Markets appear to have bought into the US Federal Reserve’s view that the recent spike in inflation is “transitory” and the result of reopening economies, which will gradually fade in the coming quarters as activity begins to normalise.
However, the plunge in longer-dated Treasury yields to below 1.4 per cent, from above 1.7 per cent, is the most graphic manifestation of this correction in “reflation trade”. This has resulted in the flattening yield curve catching a number of investors off guard and causing a short squeeze in Treasury futures positions that intensified the drop in yields.
Other technical reasons may also have been at play, among them temporarily falling Treasury supply, with the General Account at the Fed being drawn down steadily to about $750 billion at the end of June, from a balance of above $1.8 trillion in July last year. There have also been developments in money markets, where the Fed’s reverse repo programme is raking in hundreds of billions of dollars – hitting almost $1tn at the end of the second quarter.
The banking sector's huge liquidity balances recycled at the Fed still pose a threat to price stability in the medium term, particularly if banks start lending again to the real economy. But if all the monetary largesse of central banks stays with lenders, the inflationary threat is muted – or even absent – as the additional liquidity won't reach the real economy. Should the stance of lenders change – and there are indications that this is starting to happen – then higher inflation rates could stay with us for longer.
Loan growth started to take off early in the pandemic as the Fed stepped in with more than $2tn in lending and supported the provision of bank loans by temporarily relaxing regulatory requirements. The loan growth rate started to fall in March due to the base effects, with the loan-to-deposit ratio of all US banks reaching 50-year lows.
With the pandemic now arguably in its final stages, thanks to rising vaccination rates in many countries, a return to a pre-pandemic environment should lead to increasing loan growth again, which could serve to maintain the recent spikes in inflation for longer. It is no surprise that the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey in late March found that US banks’ willingness to lend was at its highest in years.
If the vaccines reduce the stress to national health systems, Covid-19-induced restrictions may continue to be relaxed, thereby keeping economic activity underpinned
Tim Fox
There are a number of reasons why banks will now seek to grow their loan books again. Firstly, many households used their additional stimulus-related income to pay back at least some of their existing loans during the pandemic. Secondly, when uncertainty was high during the spring of last year, banks took loan-loss provisions similar to the extent last seen during the global financial crisis of 2008-09, naturally weighing on the propensity to make new loans.
This over-provisioning is now being reversed, with JP Morgan, for example, in the first quarter releasing about half of its loan-loss provisions taken in the prior year. Finally, the steepening yield curve increases the profitability of issuing loans, which are typically refinanced via short-term funding – the classic term transformation of the banking sector.
Meanwhile, another reason for the apparent retreat in bond yields appears to be the fear of renewed lockdowns due to the emergence of new Covid-19 variants. In the past few weeks, news about rising infection rates in countries where vaccination rates are high, such as Israel, the UK and the US, has led some investors to fear a relapse for many economies in the second half of the year due to renewed lockdowns and flare-ups in supply disruptions.
The critical variable will be whether the number of hospitalisations remains muted, which would suggest that while vaccinations may not fully prevent new infections with aggressive variants of the virus, they will drastically reduce the probability of any severe disease progression.
If the vaccines reduce the stress to national health systems, Covid-19-induced restrictions may continue to be relaxed, thereby keeping economic activity underpinned.
As far as this debate is concerned, we appear to be approaching a critical moment as the resolve of governments to resist pressure to lock down again in the coming weeks gets tested – the outcome of which will have a significant bearing over whether the current spike in inflation will, in the end, be as “transitory” as the Fed expects.
Tim Fox is a prominent GCC economist and financial markets analyst, and an adviser to Switzerland-based St Gotthard Fund Management
SPECS%3A%20Polestar%203
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELong-range%20dual%20motor%20with%20400V%20battery%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E360kW%20%2F%20483bhp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E840Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20automatic%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20touring%20range%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20628km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.7sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20210kph%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh360%2C000%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeptember%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20Emperor%20and%20the%20Elephant
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESam%20Ottewill-Soulsby%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPrinceton%20University%20Press%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E392%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJuly%2011%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
More from UAE Human Development Report:
Awar Qalb
Director: Jamal Salem
Starring: Abdulla Zaid, Joma Ali, Neven Madi and Khadija Sleiman
Two stars
More from Armen Sarkissian
NINE WINLESS GAMES
Arsenal 2-2 Crystal Palace (Oct 27, PL)
Liverpool 5-5 Arsenal (Oct 30, EFL)
Arsenal 1-1 Wolves (Nov 02, PL)
Vitoria Guimaraes 1-1 Arsenal (Nov 6, Europa)
Leicester 2-0 Arsenal (Nov 9, PL)
Arsenal 2-2 Southampton (Nov 23, PL)
Arsenal 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt (Nov 28, Europa)
Norwich 2-2 Arsenal (Dec 01, PL)
Arsenal 1-2 Brighton (Dec 05, PL)
Where to donate in the UAE
The Emirates Charity Portal
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
Al Noor Special Needs Centre
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Emirates Airline Foundation
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
Emirates Red Crescent
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Noor Dubai Foundation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
Results:
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 2,200m | Winner: AF Al Montaqem, Bernardo Pinheiro (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,200m | Winner: Daber W’Rsan, Connor Beasley, Jaci Wickham
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh85,000 1,600m | Winner: Bainoona, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m | Winner: AF Makerah, Antonio Fresu, Ernst Oertel
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 | Winner: AF Motaghatres, Antonio Fresu, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh90,000 1,600m | Winner: Tafakhor, Ronan Whelan, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
Company profile
Name: Fruitful Day
Founders: Marie-Christine Luijckx, Lyla Dalal AlRawi, Lindsey Fournie
Based: Dubai, UAE
Founded: 2015
Number of employees: 30
Sector: F&B
Funding so far: Dh3 million
Future funding plans: None at present
Future markets: Saudi Arabia, potentially Kuwait and other GCC countries
More on Quran memorisation:
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Floward%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERiyadh%2C%20Saudi%20Arabia%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbdulaziz%20Al%20Loughani%20and%20Mohamed%20Al%20Arifi%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EE-commerce%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbout%20%24200%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAljazira%20Capital%2C%20Rainwater%20Partners%2C%20STV%20and%20Impact46%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C200%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
Cinco in numbers
Dh3.7 million
The estimated cost of Victoria Swarovski’s gem-encrusted Michael Cinco wedding gown
46
The number, in kilograms, that Swarovski’s wedding gown weighed.
1,000
The hours it took to create Cinco’s vermillion petal gown, as seen in his atelier [note, is the one he’s playing with in the corner of a room]
50
How many looks Cinco has created in a new collection to celebrate Ballet Philippines’ 50th birthday
3,000
The hours needed to create the butterfly gown worn by Aishwarya Rai to the 2018 Cannes Film Festival.
1.1 million
The number of followers that Michael Cinco’s Instagram account has garnered.
