year,” Mr Davies says.
You must also understand the long-term risk-and-return profile of the assets you hold, he says. “This can be hard for DIY investors, so seek advice from a financial planner if unsure.”
But it is important not be too negative because winter is traditionally a “sweet spot” for stock markets, says Lee Wild, head of equity strategy at Interactive Investor. “With luck, investors with a well balanced and diversified portfolio should be able to switch off and enjoy the festive period, which often brings a ‘Santa rally’.”
Let’s hope he’s right. We need a break from all this stress.
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More from Neighbourhood Watch
GULF MEN'S LEAGUE
Pool A Dubai Hurricanes, Bahrain, Dubai Exiles, Dubai Tigers 2
Pool B Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Jebel Ali Dragons, Dubai Knights Eagles, Dubai Tigers
Opening fixtures
Thursday, December 5
6.40pm, Pitch 8, Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Dubai Knights Eagles
7pm, Pitch 2, Jebel Ali Dragons v Dubai Tigers
7pm, Pitch 4, Dubai Hurricanes v Dubai Exiles
7pm, Pitch 5, Bahrain v Dubai Eagles 2
Recent winners
2018 Dubai Hurricanes
2017 Dubai Exiles
2016 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
2015 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
2014 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
CHATGPT%20ENTERPRISE%20FEATURES
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Enterprise-grade%20security%20and%20privacy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Unlimited%20higher-speed%20GPT-4%20access%20with%20no%20caps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Longer%20context%20windows%20for%20processing%20longer%20inputs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Advanced%20data%20analysis%20capabilities%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customisation%20options%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shareable%20chat%20templates%20that%20companies%20can%20use%20to%20collaborate%20and%20build%20common%20workflows%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Analytics%20dashboard%20for%20usage%20insights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Free%20credits%20to%20use%20OpenAI%20APIs%20to%20extend%20OpenAI%20into%20a%20fully-custom%20solution%20for%20enterprises%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
The Birkin bag is made by Hermès.
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.
Company%20Profile
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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Abu Dhabi GP weekend schedule
Friday
First practice, 1pm
Second practice, 5pm
Saturday
Final practice, 2pm
Qualifying, 5pm
Sunday
Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (55 laps), 5.10pm
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The%20Genius%20of%20Their%20Age
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20S%20Frederick%20Starr%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Oxford%20University%20Press%3Cbr%3EPages%3A%20290%3Cbr%3EAvailable%3A%20January%2024%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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CONCRETE COWBOY
Directed by: Ricky Staub
Starring: Idris Elba, Caleb McLaughlin, Jharrel Jerome
3.5/5 stars
The%20trailblazers
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Company Profile:
Name: The Protein Bakeshop
Date of start: 2013
Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani
Based: Dubai
Size, number of employees: 12
Funding/investors: $400,000 (2018)
MATCH INFO
Manchester United v Manchester City, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Match is on BeIN Sports
Poland Statement
All people fleeing from Ukraine before the armed conflict are allowed to enter Poland. Our country shelters every person whose life is in danger - regardless of their nationality.
The dominant group of refugees in Poland are citizens of Ukraine, but among the people checked by the Border Guard are also citizens of the USA, Nigeria, India, Georgia and other countries.
All persons admitted to Poland are verified by the Border Guard. In relation to those who are in doubt, e.g. do not have documents, Border Guard officers apply appropriate checking procedures.
No person who has received refuge in Poland will be sent back to a country torn by war.
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Terminator: Dark Fate
Director: Tim Miller
Starring: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Linda Hamilton, Mackenzie Davis
Rating: 3/5
Courses%20at%20Istituto%20Marangoni%2C%20Dubai
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUndergraduate%20courses%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EInterior%20Design%3B%20Product%20Design%3B%20Visual%20Design%3B%20Fashion%20Design%20%26amp%3B%20Accessories%3B%20Fashion%20Styling%20%26amp%3B%20Creative%20Direction%3B%20Fashion%20Business%3B%20Foundation%20in%20Fashion%3B%20Foundation%20in%20Design%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EProfessional%20courses%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EFashion%20e-Commerce%20%26amp%3B%20Digital%20Marketing%3B%20Fashion%20Entrepreneurship%3B%20Fashion%20Luxury%20Retail%20and%20Visual%20Merchandising%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EShort%20courses%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EFashion%20design%3B%20Fashion%20Image%20%26amp%3B%20Styling%3B%20Fashion%20Trend%20Forecasting%3B%20Interior%20Design%3B%20Digital%20Art%20in%20Fashion%3Cbr%3EMore%20information%20is%20at%20%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.istitutomarangoni.com%2Fen%3Futm_source%3DLocal%26utm_medium%3Dorganic%26utm_campaign%3Dgmb%26utm_content%3Ddubai%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3Ewww.istitutomarangoni.com%3C%2Fa%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Teams in the EHL
White Bears, Al Ain Theebs, Dubai Mighty Camels, Abu Dhabi Storms, Abu Dhabi Scorpions and Vipers
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Masters%20of%20the%20Air
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cary%20Joji%20Fukunaga%2C%20Dee%20Rees%2C%20Anna%20Boden%2C%20Ryan%20Fleck%2C%20Tim%20Van%20Patten%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Austin%20Butler%2C%20Callum%20Turner%2C%20Anthony%20Boyle%2C%20Barry%20Keoghan%2C%20Sawyer%20Spielberg%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
STAGE 4 RESULTS
1 Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep - 4:51:51
2 David Dekker (NED) Team Jumbo-Visma
3 Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal
4 Elia Viviani (ITA) Cofidis
5 Matteo Moschetti (ITA) Trek-Segafredo
General Classification
1 Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates - 12:50:21
2 Adam Yates (GBR) Teamn Ineos Grenadiers - 0:00:43
3 Joao Almeida (POR) Deceuninck-QuickStep - 0:01:03
4 Chris Harper (AUS) Jumbo-Visma - 0:01:43
5 Neilson Powless (USA) EF Education-Nippo - 0:01:45
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
8 traditional Jamaican dishes to try at Kingston 21
- Trench Town Rock: Jamaican-style curry goat served in a pastry basket with a carrot and potato garnish
- Rock Steady Jerk Chicken: chicken marinated for 24 hours and slow-cooked on the grill
- Mento Oxtail: flavoured oxtail stewed for five hours with herbs
- Ackee and salt fish: the national dish of Jamaica makes for a hearty breakfast
- Jamaican porridge: another breakfast favourite, can be made with peanut, cornmeal, banana and plantain
- Jamaican beef patty: a pastry with ground beef filling
- Hellshire Pon di Beach: Fresh fish with pickles
- Out of Many: traditional sweet potato pudding
Turkish Ladies
Various artists, Sony Music Turkey
SCHEDULE
Saturday, April 20: 11am to 7pm - Abu Dhabi World Jiu-Jitsu Festival and Para jiu-jitsu.
Sunday, April 21: 11am to 6pm - Abu Dhabi World Youth (female) Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Monday, April 22: 11am to 6pm - Abu Dhabi World Youth (male) Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Tuesday, April 23: 11am-6pm Abu Dhabi World Masters Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Wednesday, April 24: 11am-6pm Abu Dhabi World Professional Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Thursday, April 25: 11am-5pm Abu Dhabi World Professional Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Friday, April 26: 3pm to 6pm Finals of the Abu Dhabi World Professional Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Saturday, April 27: 4pm and 8pm awards ceremony.
The years Ramadan fell in May
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
MATCH INFO
Asian Champions League, last 16, first leg:
Al Ain 2 Al Duhail 4
Second leg:
Tuesday, Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha. Kick off 7.30pm
The%20specs%3A%202024%20Mercedes%20E200
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The%20Beekeeper
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