If you are going to stick your neck out and predict a global stock and property market crash, you might as well go all the way.
That’s what Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, has just done by forecasting “the biggest crash in world history”.
Not only that, he has also put a time limit on it. This month. October 2021. He is warning that Chinese property developer Evergrande is in danger of defaulting on debts totalling $300 billion and this could trigger a global stock and property crash.
Or as he put it in a tweet: “China’s Evergrande Group cannot pay. Valuation of properties fake. Will real estate crash spread to US? Yes.”
Shares will fall, too, apparently. Also gold, silver and Bitcoin. It’s quite a prediction and it’s exactly the type of thing experienced investors expect at this time of year.
The Bank Panic of 1907, the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and Black Monday in 1987 all happened in October. No wonder investors get jittery as Halloween looms.
So, how worried should you be and which asset classes are likely to be hit hardest?
Stocks and shares
Investors should not pay too much heed to the so-called “October effect”, Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial in Dubai, says. “While several of the stock market’s biggest crashes have occurred in October, history also shows the US S&P500 often delivers positive gains during the month, including six of the past 10 years.”
The global economy faces a number of severe challenges right now, including “US-China trade tensions, gathering inflation, tighter monetary policy, supply-side bottlenecks and record high global debt”, says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
He believes China will be able to contain the Evergrande crash, but cautions: “If it doesn’t, markets could be in for a bumpy ride.”
The stock market faces plenty of headwinds as the US Federal Reserve considers tapering monetary stimulus this year and hiking interest rates in 2022, Chaddy Kirbaj, vice director at Swissquote Bank, says.
“Tapering may take more time than many expect, but cheap money won’t sustain the current market euphoria for much longer,” he adds.
Inflation is the big worry as the cost of living shoots up amid rising energy prices, supply chain disruptions, red-hot commodities and global food price spikes, Mr Kirbaj says.
“Unless this is transitory, the global economy will fall into stagflation, with stagnant growth and high inflation. This could happen sooner rather than later.”
Investors should not pay too much heed to the so-called October effect
Vijay Valecha,
chief investment officer, Century Financial
So, what would all this mean for your portfolio?
Although the crash might not happen, investors should prepare a game plan in case it does, Mr Valecha says. “In a crash, most sectors perform badly. However, others fare relatively well, including utilities, consumer staples and health care.”
If worried, he suggests investors shift some of their portfolios into lower-volatility businesses that are less sensitive to economic cycles and market corrections.
“Whether the economy is shrinking or growing, these companies enjoy steady demand and produce predictable cash flows,” Mr Valecha adds.
Even defensive stocks will fall with everything else in a crash, but they will cushion you from the worst of the sell-off.
A number of specialist exchange-traded funds (ETFs) target defensive stocks, such as the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund. For those wanting healthcare exposure, investors may want to consider the iShares US Healthcare Providers ETF.
Mr Valecha also suggests buying the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF, which should be a beneficiary of the global energy crisis.
“Higher energy costs will hammer industries that consume a lot of power but boost gas, oil and coal producers as winter approaches and demand rises,” he says.
US technology stocks are the biggest winners of the past decade, but could suffer in a crash.
“Stimulus spending has peaked, economic and corporate earnings growth are set to decelerate and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this will sit well with holders of increasingly pricey technology shares,” Mr Valecha says.
However, this could also present a buying opportunity if there is a crash and Mr Valecha says one option for investors is the Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 tech index. “Growth stocks like the tech giants tend to bounce back faster in a recovery.”
Mr Kirbaj also favours defensive utilities, consumer and healthcare stocks with sustainable dividends and is wary of US tech as interest rates rise. “However, tech sectors such as cyber security and artificial intelligence may fare better,” he adds.
Gold
Gold is a traditional safe haven in tricky times and you would expect it to shine in a crash.
Yet, the gold price fell slightly over the past month, despite growing jitters. It is down 7 per cent this year to $1,748 an ounce at the time of writing.
But Mr Kirbaj remains bullish and believes the precious metal will prove an attractive store of value as global inflation rises.
Josh Saul, chief executive of The Pure Gold Company, reports a 700 per cent increase in first-time investors purchasing physical gold bars and coins. “Our clients are looking for a safe-haven asset that will protect their wealth amidst growing uncertainty.”
At the same time, he has also seen a 257 per cent increase in clients selling “to provide liquidity for debt and bills that their depleted incomes won’t cover”.
Gold is best viewed as an insurance policy against falling assets such as shares and depreciating currencies, Mr Saul says. “It should prove its worth as uncertainty increases.”
Cash
If interest rates start rising and stock markets crash, cash may seem like the obvious beneficiary. The danger is that central bankers will be slow to increase rates, in the hope that rising prices are transitory, so the value in cash will fall even faster in real terms.
Mr Kiyosaki suggests that investors might like to keep some cash handy to buy bargain stocks in the aftermath of the upcoming crash but others are more sceptical, including Mr Kirbaj.
“Although bond yields are rising, we aren't considering cash as an investment for now,” he says.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is enjoying yet another resurgence, busting through the $50,000 barrier to trade at around $55,000 at the time of writing. Could a new all-time high be in sight?
The recent rally is impressive given China's tightening of regulations surrounding cryptocurrencies, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at ThinkMarkets.com. “Bitcoin is possibly being seen as a tool to hedge against inflation, a safe-haven asset independent of central bank control,” he says.
Investors also hope that more countries will adopt cryptocurrencies over time and China might have second thoughts when digital currencies become more established.
“Some are betting that Brazil might be the next country to embrace Bitcoin as legal tender, after El Salvador. That would be a monumental moment, given that Brazil is the 12th-largest economy in the world with a huge population of more than 200 million people,” Mr Razaqzada adds.
Mr Kirbaj is also a Bitcoin bull. “More traders and long-term investors will bet on Bitcoin and other cryptos, including ETFs and structured products, as confidence in the traditional monetary system is fading,” he says.
US dollar
The US dollar is holding firm and that should continue, says Matt Weller, global head of research at Forex.com.
US bond yields are rising as investors anticipate higher US interest rates. “Two-year Treasury bonds have one of the best correlations with the US dollar and yields are now testing 0.28 per cent, their highest level since the onset of Covid-19 last March. They are up 10 basis points from the start of September,” Mr Weller says.
Bitcoin is possibly being seen a tool to hedge against inflation, a safe-haven asset independent of central bank control
Fawad Razaqzada,
market analyst, ThinkMarkets.com
Two-year Treasury yields have since crept up to 0.30 per cent, which may seem low but marks an 18-month high and more could be in store.
If the trend continues, the greenback could get stronger from here.
Bonds
Rising inflation is bad for bonds for two reasons. First, bonds pay a fixed income and this will look less attractive if investors can get a higher return from other lower-risk assets such as cash.
Second, as yields rise, bond prices fall, which means investors get less back when their bond finally matures.
At one point, more than $15 trillion of global bonds were trading on negative yields, which meant investors were paying people to look after their money.
Those days may be drawing to a close if interest rates rise to curb inflation, Althea Spinozzi, fixed-income strategist at Saxo Bank, says.
The question is how soon the Fed acts. “So far, it has decided inflation is transitory and held interest rates low, supporting bonds,” she adds.
The longer central bankers wait before pulling monetary support, the more aggressive they will need to be, Ms Spinozzi says. “This could provoke an unexpected rise in real yields that will increase market volatility and put weaker corporate bond issuers at risk.”
Bonds are traditionally seen as a safe haven in a stock market crash, but this time they could be right in the firing line.
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
BABYLON
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Damien%20Chazelle%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStars%3A%20Brad%20Pitt%2C%20Margot%20Robbie%2C%20Jean%20Smart%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MORE ON TURKEY'S SYRIA OFFENCE
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
MORE ON TURKEY'S SYRIA OFFENCE
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last-16 second leg
Paris Saint-Germain (1) v Borussia Dortmund (2)
Kick-off: Midnight, Thursday, March 12
Stadium: Parc des Princes
Live: On beIN Sports HD
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
PROFILE
Name: Enhance Fitness
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
Employees: 200
Amount raised: $3m
Investors: Global Ventures and angel investors
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre supercharged V8
Power: 712hp at 6,100rpm
Torque: 881Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 19.6 l/100km
Price: Dh380,000
On sale: now
Saudi Cup race day
Schedule in UAE time
5pm: Mohamed Yousuf Naghi Motors Cup (Turf), 5.35pm: 1351 Cup (T), 6.10pm: Longines Turf Handicap (T), 6.45pm: Obaiya Arabian Classic for Purebred Arabians (Dirt), 7.30pm: Jockey Club Handicap (D), 8.10pm: Samba Saudi Derby (D), 8.50pm: Saudia Sprint (D), 9.40pm: Saudi Cup (D)
Race card
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m
6pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round-2 Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 2,200m
6.30pm: Liwa Oaisi Group 2 (PA) Dh300,000 1,400m
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 1,600m
The National selections: 5pm: Flit Al Maury, 5.30pm: Sadah, 6pm: RB Seqondtonone, 6.30pm: RB Money To Burn, 7pm: SS Jalmood, 7.30pm: Dalaalaat
Results
6.30pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 (PA) US$100,000 (Dirt) 2,000m, Winner Bandar, Fernando Jara (jockey), Majed Al Jahouri (trainer).
7.05pm Meydan Classic Listed (TB) $175,000 (Turf) 1,600m, Winner Well Of Wisdom, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
7.40pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m, Winner Star Safari, Mickael Barzalona, Charlie Appleby.
8.15pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner Moqarrar, Fabrice Veron, Erwan Charpy.
8.50pm Nad Al Sheba Trophy Group 2 (TB) $300,000 (T) 2,810m, Winner Secret Advisor, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
9.25pm Curlin Stakes Listed (TB) $175,000 (D) 2,000m, Winner Parsimony, William Buick, Doug O’Neill.
10pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m, Winner Simsir, Ronan Whelan, Michael Halford.
10.35pm Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m, Winner Velorum, Mickael Barzalona, Charlie Appleby.
Planes grounded by coronavirus
British Airways: Cancels all direct flights to and from mainland China
Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific: Cutting capacity to/from mainland China by 50 per cent from Jan. 30
Chicago-based United Airlines: Reducing flights to Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong
Ai Seoul: Suspended all flights to China
Finnair: Suspending flights to Nanjing and Beijing Daxing until the end of March
Indonesia's Lion Air: Suspending all flights to China from February
South Korea's Asiana Airlines, Jeju Air and Jin Air: Suspend all flights
Brief scoreline:
Wolves 3
Neves 28', Doherty 37', Jota 45' 2
Arsenal 1
Papastathopoulos 80'
AUSTRALIA SQUADS
ODI squad: Aaron Finch (captain), Ashton Agar, Alex Carey, Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Marnus Labuschagne, Mitchell Marsh, Glenn Maxwell, Kane Richardson, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Matthew Wade, David Warner, Adam Zampa
Twenty20 squad: Aaron Finch (captain), Sean Abbott, Ashton Agar, Alex Carey, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Marsh, Glenn Maxwell, Jhye Richardson, Kane Richardson, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Matthew Wade, David Warner, Adam Zampa
RESULTS
Catchweight 82kg
Piotr Kuberski (POL) beat Ahmed Saeb (IRQ) by decision.
Women’s bantamweight
Corinne Laframboise (CAN) beat Cornelia Holm (SWE) by unanimous decision.
Welterweight
Omar Hussein (PAL) beat Vitalii Stoian (UKR) by unanimous decision.
Welterweight
Josh Togo (LEB) beat Ali Dyusenov (UZB) by unanimous decision.
Flyweight
Isaac Pimentel (BRA) beat Delfin Nawen (PHI) TKO round-3.
Catchweight 80kg
Seb Eubank (GBR) beat Emad Hanbali (SYR) KO round 1.
Lightweight
Mohammad Yahya (UAE) beat Ramadan Noaman (EGY) TKO round 2.
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) beat Reydon Romero (PHI) submission 1.
Welterweight
Juho Valamaa (FIN) beat Ahmed Labban (LEB) by unanimous decision.
Featherweight
Elias Boudegzdame (ALG) beat Austin Arnett (USA) by unanimous decision.
Super heavyweight
Maciej Sosnowski (POL) beat Ibrahim El Sawi (EGY) by submission round 1.
Results
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 Group 1 (PA) US$75,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Ziyadd, Richard Mullen (jockey), Jean de Roualle (trainer).
7.05pm: Al Rashidiya Group 2 (TB) $250,000 (Turf) 1,800m
Winner: Barney Roy, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
7.40pm: Meydan Cup Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,810m
Winner: Secret Advisor, Tadhg O’Shea, Charlie Appleby.
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Plata O Plomo, Carlos Lopez, Susanne Berneklint.
8.50pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: Salute The Soldier, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass.
9.25pm: Al Shindagha Sprint Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Gladiator King, Mickael Barzalona, Satish Seemar.
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.6-litre V6
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 285bhp
Torque: 353Nm
Price: TBA
On sale: Q2, 2020
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Saturday (UAE kick-off times)
Leganes v Getafe (12am)
Levante v Alaves (4pm)
Real Madrid v Sevilla (7pm)
Osasuna v Valladolid (9.30pm)
Sunday
Eibar v Atletico Madrid (12am)
Mallorca v Valencia (3pm)
Real Betis v Real Sociedad (5pm)
Villarreal v Espanyol (7pm)
Athletic Bilbao v Celta Vigo (9.30pm)
Monday
Barcelona v Granada (12am)
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 2,200m
Winner: Arjan, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer).
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Jap Nazaa, Royston Ffrench, Irfan Ellahi.
6pm: Al Ruwais Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 1,200m
Winner: RB Lam Tara, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinal.
6.30pm: Shadwell Gold Cup Prestige Dh125,000 1,600m
Winner: AF Sanad, Bernardo Pinheiro, Khalifa Al Neyadi.
7pm: Shadwell Farm Stallions Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Patrick Cosgrave, Abdallah Al Hammadi.
7.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 1,600m
Winner: Dubai Canal, Harry Bentley, Satish Seemar.
DC%20League%20of%20Super-Pets
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Jared%20Stern%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Dwayne%20Johnson%2C%20Kevin%20Hart%2C%20John%20Krasinski%2C%20Keanu%20Reeves%2C%20Olivia%20Wilde%2C%20Kate%20McKinnon%2C%20Jameela%20Jamil%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Results
Final: Iran beat Spain 6-3.
Play-off 3rd: UAE beat Russia 2-1 (in extra time).
Play-off 5th: Japan beat Egypt 7-2.
Play-off 7th: Italy beat Mexico 3-2.
FIXTURES (all times UAE)
Sunday
Brescia v Lazio (3.30pm)
SPAL v Verona (6pm)
Genoa v Sassuolo (9pm)
AS Roma v Torino (11.45pm)
Monday
Bologna v Fiorentina (3.30pm)
AC Milan v Sampdoria (6pm)
Juventus v Cagliari (6pm)
Atalanta v Parma (6pm)
Lecce v Udinese (9pm)
Napoli v Inter Milan (11.45pm)
Kandahar%20
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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DUNGEONS%20%26%20DRAGONS%3A%20HONOR%20AMONG%20THIEVES
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Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDirect%20Debit%20System%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sept%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20with%20a%20subsidiary%20in%20the%20UK%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Undisclosed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Elaine%20Jones%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
Mountain%20Boy
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Zainab%20Shaheen%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Naser%20Al%20Messabi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
TOURNAMENT INFO
Women’s World Twenty20 Qualifier
Jul 3- 14, in the Netherlands
The top two teams will qualify to play at the World T20 in the West Indies in November
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (captain), Chamani Seneviratne, Subha Srinivasan, Neha Sharma, Kavisha Kumari, Judit Cleetus, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Heena Hotchandani, Namita D’Souza, Ishani Senevirathne, Esha Oza, Nisha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
SECRET%20INVASION
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ali%20Selim%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Samuel%20L%20Jackson%2C%20Olivia%20Coleman%2C%20Kingsley%20Ben-Adir%2C%20Emilia%20Clarke%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The bio
Job: Coder, website designer and chief executive, Trinet solutions
School: Year 8 pupil at Elite English School in Abu Hail, Deira
Role Models: Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk
Dream City: San Francisco
Hometown: Dubai
City of birth: Thiruvilla, Kerala
The%20Genius%20of%20Their%20Age
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20S%20Frederick%20Starr%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Oxford%20University%20Press%3Cbr%3EPages%3A%20290%3Cbr%3EAvailable%3A%20January%2024%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Syria squad
Goalkeepers: Ibrahim Alma, Mahmoud Al Youssef, Ahmad Madania.
Defenders: Ahmad Al Salih, Moayad Ajan, Jehad Al Baour, Omar Midani, Amro Jenyat, Hussein Jwayed, Nadim Sabagh, Abdul Malek Anezan.
Midfielders: Mahmoud Al Mawas, Mohammed Osman, Osama Omari, Tamer Haj Mohamad, Ahmad Ashkar, Youssef Kalfa, Zaher Midani, Khaled Al Mobayed, Fahd Youssef.
Forwards: Omar Khribin, Omar Al Somah, Mardik Mardikian.
CHATGPT%20ENTERPRISE%20FEATURES
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Enterprise-grade%20security%20and%20privacy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Unlimited%20higher-speed%20GPT-4%20access%20with%20no%20caps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Longer%20context%20windows%20for%20processing%20longer%20inputs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Advanced%20data%20analysis%20capabilities%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customisation%20options%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shareable%20chat%20templates%20that%20companies%20can%20use%20to%20collaborate%20and%20build%20common%20workflows%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Analytics%20dashboard%20for%20usage%20insights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Free%20credits%20to%20use%20OpenAI%20APIs%20to%20extend%20OpenAI%20into%20a%20fully-custom%20solution%20for%20enterprises%3C%2Fp%3E%0A