Middle East and Central Asia countries face twin shocks from the coronavirus pandemic and plunging oil prices, but policymakers have been quick in rolling out necessary monetary and fiscal stimulus to support their economies.
The economic impact "will be substantial" the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its Middle East and Central Asia Economic Outlook report released on Wednesday. While MECA economies are projected to contract 2.8 per cent in 2020, most countries will shrink by an average of 3.1 per cent.
Oil price have slumped more than 50 per cent since the beginning of the year and most countries have revised growth down by more than 4 percentage points in one year. This equates to removing $425 billion (Dh1.56 trillion) from the region’s total output. For nearly all countries, these revisions are higher than those seen during the global financial crisis in 2008 and the oil price shock of 2015, according to the IMF report.
"This is a complex multi-layered crisis in this part of the world and while there is uncertainty on the health crisis part and how long that will play out, I think there is tremendous uncertainty about what is going to happen with oil prices now and going forward," IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath told The National.
“Our assumption is that it will be at $35 per barrel for 2020 and 2021 and then go up to about $45," she added.
"It is going to change the economic landscape and it shows the urgency and the need to diversify one’s economy. There were many countries that were already doing the diversification and I think this will accelerate that.”
Countries in the region were swift in their responses to the crisis, taking measures to contain the outbreak and support hard-hit sectors of their economies. Many countries announced fiscal support packages, comprising both revenue and expenditure measures, of an average size of 3.8 per cent of gross domestic product, the IMF said.
Regional central banks were also quick to provide relief to blunt the impact of the outbreak on the financial sector. Liquidity support measures were announced in seven countries averaging 3.4 per cent of gross domestic product. Financial regulators across the region have also eased monetary policy and used the exchange rate as a buffer where appropriate.
The global economy is facing its greatest crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s and is projected to shrink 3 per cent in 2020, the IMF said on Tuesday. The economy will slide into the deepest recession since the end of World War I. The growth forecast for this year is marked down by more than 6 percentage points relative to the fund's October 2019 estimates and the updated January 2020 projections.
"This is a complex multi-layered crisis in this part of the world and while there is uncertainty on the health crisis part and how long that will play out, I think there is tremendous uncertainty about what is going to happen with oil prices now and going forward," IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath
The downward revision for this year is largely a result of advanced economies shrinking 6.1 per cent this year after expanding 1.7 per cent in 2019. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, the Arab world’s largest economy, is forecast to shrink 2.3 per cent. The UAE's economy is projected to contract 3.5 per cent but forecast to expand 3.3 per cent in 2021. Iran’s economy is projected to contract 6 per cent with inflation estimated at 34.2 per cent this year.
The UAE was the first to roll out Dh282bn in fiscal and monetary support, providing zero interest funding to banks in addition to a variety of other initiatives that range from discounted utility bills to waivers of government fees.
Oil-exporting countries are facing a double whammy of reduced demand for crude and lower oil prices, with oil exports expected to drop by more than $250bn across the region, the IMF said.
“As a result, fiscal balances are expected to turn negative, exceeding 10 per cent of GDP in most countries,” the Washington-based lender said.
Oil-importing nations in the region would be adversely affected by a large decline in remittances and investment and capital flows they get from the region’s oil exporters.
“The large deterioration in their fiscal deficit – due to the impact of lower growth on tax revenues and scaled-up spending –is expected to raise public debt to almost 95 per cent of GDP in the Menap [Middle East North Africa and Pakistan] region,” according to the report.
Vulnerabilities, the IMF said, are rising in line with global trends and forthcoming maturing debt presents financing risks in current market conditions. High public debt levels in the region may also limit the fiscal space available to undertake additional measures, it noted.
The IMF, which has already received financial assistance requests from 11 countries in the region, said the objective for every country should be to put its economy back on track. This would require broad-based fiscal and monetary support where policy space is available and seeking external assistance where space is limited.
“The countries that are coming into this with pre-existing vulnerabilities ... they are going to be deeply affected at this time. What will help countries like that is international support,” Ms Gopinath said.
Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStage%207%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Adam%20Yates%20(GBR)%20UAE%20Team%20Emirates%20%E2%80%93%203hrs%2029min%2042ses%3Cbr%3E2.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%20%E2%80%93%2010sec%3Cbr%3E3.%20Geoffrey%20Bouchard%20(FRA)%20AG2R%20Citroen%20Team%20%E2%80%93%2042sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EGeneral%20Classification%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lucas%20Plapp%20(AUS)%20Ineos%20Grenaders%20%E2%80%93%2059se%3Cbr%3E3.%20Adam%20Yates%20(GBR)%20UAE%20Team%20Emirates%20%E2%80%9360sec%3Cbr%3ERed%20Jersey%20(General%20Classification)%3A%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EGreen%20Jersey%20(Points%20Classification)%3A%20Tim%20Merlier%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EWhite%20Jersey%20(Young%20Rider%20Classification)%3A%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EBlack%20Jersey%20(Intermediate%20Sprint%20Classification)%3A%20Edward%20Planckaert%20(FRA)%20Alpecin-Deceuninck%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULTS
%3Cp%3E3.30pm%3A%20Al%20Maktoum%20Challenge%20Round%203%20%E2%80%93%20Group%201%20(PA)%20%2475%2C000%20(Dirt)%202%2C000m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Jugurtha%20De%20Monlau%2C%20Pat%20Dobbs%20(jockey)%2C%20Jean-Claude%20Pecout%20(trainer)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E4.05pm%3A%20Dubai%20City%20Of%20Gold%20%E2%80%93%20Group%202%20(TB)%20%24250%2C000%20(Turf)%202%2C410m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Global%20Storm%2C%20William%20Buick%2C%20Charlie%20Appleby%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E4.40pm%3A%20Burj%20Nahaar%20%E2%80%93%20Group%203%20(TB)%20%24250%2C000%20(D)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Discovery%20Island%2C%20James%20Doyle%2C%20Bhupat%20Seemar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E5.15pm%3A%20Nad%20Al%20Sheba%20Turf%20Sprint%20%E2%80%93%20Group%203%20(TB)%20%24250%2C000%20(T)%201%2C200m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Al%20Dasim%2C%20Mickael%20Barzalona%2C%20George%20Boughey%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E5.50pm%3A%20Al%20Bastakiya%20%E2%80%93%20Listed%20(TB)%20%24170%2C000%20(D)%201%2C900m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Go%20Soldier%20Go%2C%20Adrie%20de%20Vries%2C%20Fawzi%20Nass%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E6.25pm%3A%20Al%20Maktoum%20Challenge%20Round%203%20%E2%80%93%20Group%201%20(TB)%20%24450%2C000%20(D)%202%2C000m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Salute%20The%20Soldier%2C%20Adrie%20de%20Vries%2C%20Fawzi%20Nass%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E7.10pm%3A%20Ras%20Al%20Khor%20%E2%80%93%20Conditions%20(TB)%20%24300%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Al%20Suhail%2C%20William%20Buick%2C%20Charlie%20Appleby%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E7.45pm%3A%20Jebel%20Hatta%20%E2%80%93%20Group%201%20(TB)%20%24350%2C000%20(T)%201%2C800m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Alfareeq%2C%20Dane%20O%E2%80%99Neill%2C%20Charlie%20Appleby%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E8.20pm%3A%20Mahab%20Al%20Shimaal%20%E2%80%93%20Group%203%20(TB)%20%24250%2C000%20(D)%201%2C200m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Sound%20Money%2C%20Mickael%20Barzalona%2C%20Bhupat%20Seemar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Jumanji: The Next Level
Director: Jake Kasdan
Stars: Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, Karen Gillan, Jack Black, Nick Jonas
Two out of five stars
Ahmed Raza
UAE cricket captain
Age: 31
Born: Sharjah
Role: Left-arm spinner
One-day internationals: 31 matches, 35 wickets, average 31.4, economy rate 3.95
T20 internationals: 41 matches, 29 wickets, average 30.3, economy rate 6.28
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
KEY%20DATES%20IN%20AMAZON'S%20HISTORY
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EJuly%205%2C%201994%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jeff%20Bezos%20founds%20Cadabra%20Inc%2C%20which%20would%20later%20be%20renamed%20to%20Amazon.com%2C%20because%20his%20lawyer%20misheard%20the%20name%20as%20'cadaver'.%20In%20its%20earliest%20days%2C%20the%20bookstore%20operated%20out%20of%20a%20rented%20garage%20in%20Bellevue%2C%20Washington%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EJuly%2016%2C%201995%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20formally%20opens%20as%20an%20online%20bookseller.%20%3Cem%3EFluid%20Concepts%20and%20Creative%20Analogies%3A%20Computer%20Models%20of%20the%20Fundamental%20Mechanisms%20of%20Thought%3C%2Fem%3E%20becomes%20the%20first%20item%20sold%20on%20Amazon%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E1997%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20goes%20public%20at%20%2418%20a%20share%2C%20which%20has%20grown%20about%201%2C000%20per%20cent%20at%20present.%20Its%20highest%20closing%20price%20was%20%24197.85%20on%20June%2027%2C%202024%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E1998%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20acquires%20IMDb%2C%20its%20first%20major%20acquisition.%20It%20also%20starts%20selling%20CDs%20and%20DVDs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2000%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20Marketplace%20opens%2C%20allowing%20people%20to%20sell%20items%20on%20the%20website%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2002%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20forms%20what%20would%20become%20Amazon%20Web%20Services%2C%20opening%20the%20Amazon.com%20platform%20to%20all%20developers.%20The%20cloud%20unit%20would%20follow%20in%202006%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2003%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20turns%20in%20an%20annual%20profit%20of%20%2475%20million%2C%20the%20first%20time%20it%20ended%20a%20year%20in%20the%20black%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2005%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20Prime%20is%20introduced%2C%20its%20first-ever%20subscription%20service%20that%20offered%20US%20customers%20free%20two-day%20shipping%20for%20%2479%20a%20year%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2006%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20Unbox%20is%20unveiled%2C%20the%20company's%20video%20service%20that%20would%20later%20morph%20into%20Amazon%20Instant%20Video%20and%2C%20ultimately%2C%20Amazon%20Video%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2007%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon's%20first%20hardware%20product%2C%20the%20Kindle%20e-reader%2C%20is%20introduced%3B%20the%20Fire%20TV%20and%20Fire%20Phone%20would%20come%20in%202014.%20Grocery%20service%20Amazon%20Fresh%20is%20also%20started%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2009%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20introduces%20Amazon%20Basics%2C%20its%20in-house%20label%20for%20a%20variety%20of%20products%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2010%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20The%20foundations%20for%20Amazon%20Studios%20were%20laid.%20Its%20first%20original%20streaming%20content%20debuted%20in%202013%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2011%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20The%20Amazon%20Appstore%20for%20Google's%20Android%20is%20launched.%20It%20is%20still%20unavailable%20on%20Apple's%20iOS%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2014%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20The%20Amazon%20Echo%20is%20launched%2C%20a%20speaker%20that%20acts%20as%20a%20personal%20digital%20assistant%20powered%20by%20Alexa%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2017%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20acquires%20Whole%20Foods%20for%20%2413.7%20billion%2C%20its%20biggest%20acquisition%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2018%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon's%20market%20cap%20briefly%20crosses%20the%20%241%20trillion%20mark%2C%20making%20it%2C%20at%20the%20time%2C%20only%20the%20third%20company%20to%20achieve%20that%20milestone%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
GRAN%20TURISMO
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Neill%20Blomkamp%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20David%20Harbour%2C%20Orlando%20Bloom%2C%20Archie%20Madekwe%2C%20Darren%20Barnet%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Traces%20of%20Enayat
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Iman%20Mersal%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20And%20Other%20Stories%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20240%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Four motivational quotes from Alicia's Dubai talk
“The only thing we need is to know that we have faith. Faith and hope in our own dreams. The belief that, when we keep going we’re going to find our way. That’s all we got.”
“Sometimes we try so hard to keep things inside. We try so hard to pretend it’s not really bothering us. In some ways, that hurts us more. You don’t realise how dishonest you are with yourself sometimes, but I realised that if I spoke it, I could let it go.”
“One good thing is to know you’re not the only one going through it. You’re not the only one trying to find your way, trying to find yourself, trying to find amazing energy, trying to find a light. Show all of yourself. Show every nuance. All of your magic. All of your colours. Be true to that. You can be unafraid.”
“It’s time to stop holding back. It’s time to do it on your terms. It’s time to shine in the most unbelievable way. It’s time to let go of negativity and find your tribe, find those people that lift you up, because everybody else is just in your way.”
Three tips from La Perle's performers
1 The kind of water athletes drink is important. Gwilym Hooson, a 28-year-old British performer who is currently recovering from knee surgery, found that out when the company was still in Studio City, training for 12 hours a day. “The physio team was like: ‘Why is everyone getting cramps?’ And then they realised we had to add salt and sugar to the water,” he says.
2 A little chocolate is a good thing. “It’s emergency energy,” says Craig Paul Smith, La Perle’s head coach and former Cirque du Soleil performer, gesturing to an almost-empty open box of mini chocolate bars on his desk backstage.
3 Take chances, says Young, who has worked all over the world, including most recently at Dragone’s show in China. “Every time we go out of our comfort zone, we learn a lot about ourselves,” she says.
More on Quran memorisation:
PROFILE BOX:
Company/date started: 2015
Founder/CEO: Rami Salman, Rishav Jalan, Ayush Chordia
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Technology, Sales, Voice, Artificial Intelligence
Size: (employees/revenue) 10/ 100,000 downloads
Stage: 1 ($800,000)
Investors: Eight first-round investors including, Beco Capital, 500 Startups, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Hala Fadel, Odin Financial Services, Dubai Angel Investors, Womena, Arzan VC
Why your domicile status is important
Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.
Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born.
UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.
A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.
AS IT STANDS IN POOL A
1. Japan - Played 3, Won 3, Points 14
2. Ireland - Played 3, Won 2, Lost 1, Points 11
3. Scotland - Played 2, Won 1, Lost 1, Points 5
Remaining fixtures
Scotland v Russia – Wednesday, 11.15am
Ireland v Samoa – Saturday, 2.45pm
Japan v Scotland – Sunday, 2.45pm
Company name: Farmin
Date started: March 2019
Founder: Dr Ali Al Hammadi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: AgriTech
Initial investment: None to date
Partners/Incubators: UAE Space Agency/Krypto Labs
The drill
Recharge as needed, says Mat Dryden: “We try to make it a rule that every two to three months, even if it’s for four days, we get away, get some time together, recharge, refresh.” The couple take an hour a day to check into their businesses and that’s it.
Stick to the schedule, says Mike Addo: “We have an entire wall known as ‘The Lab,’ covered with colour-coded Post-it notes dedicated to our joint weekly planner, content board, marketing strategy, trends, ideas and upcoming meetings.”
Be a team, suggests Addo: “When training together, you have to trust in each other’s abilities. Otherwise working out together very quickly becomes one person training the other.”
Pull your weight, says Thuymi Do: “To do what we do, there definitely can be no lazy member of the team.”
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday (UAE kick-off times)
Cologne v Hoffenheim (11.30pm)
Saturday
Hertha Berlin v RB Leipzig (6.30pm)
Schalke v Fortuna Dusseldof (6.30pm)
Mainz v Union Berlin (6.30pm)
Paderborn v Augsburg (6.30pm)
Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund (9.30pm)
Sunday
Borussia Monchengladbach v Werder Bremen (4.30pm)
Wolfsburg v Bayer Leverkusen (6.30pm)
SC Freiburg v Eintracht Frankfurt (9on)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 4 (Gundogan 8' (P), Bernardo Silva 19', Jesus 72', 75')
Fulham 0
Red cards: Tim Ream (Fulham)
Man of the Match: Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City)
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Walls
Louis Tomlinson
3 out of 5 stars
(Syco Music/Arista Records)
Results
6.30pm: Dubai Millennium Stakes Group Three US$200,000 (Turf) 2,000m; Winner: Ghaiyyath, William Buick (jockey), Charlie Appleby (trainer).
7.05pm: Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Cliffs Of Capri, Tadhg O’Shea, Jamie Osborne.
7.40pm: UAE Oaks Group Three $250,000 (Dirt) 1,900m; Winner: Down On Da Bayou, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer.
8.15pm: Zabeel Mile Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Zakouski, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby.
8.50pm: Meydan Sprint Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,000m; Winner: Waady, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson.
Tips to stay safe during hot weather
- Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
- Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
- Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
- Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
- Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
- Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
- Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
