The failure of Opec+ to agree on a production increase from August at its most recent meeting this month saw oil prices rise to their highest level in more than two years. Historically, higher oil prices have been welcomed by GCC oil producers as they have allowed governments to increase spending and drive economic growth in the region’s non-oil sectors while also boosting the assets of sovereign wealth funds, which have been invested for future generations.
While higher oil prices have already contributed to higher-than-expected government revenue in the GCC this year, Emirates NBD expects governments in the region to prioritise the reduction of deficits rather than increasing government spending.
Moreover, the benefit to regional budgets depends not only on the price of a barrel of oil but also on how much crude oil is being pumped and sold at that price.
Our analysis of regional budget break-even oil prices suggests that only the UAE would record a budget surplus with oil prices at $75 a barrel this year while Saudi Arabia’s budget would be close to balanced – a significant improvement on last year’s 11.2 per cent budget deficit but one that still offers limited scope to increase spending.
The deficits of other GCC countries are expected to narrow significantly from 2020 but would still require additional financing to meet their existing spending commitments.
Certainly, if Opec+ does not reach an agreement on increasing oil production in the coming weeks, oil prices could rise even further. While this would provide an additional boost to budget revenue, we do not expect this to translate into significantly higher spending in the region, particularly as most countries have committed to medium-term fiscal reforms to reduce their reliance on oil revenue and limit expenditure growth.
Consequently, we do not expect faster non-oil sector growth on the back of sharply higher government spending over the next couple of years.
Higher oil prices may delay some of the necessary fiscal reforms that need to be undertaken to put some of the GCC budgets on a more sustainable footing in the long term.
Moreover, if Opec+ does not agree to gradually increase oil production in the second half of this year, this will probably be negative for headline gross domestic product growth in 2021.
Even with a gradual increase in crude oil production in the second half of the year, oil sector output is expected to be lower than it was in 2020. If there is no increase in production from August, then the contraction in the oil sector of GCC oil-producing countries could be deeper than we currently expect.
The price of higher oil revenue for GCC countries is then slower GDP growth.
For the rest of the world too, there is a cost. Higher oil prices would feed through to higher inflation, which is already surging in many countries as service sectors reopen, supply chains remain disrupted and shipping costs rise.
[We] expect governments in the region to prioritise deficit reduction rather than increasing government spending
Khatija Haque
While the major central banks – the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England – have indicated they will look through what they consider “transitory” inflation for now, some emerging market and European central banks have already responded to higher inflationary pressures by raising interest rates, which could slow economic growth in these markets even as they have yet to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic.
Emirates NBD’s base-case scenario is that Opec+ will come to an agreement that will allow for some increase in oil production from August. This should support oil prices in the current range of $70 to $75.
There are two alternatives that, in our view, have a lower probability. The first is that no agreement is reached and oil production remains unchanged in the coming months and the second is that individual Opec+ members increase production outside of a broad Opec+ agreement.
In the first no-increase scenario, oil prices could rise sharply from where they are now, boosting oil producers’ budget revenue but at the cost of regional and, potentially, global growth.
In the second scenario, where oil producers increase production outside an Opec+ agreement, oil prices could fall sharply from current levels. However, with demand recovering, we are unlikely to see a repeat of the April 2020 price collapse.
Oil prices could fall to between $55 and $65 a barrel in this scenario. Higher oil production would support regional GDP growth while lower oil prices would support global economic growth, even if budget deficits in the GCC would be slightly wider in this scenario than the others.
Khatija Haque is chief economist and head of research at Emirates NBD.
Other ways to buy used products in the UAE
UAE insurance firm Al Wathba National Insurance Company (AWNIC) last year launched an e-commerce website with a facility enabling users to buy car wrecks.
Bidders and potential buyers register on the online salvage car auction portal to view vehicles, review condition reports, or arrange physical surveys, and then start bidding for motors they plan to restore or harvest for parts.
Physical salvage car auctions are a common method for insurers around the world to move on heavily damaged vehicles, but AWNIC is one of the few UAE insurers to offer such services online.
For cars and less sizeable items such as bicycles and furniture, Dubizzle is arguably the best-known marketplace for pre-loved.
Founded in 2005, in recent years it has been joined by a plethora of Facebook community pages for shifting used goods, including Abu Dhabi Marketplace, Flea Market UAE and Arabian Ranches Souq Market while sites such as The Luxury Closet and Riot deal largely in second-hand fashion.
At the high-end of the pre-used spectrum, resellers such as Timepiece360.ae, WatchBox Middle East and Watches Market Dubai deal in authenticated second-hand luxury timepieces from brands such as Rolex, Hublot and Tag Heuer, with a warranty.
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi
From: Dara
To: Team@
Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT
Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East
Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.
Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.
I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.
This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.
It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.
Uber on,
Dara
SERIE A FIXTURES
Friday Sassuolo v Torino (Kick-off 10.45pm UAE)
Saturday Atalanta v Sampdoria (5pm),
Genoa v Inter Milan (8pm),
Lazio v Bologna (10.45pm)
Sunday Cagliari v Crotone (3.30pm)
Benevento v Napoli (6pm)
Parma v Spezia (6pm)
Fiorentina v Udinese (9pm)
Juventus v Hellas Verona (11.45pm)
Monday AC Milan v AS Roma (11.45pm)
MATCH INFO
Scotland 59 (Tries: Hastings (2), G Horne (3), Turner, Seymour, Barclay, Kinghorn, McInally; Cons: Hastings 8)
Russia 0
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
A Long Way Home by Peter Carey
Faber & Faber
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
CABINET%20OF%20CURIOSITIES%20EPISODE%201%3A%20LOT%2036
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGuillermo%20del%20Toro%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tim%20Blake%20Nelson%2C%20Sebastian%20Roche%2C%20Elpidia%20Carrillo%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Yahya Al Ghassani's bio
Date of birth: April 18, 1998
Playing position: Winger
Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Abramovich London
A Kensington Palace Gardens house with 15 bedrooms is valued at more than £150 million.
A three-storey penthouse at Chelsea Waterfront bought for £22 million.
Steel company Evraz drops more than 10 per cent in trading after UK officials said it was potentially supplying the Russian military.
Sale of Chelsea Football Club is now impossible.
Read more about the coronavirus
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Most%20polluted%20cities%20in%20the%20Middle%20East
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In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
