Value shares are a better way to bet on a Covid-19 vaccine than cyclical stocks, even though the latter have gained favour for capturing the trade, according to Goldman Sachs.
Value shares beat their growth counterparts by more than 3 percentage points over the August 22 to September 8 period, when the chances of a vaccine available by the first quarter of 2021 jumped to about 70 per cent from around 40 per cent, Goldman strategists wrote in a note. Cyclical shares underperformed defensive ones, they said.
Value stocks tend to have short-duration cash flows, so will outperform as rates rise, while cyclical and defensive stocks have similar duration on average, Goldman said, to explain the lack of correlation with vaccine odds.
“The consensus view of investors is cyclicals will outperform when a vaccine is identified,” the strategists wrote. “However, the correlation of returns with the prospects for a vaccine suggest value rather than cyclicals is the better tactical expression of this view.”
Value stocks have underperformed growth for years, with the Russell 1000 Value Index up about 7 per cent since the end of 2016 while the growth gauge has doubled. Many a strategist called for a reversal in recent months, and while multiple moves in that direction failed to generate much momentum, this month may be different as tech high-fliers suffer a pullback.
Food, beverage and tobacco is the sector that has the highest correlation with vaccine odds, Goldman said. Technology, hardware and equipment, semiconductors and retailing are the most negatively correlated with vaccine optimism. Some traditionally cyclical industries like materials and capital goods are among the most correlated.
Vaccine catalysts may coincide with the upcoming US election, which may also provide a tailwind to value in the near term, the strategists said.
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A Prayer Before Dawn
Director: Jean-Stephane Sauvaire
Starring: Joe Cole, Somluck Kamsing, Panya Yimmumphai
Three stars
Miss Granny
Director: Joyce Bernal
Starring: Sarah Geronimo, James Reid, Xian Lim, Nova Villa
3/5
(Tagalog with Eng/Ar subtitles)
What is Folia?
Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed bin Talal's new plant-based menu will launch at Four Seasons hotels in Dubai this November. A desire to cater to people looking for clean, healthy meals beyond green salad is what inspired Prince Khaled and American celebrity chef Matthew Kenney to create Folia. The word means "from the leaves" in Latin, and the exclusive menu offers fine plant-based cuisine across Four Seasons properties in Los Angeles, Bahrain and, soon, Dubai.
Kenney specialises in vegan cuisine and is the founder of Plant Food Wine and 20 other restaurants worldwide. "I’ve always appreciated Matthew’s work," says the Saudi royal. "He has a singular culinary talent and his approach to plant-based dining is prescient and unrivalled. I was a fan of his long before we established our professional relationship."
Folia first launched at The Four Seasons Hotel Los Angeles at Beverly Hills in July 2018. It is available at the poolside Cabana Restaurant and for in-room dining across the property, as well as in its private event space. The food is vibrant and colourful, full of fresh dishes such as the hearts of palm ceviche with California fruit, vegetables and edible flowers; green hearb tacos filled with roasted squash and king oyster barbacoa; and a savoury coconut cream pie with macadamia crust.
In March 2019, the Folia menu reached Gulf shores, as it was introduced at the Four Seasons Hotel Bahrain Bay, where it is served at the Bay View Lounge. Next, on Tuesday, November 1 – also known as World Vegan Day – it will come to the UAE, to the Four Seasons Resort Dubai at Jumeirah Beach and the Four Seasons DIFC, both properties Prince Khaled has spent "considerable time at and love".
There are also plans to take Folia to several more locations throughout the Middle East and Europe.
While health-conscious diners will be attracted to the concept, Prince Khaled is careful to stress Folia is "not meant for a specific subset of customers. It is meant for everyone who wants a culinary experience without the negative impact that eating out so often comes with."
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Usain Bolt's time for the 100m at major championships
2008 Beijing Olympics 9.69 seconds
2009 Berlin World Championships 9.58
2011 Daegu World Championships Disqualified
2012 London Olympics 9.63
2013 Moscow World Championships 9.77
2015 Beijing World Championships 9.79
2016 Rio Olympics 9.81
2017 London World Championships 9.95
Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster who has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
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Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
