The unveiling of a raft of new projects in the UAE in recent months has raised questions about whether population and visitor growth is sufficient to soak up the extra supply.
From Mall of the World in Dubai, billed as the world's largest retail destination, to Al Raha Beach East in Abu Dhabi, a mixed-use scheme to be built using reclaimed land, the number of new project announcements has reached its highest since before the 2009 financial crisis.
About US$212 billion in projects was under construction in the UAE, the research company Business Monitor International estimated in May.
Developers and officials argue the new schemes are needed to help meet surging demand from new residents and tourists, especially in Dubai. But economists worry about the risks attached to the scale of new development.
"We've seen a lot of new projects announced in Dubai over the past few months, but with very few details regarding timing and financing, so it is hard to tell how advanced the plans are and how likely they are to come to light," said Farouk Soussa, the chief economist for the Middle East and North Africa at Citigroup. "Assuming they all do, then we consider the risk of oversupply in the market to be significant."
A glut of projects was unveiled before 2009, but once the global downturn hit a credit freeze a loss of investor confidence led to many either being delayed or cancelled altogether. The ensuing meltdown prompted a debt crisis that slowed the economy.
This time, the government says the delivery of new projects will be closely monitored to match supply to demand. In Dubai, officials said in March the Dubai Urban Plan 2020 would be reviewed in light of the winning bid to host the World Expo 2020. The current plan envisages for the population to grow to between 2.8 and 3.2 million. The population reached 2.2 million people last year. It is also forecasting 25 million visitors, 70 per cent of which would be from abroad, over the course of the six-month event.
In Abu Dhabi, the Economic Vision 2030 and Urban Planning Vision 2030 report, compiled jointly by the Abu Dhabi Council for Economic Development and the Abu Dhabi Urban Planning Council, forecasts the emirate's population to more than double to 2 million by 2020 from 930,000 in 2007. Tourist numbers will reach 4.9 million by 2020, more than double the 1.8 million level of 2007. But the population forecasts could change as officials review the estimates for the city of Abu Dhabi for the next five years, according to a person familiar with the matter. Nobody was available to comment from either Dubai Municipality, which is responsible for the Dubai Urban Plan 2020, or the Abu Dhabi Urban Planning Council.
Fitch Ratings, the credit ratings agency, is forecasting a population growth for the whole of the UAE of 6 per cent per year between now and 2016.
"There was a rapid growth up to 2009 and then population growth fell off quite dramatically for a few years. The population growth we are forecasting is up on previous years but we're not at the same level as the pre-crisis era," said Paul Gamble, the director of the sovereign group at Fitch.
Mr Gamble is also unsure about the positive effect on visitor numbers of the expo event.
"It's unlikely to generate a massive new influx of tourists as the event may displace regular tourists," he said. "There may be a modest gain in visitor numbers, but not huge."
The IMF has repeatedly warned Dubai of the risks attached to building too many megaprojects too quickly. If not delivered prudently, these projects could exacerbate the risk of a real estate bubble, it warned in January. Residential prices in some areas of Dubai have already surpassed their previous peak reached in 2008. The pace of growth in prices slowed in the first quarter, partly as a result of government measures to try to curb speculation in the market. But concerns remain.
"The future direction of prices hinges on the level and pace of new supply coming to the market, which is significant in Dubai and less so in Abu Dhabi," said Trevor Cullinan, the director of sovereign ratings at Standard & Poor's, another credit rating agency.
There is also the risk of developers becoming saddled with fresh debt after only recently resolving debt burdens amassed in the aftermath of the 2009 crisis. Dubai's government-related entities have about US$60bn in debt falling due between 2013 and 2017, estimated the IMF.
tarnold@thenational.ae
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Shubh Mangal Saavdhan
Directed by: RS Prasanna
Starring: Ayushmann Khurrana, Bhumi Pednekar
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Alaan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Parthi%20Duraisamy%20and%20Karun%20Kurien%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%247%20million%20raised%20in%20total%20%E2%80%94%20%242.5%20million%20in%20a%20seed%20round%20and%20%244.5%20million%20in%20a%20pre-series%20A%20round%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Indoor Cricket World Cup Dubai 2017
Venue Insportz, Dubai; Admission Free
Day 1 fixtures (Saturday)
Men 1.45pm, Malaysia v Australia (Court 1); Singapore v India (Court 2); UAE v New Zealand (Court 3); South Africa v Sri Lanka (Court 4)
Women Noon, New Zealand v South Africa (Court 3); England v UAE (Court 4); 5.15pm, Australia v UAE (Court 3); England v New Zealand (Court 4)
MATCH INFO
Iceland 0 England 1 (Sterling pen 90 1)
Man of the match Kari Arnason (Iceland)
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
%3Cp%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenationalnews.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fislamic-economy-consumer-spending-to-increase-45-to-3-2tn-by-2024-1.936583%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EGlobal%20Islamic%20economy%20to%20grow%203.1%25%20to%20touch%20%242.4%20trillion%20by%202024%3C%2Fa%3E%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenationalnews.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fuk-economy-plunges-into-worst-ever-recession-after-record-20-4-contraction-1.1062560%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EUK%20economy%20plunges%20into%20worst-ever%20recession%20after%20record%2020.4%25%20contraction%3C%2Fa%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenationalnews.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fislamic-economy-consumer-spending-to-increase-45-to-3-2tn-by-2024-1.936583%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EIslamic%20economy%20consumer%20spending%20to%20increase%2045%25%20to%20%243.2tn%20by%202024%3C%2Fa%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The specs: 2019 BMW X4
Price, base / as tested: Dh276,675 / Dh346,800
Engine: 3.0-litre turbocharged in-line six-cylinder
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 354hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 1,550rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 9.0L / 100km
Company profile
Company: Rent Your Wardrobe
Date started: May 2021
Founder: Mamta Arora
Based: Dubai
Sector: Clothes rental subscription
Stage: Bootstrapped, self-funded
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Key Points
- Protests against President Omar Al Bashir enter their sixth day
- Reports of President Bashir's resignation and arrests of senior government officials
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Karwaan
Producer: Ronnie Screwvala
Director: Akarsh Khurana
Starring: Irrfan Khan, Dulquer Salmaan, Mithila Palkar
Rating: 4/5
