Markets have been trading largely higher in August, albeit amid heightened volatility. US equity markets hit near-historic highs and the US dollar strengthened against its major counterparts.
But it has not been a straightforward month for markets, thanks to the emergence of the Delta variant and its potential to prompt future lockdowns, spooking investor sentiment in the short term.
Some states in the US are tightening restrictions as the seven-day average of new cases sits at 150,000, the highest caseload since January, when it was peaking at 253,000 a week.
The US Federal Reserve also finds itself in a rather precarious situation. Until the emergence of the Delta variant, the market anticipated that the current $120 billion quantitative easing programme would be tapered at some point in 2021.
With the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, an annual central banking conference that starts on Thursday, many had seen this meeting as a potential starting point for confirmation of the taper.
The Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, meeting minutes from earlier this month suggested that it could be appropriate to start tapering this year, perhaps as early as the FOMC's meeting in September.
While Jackson Hole has been historically known for announcing key policy measures, any such confirmation of a taper announcement is unlikely due to the Delta variant theme and the ensuing uncertainty surrounding its economic impact.
The Delta variant has already forced the central bank's symposium to be held online and I expect volatility to pick up when the meeting kicks off, particularly during chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, which is scheduled for Friday at 6pm UAE time.
Once again, I expect Mr Powell to continue to maintain the Fed's taper tones without giving a clear indication as to when markets can finally expect it.
While Jackson Hole has been historically known for announcing key policy measures, any such confirmation of a taper announcement is unlikely due to the Delta variant theme and ensuing uncertainty surrounding its economic impact
Garav Kashyap,
head of futures at Equiti Global Market
Along with the Jackson Hole meeting, there are a couple of key data points I am keeping an eye on.
US durable goods orders are set to be released this Wednesday and will be another good indicator of the current condition of the US economy.
Initial jobless claims data, which have shown four consecutive weeks of lower claims, will be released on Thursday, along with the US gross domestic product print, which is not expected to spring any major surprises.
Personal spending data is due on Friday and caps the economic data points for this week.
Looking ahead, manufacturing data, which is due out on September1 and September 3, will be key data points for markets.
I expect the US Dollar Index, a measure of the value of the dollar against a weighted basket of major currencies, to hold below 94.07 through August.
Across the pond, the euro and sterling remained weaker against a strengthening greenback this month.
The Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange's EUR/USD futures contract dropped below the 1.17 levels for the first time since November 2020, while the GBP/USD futures contract fell below 1.37 levels.
Despite improving growth forecasts for the euro area, the European Central Bank’s dovish stance towards monetary policy has not helped EUR/USD prospects and will continue to drag on prices throughout the month.
On the downside, a test of 1.1630 is a realistic prospect in the weeks ahead. The pound's prospects also continue to look anaemic in the weeks ahead. Technically, I see buying support coming in the channel between 1.3550 and 1.3580 and I do not expect a downside break through these levels.
Volatility returned to precious metal markets, with gold selling off more than 7 per cent at the start the month. DGCX Gold Futures broke through $1,700 and have slowly recovered since. I do not maintain a directional bias for gold in the short term and expect the precious metal to trade between $1,725 and $1,833 in the weeks ahead.
It has been an impressive second-quarter US earnings season, with more than 85 per cent of 470 S&P 500 companies beating estimates. As we approach the tail end of reporting, a few companies are left to report this week, but the most notable will be Salesforce, which is due out later on Wednesday.
And finally, Bitcoin continues its impressive rally this month – breaking through the key $50,000 level earlier on Monday after PayPal said it is now enabling cryptocurrency transactions for its UK clients. Expect cryptocurrency euphoria to continue in the weeks ahead, with downsides in Bitcoin capped at $44,000.
Gaurav Kashyap is head of futures at EGM Futures. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of EGM Futures
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ABU DHABI CARD
5pm: UAE Martyrs Cup (TB) Conditions; Dh90,000; 2,200m
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Handicap; Dh70,000; 1,400m
6pm: UAE Matyrs Trophy (PA) Maiden; Dh80,000; 1,600m
6.30pm: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak (IFAHR) Apprentice Championship (PA) Prestige; Dh100,000; 1,600m
7pm: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak (IFAHR) Ladies World Championship (PA) Prestige; Dh125,000; 1,600m
8pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan Jewel Crown (PA) Group 1; Dh5,000,000; 1,600m
Racecard
5.25pm: Etihad Museum – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,200m
6pm: Al Shindaga Museum – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (Dirt) 1,200m
6.35pm: Poet Al Oqaili – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,400m
7.10pm: Majlis Ghurfat Al Sheif – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,600m
7.45pm: Hatta – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,400m
8.20pm: Al Fahidi – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 2,200m
8.55pm: Zabeel Trophy – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (T) 1,600m
9.30pm: Coins Museum – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,600m
10.05pm: Al Quoz Creative – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,000m
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blow a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
Keir Starmer failed to give her his backing as she cried but later said she would be in the job for 'a long time to come'.
A spokesman said her upset was due to a personal matter.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
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Company%20profile
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Moonfall
Director: Rolan Emmerich
Stars: Patrick Wilson, Halle Berry
Rating: 3/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs: McLaren 600LT
Price, base: Dh914,000
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 600hp @ 7,500rpm
Torque: 620Nm @ 5,500rpm
Fuel economy 12.2.L / 100km
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE%20medallists%20at%20Asian%20Games%202023
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
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John%20Wick%3A%20Chapter%204
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MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
More on animal trafficking
The five pillars of Islam
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
Haircare resolutions 2021
From Beirut and Amman to London and now Dubai, hairstylist George Massoud has seen the same mistakes made by customers all over the world. In the chair or at-home hair care, here are the resolutions he wishes his customers would make for the year ahead.
1. 'I will seek consultation from professionals'
You may know what you want, but are you sure it’s going to suit you? Haircare professionals can tell you what will work best with your skin tone, hair texture and lifestyle.
2. 'I will tell my hairdresser when I’m not happy'
Massoud says it’s better to offer constructive criticism to work on in the future. Your hairdresser will learn, and you may discover how to communicate exactly what you want more effectively the next time.
3. ‘I will treat my hair better out of the chair’
Damage control is a big part of most hairstylists’ work right now, but it can be avoided. Steer clear of over-colouring at home, try and pursue one hair brand at a time and never, ever use a straightener on still drying hair, pleads Massoud.
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
MEDIEVIL%20(1998)
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UJDA CHAMAN
Produced: Panorama Studios International
Directed: Abhishek Pathak
Cast: Sunny Singh, Maanvi Gagroo, Grusha Kapoor, Saurabh Shukla
Rating: 3.5 /5 stars
