A man walks past an electronic display board showing the FTSE 100 share index in London.
A man walks past an electronic display board showing the FTSE 100 share index in London.

World markets plunge on recession fears



Plunging US stock futures triggered a trading halt ? an hour and a half before the market opened ? signalling a sharply lower opening on Wall Street amid a global market rout. Around 1200 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 550 points, or 6.27 per cent, to 8,224 points, as panicked investors around the world sold off stocks on recession fears. The broad-market Standard & Poor's 500 futures shed 60 points, or 6.56 per cent, to 855.20 points. Trading was frozen as futures hit their maximum drops allowed by the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) and CME, where they are traded. Global markets sank, with London losing more than nine per cent as it struck a five-year low on news that Britain's economy shrank in the third quarter, placing it perilously close to a recession. Germany's benchmark DAX index was down 10.76 per cent, while France's CAC40 dropped 10 per cent. The dour outlook convinced investors that the world economy is headed for a long and severe downturn despite a raft of government rescue efforts aimed at pulling the financial system from the brink. It also indicated that the tremors caused by the global credit crisis may have only begun to be felt in their true scope and magnitude. "There's a lot of panic out there today," said Scott Fullman, the director of derivatives investment strategy for WJB Capital Group in New York. "People have been saying that we're in a recession. This is the realisation." Opec's decision today to slash its oil output failed to shore up the price of oil, which plummeted in a gathering storm of recession. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces 40 per cent of world crude, announced a cut to production in a bid to support crude prices which "have witnessed a dramatic collapse - unprecedented in speed and magnitude," according to an official statement.

Yet after the cartel agreed to slash output to 27.3 million barrels per day, the price of Brent North Sea crude sank close to US$61, the lowest point for 17 months. Crude futures in London and New York have plunged close to 60 per cent from record highs of above $147 a barrel reached only three months ago when supply concerns sent prices soaring. "Crude oil is heading lower again... on fears that the (Opec) cut might not be sufficient to compensate the shortfall of demand due to a global recession," said the Dresdner Kleinwort analyst Peter Fertig.

Opec said in its statement published alongside its decision to cut production that "the financial crisis is already having a noticeable impact on the world economy, dampening the demand for energy, in general, and oil in particular". "Moreover, forecasts indicate that the fall in demand will deepen, despite the approach of winter in the northern hemisphere." Opec added that its decision would be reviewed at its next meeting in Oran, Algeria, on Dec 17.

In the meantime the cartel said it "cannot be expected to bear alone the burden of restoring equilibrium (between oil supply and demand)," calling on "non-Opec producers/exporters to contribute to efforts to restore prices to reasonable levels and eliminate harmful and unnecessary fluctuations". Russia is the largest non-Opec oil producer and ahead of today's meeting the Russian president Dmitry Medvedev told the cartel's secretary general that he wanted closer co-operation with the organisation.

*AFP/AP

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Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham

Rating: 3.5/5

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Sri Lanka squad for tri-nation series

Angelo Mathews (c), Upul Tharanga, Danushka Gunathilaka, Kusal Mendis, Dinesh Chandimal, Kusal Janith Perera, Thisara Perera, Asela Gunaratne, Niroshan Dickwella, Suranga Lakmal, Nuwan Pradeep, Dushmantha Chameera, Shehan Madushanka, Akila Dananjaya, Lakshan Sandakan and Wanidu Hasaranga

The biog

Name: Salem Alkarbi

Age: 32

Favourite Al Wasl player: Alexandre Oliveira

First started supporting Al Wasl: 7

Biggest rival: Al Nasr

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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