Markets have kicked off July where they left off in June – continuing their upward movement. The gains have been notable particularly in US equities, with all three major indexes trading near record levels.
The move has been particularly curious amid a combination of US dollar strength through June and early July and the emergence of the Covid-19 Delta-plus variant, which is seemingly starting to cast doubts on global growth outlook expectations once again.
Covid-19 cases peaked at 35,000 new cases a day in the UK – the highest since January – and earlier this month, Japan took an aggressive stance towards the surge in coronavirus cases by banning all spectators from the coming Olympics.
This was followed by a US Federal Reserve member stating that one of the biggest risks to global growth may be celebrating a premature victory over Covid-19.
Deteriorating global sentiment as a result of this new Covid-19 variant is perhaps what is mounting pressure on bond yields and these lower yields are, in turn, fuelling equity markets. After hitting a low of 1.25 per cent on July 8, the 10-year Treasury yield is still currently holding below 1.4 per cent.
Despite posting a stellar four months at the start of the year when yields near doubled, the momentum seems to have been curbed.
While the recent move to 1.25 per cent last week may have been overstated, bond yields may continue to trade under pressure as the Fed continues to maintain its extended dovish stance towards future tapering, as stated in the minutes of its latest meeting. This is expected to be reinforced later on Tuesday as Fed chairman Jerome Powell testifies before Congress. Markets expect him to extend the Fed’s dovish stance.
Weakening US yields have come at a time where we are seeing dollar strength. This breakdown in the relationship between the 10-year yield and the greenback will be interesting to monitor.
Bond yields may continue to trade under pressure as the Fed continues to maintain its extended dovish stance towards future tapers
Gaurav Kashyap
While these two asset classes were previously correlated, we have seen a clear break in this trend since early June. The US Dollar Index has come through a bit of buying renaissance in June but I feel the rally may have run out of steam.
Technically, I am watching for 91.90 levels as an initial support level for the US Dollar Index, after which strong support kicks in the channel between 91.30 and 91.40.
This dollar strength is why the EUR/USD moved below $1.19 levels in June on the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange while GBP/USD futures traded below $1.39 levels on the DGCX.
While I expect trading to remain largely range bound through the summer months, I expect the former to stay below $1.20 levels through to August, while the pound should also stay below $1.40 levels against the US dollar until the end of July.
Gold continues to witness volatility. The DGCX gold futures contracts moved back above $1,800 in July after shedding more than 7 per cent in June. The precious metal has been on a roll since, closing seven out of the nine trading sessions higher.
Fundamentally, not much has changed for the precious metal and I see this more as a combination of dollar weakness and a technical correction.
At the time of writing, we are trading at a critical juncture, with gold at $1,806 levels. It is trading at the 200-day exponential moving average. The 50-day EMA seems to converge with the 100-day EMA at $1,813 levels.
This is something to watch for in the next few trading sessions. A conclusive break by the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA will technically put pressure on gold in the short term.
Finally, the earnings season kicks off in the US this week, with the big financial institutions announcing their results. Looking ahead to the rest of the month, after the Bank of Canada’s rate decision on Tuesday we await the European Central Bank’s rate review on July 22, followed by the all-important Fed meeting on July 28.
Gaurav Kashyap is head of futures at EGM Futures. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of EGM Futures
The specs: 2018 Nissan Altima
Price, base / as tested: Dh78,000 / Dh97,650
Engine: 2.5-litre in-line four-cylinder
Power: 182hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 244Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Continuously variable tranmission
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.6L / 100km
more from Janine di Giovanni
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Expert input
If you had all the money in the world, what’s the one sneaker you would buy or create?
“There are a few shoes that have ‘grail’ status for me. But the one I have always wanted is the Nike x Patta x Parra Air Max 1 - Cherrywood. To get a pair in my size brand new is would cost me between Dh8,000 and Dh 10,000.” Jack Brett
“If I had all the money, I would approach Nike and ask them to do my own Air Force 1, that’s one of my dreams.” Yaseen Benchouche
“There’s nothing out there yet that I’d pay an insane amount for, but I’d love to create my own shoe with Tinker Hatfield and Jordan.” Joshua Cox
“I think I’d buy a defunct footwear brand; I’d like the challenge of reinterpreting a brand’s history and changing options.” Kris Balerite
“I’d stir up a creative collaboration with designers Martin Margiela of the mixed patchwork sneakers, and Yohji Yamamoto.” Hussain Moloobhoy
“If I had all the money in the world, I’d live somewhere where I’d never have to wear shoes again.” Raj Malhotra
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
FIXTURES
December 28
Stan Wawrinka v Pablo Carreno Busta, 5pm
Milos Raonic v Dominic Thiem, no earlier then 7pm
December 29 - semi-finals
Rafael Nadal v Stan Wawrinka / Pablo Carreno Busta, 5pm
Novak Djokovic v Milos Raonic / Dominic Thiem, no earlier then 7pm
December 30
3rd/4th place play-off, 5pm
Final, 7pm
Sheikh Zayed's poem
When it is unveiled at Abu Dhabi Art, the Standing Tall exhibition will appear as an interplay of poetry and art. The 100 scarves are 100 fragments surrounding five, figurative, female sculptures, and both sculptures and scarves are hand-embroidered by a group of refugee women artisans, who used the Palestinian cross-stitch embroidery art of tatreez. Fragments of Sheikh Zayed’s poem Your Love is Ruling My Heart, written in Arabic as a love poem to his nation, are embroidered onto both the sculptures and the scarves. Here is the English translation.
Your love is ruling over my heart
Your love is ruling over my heart, even a mountain can’t bear all of it
Woe for my heart of such a love, if it befell it and made it its home
You came on me like a gleaming sun, you are the cure for my soul of its sickness
Be lenient on me, oh tender one, and have mercy on who because of you is in ruins
You are like the Ajeed Al-reem [leader of the gazelle herd] for my country, the source of all of its knowledge
You waddle even when you stand still, with feet white like the blooming of the dates of the palm
Oh, who wishes to deprive me of sleep, the night has ended and I still have not seen you
You are the cure for my sickness and my support, you dried my throat up let me go and damp it
Help me, oh children of mine, for in his love my life will pass me by.
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
'The Ice Road'
Director: Jonathan Hensleigh
Stars: Liam Neeson, Amber Midthunder, Laurence Fishburne
2/5
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Juliot Vinolia’s checklist for adopting alternate-day fasting
- Don’t do it more than once in three days
- Don’t go under 700 calories on fasting days
- Ensure there is sufficient water intake, as the body can go in dehydration mode
- Ensure there is enough roughage (fibre) in the food on fasting days as well
- Do not binge on processed or fatty foods on non-fasting days
- Complement fasting with plant-based foods, fruits, vegetables, seafood. Cut out processed meats and processed carbohydrates
- Manage your sleep
- People with existing gastric or mental health issues should avoid fasting
- Do not fast for prolonged periods without supervision by a qualified expert
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m; Winner: Rawat Al Reef, Adrie de Vries (jockey), Abdallah Al Hammadi (trainer)
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Noof KB, Richard Mullen, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: AF Seven Skies, Bernardo Pinheiro, Qaiss Aboud
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Jabalini, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7pm: UAE Arabian Derby – Prestige (PA) Dh150,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Dergham Athbah, Richard Mullen, Mohamed Daggash
7.30pm: Emirates Championship – Group 1 (PA) Dh1,000,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Somoud, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roualle
8pm: Abu Dhabi Championship – Group 3 (TB) Dh380,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Irish Freedom, Antonio Fresu, Satish Seemar
Results
2.15pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Arrab, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
2.45pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Mahaleel, Antonio Fresu, Ernst Oertel.
3.15pm: Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum handicap (TB) Dh200,000 2,000m; Winner: Dolmen, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
3.45pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m; Winner: Amang Alawda, Sandro Paiva, Bakhit Al Ketbi.
4.15pm: The Crown Prince of Sharjah Cup Prestige (PA) Dh200,000 1,200m; Winner: AF Alwajel, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
4.45pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 2,000m; Winner: Al Jazi, Jesus Rosales, Eric Lemartinel.
RESULTS
6.30pm UAE 1000 Guineas Trial Conditions (TB) US$100,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner Final Song, Christophe Soumillon (jockey), Saeed bin Suroor (trainer).
7.05pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (Turf) 1,000m
Winner Almanaara, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson.
7.40pm Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner Grand Argentier, Brett Doyle, Doug Watson.
8.15pm Meydan Challenge Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner Major Partnership, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.
8.50pm Dubai Stakes Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner Gladiator King, Mickael Barzalona, Satish Seemar.
9.25pm Dubai Racing Club Classic Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,410m
Winner Universal Order, Richard Mullen, David Simcock.
MATCH INFO
First Test at Barbados
West Indies won by 381 runs
Second Test at Antigua
West Indies won by 10 wickets
Third Test at St Lucia
February 9-13
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Mumbai Indians 213/6 (20 ov)
Royal Challengers Bangalore 167/8 (20 ov)
Fifa%20World%20Cup%20Qatar%202022%20
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The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
