The Covid-19 pandemic is far from over, but 2021 has been a surprisingly good year for investors, continuing last year's recovery.
Trillions of dollars’ worth of global stimulus measures and hopes of a post-lockdown spending spree have powered share prices to new highs, with the US stock market continuing its seemingly endless bull run.
Pretty much every global stock market has benefited, but other asset classes have trailed, notably cryptocurrencies, gold and bonds.
The US
The US stock market led the world for more than a decade and its run of form continued this year. The S&P 500 index of top stocks returned 336 per cent over the past decade and another 14 per cent in the first six months of 2021.
Last summer, iPhone maker Apple became the world’s first $2 trillion company and in June, Microsoft joined it. Amazon isn’t far away at $1.85tn, while Google owner Alphabet is valued at $1.71tn. Facebook has just joined Club Trillion.
The fireworks could continue, Darius McDermott, managing director of FundCalibre, says. “By value, the US market represents about half of all quoted companies in the world and they are among the most dynamic and innovative.”
If President Joe Biden’s $1tn infrastructure spending bill is passed, the country will spend a further $1tn (£730 billion) upgrading roads, bridges, rail networks, water pipes and broadband, turbo-charging growth.
The only time they [valuations] have been more expensive was at the height of the dotcom bubble
Jason Hollands,
managing director of Bestinvest
One worry is that valuations are expensive, says Jason Hollands, managing director of investment platform Bestinvest. “The only time they have been more expensive was at the height of the dotcom bubble.”
Inflation is another concern, as consumer price growth hit 5 per cent in the year to May and is expected to climb higher, which could force the US Federal Reserve to hike interest rates to stop the economy overheating.
Investors ignore the US market at their peril, Mr Hollands says.
“US-listed companies make up 58 per cent of the MSCI AC World Index, with second-placed Japan at just 6 per cent, China third with 4.9 per cent and the UK is fourth at 3.9 per cent,” he adds.
Outlook: The US remains the one to beat but don’t get carried away as it looks pricey and rival stock markets may start to play catch up.
The UK
After more than five years in the doldrums, largely due to Brexit uncertainty, the UK is starting to play catch up.
The FTSE 100 index of top UK blue chips is up 10.9 per cent so far this year, despite a fraught relationship with the EU, and the fast-spreading Covid-19 Delta variant.
Yet, the country has been buoyed by its vaccine success, with more than 45.4 million receiving at least one jab.
Overseas investors have taken note and are tempted by bargain valuations after years of underperformance.
“While the S&P 500 trades at 21.2 times forecast company earnings for the next year, UK companies are notably cheaper at just 13.7 times forecast earnings,” Mr Hollands says.
By value, the US market represents about half of all quoted companies in the world
Darius McDermott,
managing director of FundCalibre
Cash-rich overseas bargain hunters are lining up to put in competing bids for under-priced UK companies, led by US equity funds.
The country’s fourth biggest supermarket chain Morrisons attracted bids from three US private equity funds. Mining, healthcare and consumer goods companies are also top targets.
Foreign investors now own two-thirds of UK-listed shares, according to research from Orient Capital, with US, European and Chinese multinationals leading the charge.
Smaller UK companies have done even better than the blue chips, with the FTSE Small Cap index up 19.4 per cent so far this year.
Outlook: Brexit may not have been a roaring success but it hasn’t been an outright disaster either. At least the argument is largely settled and that allows investors to focus on the financial rather than political issues. The UK is cheap. Let’s hope the Covid-19 Delta variant doesn’t plunge it back into lockdown.
Europe
Europe may have its political and economic worries, but its stock market continues to defy the sceptics.
The MSCI Europe (excluding the UK) index is up an impressive 12.3 per cent so far this year, and Ben Ritchie, head of European equities at Aberdeen Standard Investments, says there could be more to come.
“European companies are well positioned to lead in green technologies, have exposure to fast-growing emerging markets and great intellectual property built up over decades,” he says.
Europe is a leader in consumer brands, pharmaceuticals, luxury and industrial technology, according to Mr Ritchie.
Economic prospects and liquidity conditions are better than elsewhere [in Europe], while equity valuations are reasonable
Luca Paolini,
chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management
The danger is that it may struggle to repeat its strong first half. “Expectations for earnings and economic growth are also high,” he adds.
Favouring Europe, Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management, says: “Economic prospects and liquidity conditions are better than elsewhere, while equity valuations are reasonable.”
Outlook: The European market has shrugged off Brexit and euro concerns to reward shareholders yet again. Not to be underrated.
Emerging Asia and China
Emerging Asian markets have underperformed this year, with the MSCI AC Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) up a modest 5.7 per cent, but Mr Paolini says the region remains attractive.
“It is forecast to grow at twice the rate of the rest of the world over the next five years, with a lower inflation rate,” he says.
Asia's relatively conservative monetary and fiscal response to the Covid-19 crisis means that economies in the region have more policy headroom, he adds.
Many investors are underexposed to Asia, despite its improving growth prospects, low inflation, commitment to reform and an increasingly diversified economy.
Investors can ill afford to ignore this part of the world, Mr Paolini says.
“We expect emerging Asian equities to be the best-performing asset class over the next five years, with returns averaging around 11 per cent a year. Vietnam and India should do particularly well,” he estimates.
Outlook: Asia still looks like a strong long-term bet. Make sure you have some exposure in your portfolio.
Gold
Gold has lost its shine in 2021. It started the year trading at $1,930, below its all-time high of $2,084, hit last August. Today, it stands at $1,805, a drop of 6.5 per cent.
The global economic recovery hit demand for the safe haven, Laith Khalaf, financial analyst at AJ Bell, says.
“Inflation fears haven’t helped, as higher interest rates will increase savings rates and bond yields, while gold does not pay any interest,” Mr Bell says.
This might offer a buying opportunity as gold now looks “massively undervalued”, according to Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst with ThinkMarkets. “Also, the precious metal historically does well during the third quarter.”
Outlook: Gold may regain some of its lost lustre, but investors may need to be patient.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies
It’s been another crazy year for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin started 2021 trading at $29,388, more than doubled to $63,588 in mid-April then crashed by half. At the time of writing, it is hovering around $33,000, squeezed by a Chinese clampdown and the unpredictability of Elon Musk’s Twitter output.
Bitcoin also harbours two dirty secrets. Mining the alt-coin now uses a similar amount of electrical power to Argentina or the Netherlands, worsening climate change, while criminals use it to hide their ill-gotten gains or hold companies to ransom.
Crypto is at a crossroads, Mr Razaqzada says. “The longer we go without the price hitting $40,000, the more likely support will crumble and give way to a sharp move towards $20,000.”
The longer we go without the price hitting $40,000, the more likely support will crumble and give way to a sharp move towards $20,000
Fawad Razaqzada,
a market analyst with ThinkMarkets
Outlook: Nobody knows where Bitcoin and its alt-coin buddies will go next. Only invest if you have money to lose.
Bonds
Bond yields were supposed to soar this year as investors demanded a higher rate of return to offset the threat from rising inflation.
Yet at the time of writing, 10-year US Treasury bonds yield just 1.34 per cent. In the UK, 10-year gilts offer just 0.7 per cent.
Bonds offer portfolio diversification, but it’s hard to be positive given today’s low yields and a global economy that looks like it’s beginning to take off, Mr Khalaf says.
“Inflationary fears have not yet really taken root, keeping yields down,” he adds.
China’s government bonds offer the best return/risk profile, while emerging Asia’s investment grade corporate bonds also look attractive, Mr Paolini says.
Outlook: Inflation remains a concern, but the great bond market sell-off has been averted for yet another year.
'Falling%20for%20Christmas'
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Janeen%20Damian%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EStars%3A%20Lindsay%20Lohan%2C%20Chord%20Overstreet%2C%20Jack%20Wagner%2C%20Aliana%20Lohan%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%201%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
SPECS
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Pad Man
Dir: R Balki
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Sonam Kapoor, Radhika Apte
Three-and-a-half stars
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
How The Debt Panel's advice helped readers in 2019
December 11: 'My husband died, so what happens to the Dh240,000 he owes in the UAE?'
JL, a housewife from India, wrote to us about her husband, who died earlier this month. He left behind an outstanding loan of Dh240,000 and she was hoping to pay it off with an insurance policy he had taken out. She also wanted to recover some of her husband’s end-of-service liabilities to help support her and her son.
“I have no words to thank you for helping me out,” she wrote to The Debt Panel after receiving the panellists' comments. “The advice has given me an idea of the present status of the loan and how to take it up further. I will draft a letter and send it to the email ID on the bank’s website along with the death certificate. I hope and pray to find a way out of this.”
November 26: ‘I owe Dh100,000 because my employer has not paid me for a year’
SL, a financial services employee from India, left the UAE in June after quitting his job because his employer had not paid him since November 2018. He owes Dh103,800 on four debts and was told by the panellists he may be able to use the insolvency law to solve his issue.
SL thanked the panellists for their efforts. "Indeed, I have some clarity on the consequence of the case and the next steps to take regarding my situation," he says. "Hopefully, I will be able to provide a positive testimony soon."
October 15: 'I lost my job and left the UAE owing Dh71,000. Can I return?'
MS, an energy sector employee from South Africa, left the UAE in August after losing his Dh12,000 job. He was struggling to meet the repayments while securing a new position in the UAE and feared he would be detained if he returned. He has now secured a new job and will return to the Emirates this month.
“The insolvency law is indeed a relief to hear,” he says. "I will not apply for insolvency at this stage. I have been able to pay something towards my loan and credit card. As it stands, I only have a one-month deficit, which I will be able to recover by the end of December."
Despacito's dominance in numbers
Released: 2017
Peak chart position: No.1 in more than 47 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and Lebanon
Views: 5.3 billion on YouTube
Sales: With 10 million downloads in the US, Despacito became the first Latin single to receive Diamond sales certification
Streams: 1.3 billion combined audio and video by the end of 2017, making it the biggest digital hit of the year.
Awards: 17, including Record of the Year at last year’s prestigious Latin Grammy Awards, as well as five Billboard Music Awards
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: ten-speed
Power: 420bhp
Torque: 624Nm
Price: Dh325,125
On sale: Now
The Lost Letters of William Woolf
Helen Cullen, Graydon House
Brief scores:
Arsenal 4
Xhaka 25', Lacazette 55', Ramsey 79', Aubameyang 83'
Fulham 1
Kamara 69'
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPHONE%2015%20PRO%20MAX
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'Of Love & War'
Lynsey Addario, Penguin Press
Match info
What: Fifa Club World Cup play-off
Who: Al Ain v Team Wellington
Where: Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
When: Wednesday, kick off 7.30pm
The biog
Profession: Senior sports presenter and producer
Marital status: Single
Favourite book: Al Nabi by Jibran Khalil Jibran
Favourite food: Italian and Lebanese food
Favourite football player: Cristiano Ronaldo
Languages: Arabic, French, English, Portuguese and some Spanish
Website: www.liliane-tannoury.com
Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.
Based: Riyadh
Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany
Founded: September, 2020
Number of employees: 70
Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions
Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds
Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices
Match info
Karnataka Tuskers 110-3
J Charles 35, M Pretorius 1-19, Z Khan 0-16
Deccan Gladiators 111-5 in 8.3 overs
K Pollard 45*, S Zadran 2-18
SPEC%20SHEET
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The biog
Age: 32
Qualifications: Diploma in engineering from TSI Technical Institute, bachelor’s degree in accounting from Dubai’s Al Ghurair University, master’s degree in human resources from Abu Dhabi University, currently third years PHD in strategy of human resources.
Favourite mountain range: The Himalayas
Favourite experience: Two months trekking in Alaska
Dubai World Cup nominations
UAE: Thunder Snow/Saeed bin Suroor (trainer), North America/Satish Seemar, Drafted/Doug Watson, New Trails/Ahmad bin Harmash, Capezzano, Gronkowski, Axelrod, all trained by Salem bin Ghadayer
USA: Seeking The Soul/Dallas Stewart, Imperial Hunt/Luis Carvajal Jr, Audible/Todd Pletcher, Roy H/Peter Miller, Yoshida/William Mott, Promises Fulfilled/Dale Romans, Gunnevera/Antonio Sano, XY Jet/Jorge Navarro, Pavel/Doug O’Neill, Switzerland/Steve Asmussen.
Japan: Matera Sky/Hideyuki Mori, KT Brace/Haruki Sugiyama. Bahrain: Nine Below Zero/Fawzi Nass. Ireland: Tato Key/David Marnane. Hong Kong: Fight Hero/Me Tsui. South Korea: Dolkong/Simon Foster.
Specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.5-litre%20turbo%204-cylinder%20%2F%202.0%20turbo%204-cylinder%20(S3)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20148bhp%20%2F%20328bhp%20(S3)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20250Nm%20%2F%20420Nm%20(S3)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20December%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20TBA%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Scores
Scotland 54-17 Fiji
England 15-16 New Zealand
Where to Find Me by Alba Arikha
Alma Books
The years Ramadan fell in May
MATCH INFO
Chelsea 0
Liverpool 2 (Mane 50', 54')
Red card: Andreas Christensen (Chelsea)
Man of the match: Sadio Mane (Liverpool)
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The Birkin bag is made by Hermès.
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
The specs: 2019 Mini Cooper
Price, base: Dh141,740 (three-door) / Dh165,900 (five-door)
Engine: 1.5-litre four-cylinder (Cooper) / 2.0-litre four-cylinder (Cooper S)
Power: 136hp @ 4,500rpm (Cooper) / 192hp @ 5,000rpm (Cooper S)
Torque: 220Nm @ 1,480rpm (Cooper) / 280Nm @ 1,350rpm (Cooper S)
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 4.8L to 5.4L / 100km
Voy!%20Voy!%20Voy!
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No Shame
Lily Allen
(Parlophone)
PULITZER PRIZE 2020 WINNERS
JOURNALISM
Public Service
Anchorage Daily News in collaboration with ProPublica
Breaking News Reporting
Staff of The Courier-Journal, Louisville, Ky.
Investigative Reporting
Brian M. Rosenthal of The New York Times
Explanatory Reporting
Staff of The Washington Post
Local Reporting
Staff of The Baltimore Sun
National Reporting
T. Christian Miller, Megan Rose and Robert Faturechi of ProPublica
and
Dominic Gates, Steve Miletich, Mike Baker and Lewis Kamb of The Seattle Times
International Reporting
Staff of The New York Times
Feature Writing
Ben Taub of The New Yorker
Commentary
Nikole Hannah-Jones of The New York Times
Criticism
Christopher Knight of the Los Angeles Times
Editorial Writing
Jeffery Gerritt of the Palestine (Tx.) Herald-Press
Editorial Cartooning
Barry Blitt, contributor, The New Yorker
Breaking News Photography
Photography Staff of Reuters
Feature Photography
Channi Anand, Mukhtar Khan and Dar Yasin of the Associated Press
Audio Reporting
Staff of This American Life with Molly O’Toole of the Los Angeles Times and Emily Green, freelancer, Vice News for “The Out Crowd”
LETTERS AND DRAMA
Fiction
"The Nickel Boys" by Colson Whitehead (Doubleday)
Drama
"A Strange Loop" by Michael R. Jackson
History
"Sweet Taste of Liberty: A True Story of Slavery and Restitution in America" by W. Caleb McDaniel (Oxford University Press)
Biography
"Sontag: Her Life and Work" by Benjamin Moser (Ecco/HarperCollins)
Poetry
"The Tradition" by Jericho Brown (Copper Canyon Press)
General Nonfiction
"The Undying: Pain, Vulnerability, Mortality, Medicine, Art, Time, Dreams, Data, Exhaustion, Cancer, and Care" by Anne Boyer (Farrar, Straus and Giroux)
and
"The End of the Myth: From the Frontier to the Border Wall in the Mind of America" by Greg Grandin (Metropolitan Books)
Music
"The Central Park Five" by Anthony Davis, premiered by Long Beach Opera on June 15, 2019
Special Citation
Ida B. Wells
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs: 2018 Maserati Ghibli
Price, base / as tested: Dh269,000 / Dh369,000
Engine: 3.0-litre twin-turbocharged V6
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 355hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 4,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.9L / 100km
And%20Just%20Like%20That...
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STAY%2C%20DAUGHTER
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Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
The%20Roundup%20%3A%20No%20Way%20Out
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