Stocks in the UAE hit a three-month high yesterday after a government minister predicted the economy would expand this year, countering widespread expectations of a contraction.
The country's economy is on track to achieve 3 per cent growth by the end of the year, with the recovery propelled by the private sector, according to Sheikha Lubna Al Qasimi, the Minister of Foreign Trade.
The forecast, one of the most upbeat to be made by a minister this year, comes after comments from Sultan al Mansouri, the Minister of Economy, who said the country's economy would start to grow again by the fourth quarter of this year.
But the assessment that the UAE is close to following other economies out of a severe downturn contrasts sharply with the predictions of the IMF and most local economists, who expect to see the economy contract this year.
The IMF said in May that growth in the Middle East this year would halve, and that the UAE economy would contract 0.6 per cent. That is still better than an expected 1.3 per cent contraction in the global economy.
EFG-Hermes offers the bleakest forecast among local banks, predicting a contraction of 4 per cent this year. Credit Suisse sees a 2.5 per cent decline in the economy, while a 1.1 per cent contraction is forecast by National Bank of Abu Dhabi.
HSBC has a more optimistic view, predicting growth of 1.5 per cent this year, while Standard Chartered also expects the economy to end the year in positive territory.
"We forecast 0.5 per cent growth this year, more conservative than the government estimate," said Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, a senior economist at Standard Chartered in Dubai. "Government stimulus packages and a boost in government spending have helped boost the economy this year."
Turmoil in global financial markets and declining oil revenues contributed to dragging the UAE into the world economic crisis at the end of last year, while tumbling property prices this year have dampened hopes of an early rebound.
The latest predictions of economic growth may mask substantial differences between emirates, analysts say. "We have to make a difference between Dubai and Abu Dhabi," Mr Dauba-Pantanacce said. "Abu Dhabi is leading the growth and making up for Dubai, where the economy will be more sluggish in 2009."
In an effort to revive the UAE economy, the Government unveiled financial stimulus packages amounting to US$52.6 billion (Dh193.2bn) between July last year and July this year, according to data published by the American research firm Grail Research.
This included a $20bn bond programme for Dubai, which has been particularly hard hit by falling property prices.
Sheikha Lubna praised the role of local, regional and multinational companies, as well as business councils, in driving trade and economic success in the UAE, in a speech last week in Dubai, according to the WAM news agency.
The country expects to record investment income of about Dh40.6bn this year, surpassing last year's Dh30.6bn.
Sheikha Lubna said the country's seventh place in a recent Nielsen survey of global consumer confidence was evidence that confidence was returning.
Mr al Mansouri said last month that key indicators showed that economic growth would be back on track by the last quarter of this year and the start of next year.
But some analysts remain sceptical of such a swift economic turnaround. "I think most likely for the year we are looking at just slightly above flat growth on a good note," said Robert McKinnon at Al Mal Capital. "But there's always the buffer for the UAE economy of oil."
The countries that have been leading the global exit out of economic contraction are Japan, Germany, France and Australia, which all recorded growth in the second quarter of this year.
Other predictions of growth are also emerging from economies in the Gulf region. Saudi Arabia is expected to see a recovery in the fourth quarter, the Riyadh-based Jadwa Investment said yesterday.
"Confidence is rising and growth should pick up modestly over the remainder of the year," it said.
tarnold@thenational.ae
Marathon results
Men:
1. Titus Ekiru(KEN) 2:06:13
2. Alphonce Simbu(TAN) 2:07:50
3. Reuben Kipyego(KEN) 2:08:25
4. Abel Kirui(KEN) 2:08:46
5. Felix Kemutai(KEN) 2:10:48
Women:
1. Judith Korir(KEN) 2:22:30
2. Eunice Chumba(BHR) 2:26:01
3. Immaculate Chemutai(UGA) 2:28:30
4. Abebech Bekele(ETH) 2:29:43
5. Aleksandra Morozova(RUS) 2:33:01
THE%20SWIMMERS
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57%20Seconds
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rusty%20Cundieff%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJosh%20Hutcherson%2C%20Morgan%20Freeman%2C%20Greg%20Germann%2C%20Lovie%20Simone%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Results
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 Group 1 (PA) US$75,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Ziyadd, Richard Mullen (jockey), Jean de Roualle (trainer).
7.05pm: Al Rashidiya Group 2 (TB) $250,000 (Turf) 1,800m
Winner: Barney Roy, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
7.40pm: Meydan Cup Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,810m
Winner: Secret Advisor, Tadhg O’Shea, Charlie Appleby.
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Plata O Plomo, Carlos Lopez, Susanne Berneklint.
8.50pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: Salute The Soldier, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass.
9.25pm: Al Shindagha Sprint Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Gladiator King, Mickael Barzalona, Satish Seemar.
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Profile of MoneyFellows
Founder: Ahmed Wadi
Launched: 2016
Employees: 76
Financing stage: Series A ($4 million)
Investors: Partech, Sawari Ventures, 500 Startups, Dubai Angel Investors, Phoenician Fund
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
More from Aya Iskandarani
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Temple numbers
Expected completion: 2022
Height: 24 meters
Ground floor banquet hall: 370 square metres to accommodate about 750 people
Ground floor multipurpose hall: 92 square metres for up to 200 people
First floor main Prayer Hall: 465 square metres to hold 1,500 people at a time
First floor terrace areas: 2,30 square metres
Temple will be spread over 6,900 square metres
Structure includes two basements, ground and first floor
Paris%20Agreement
%3Cp%3EArticle%2014%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E1.%20%5BThe%20Cop%5D%20shall%20periodically%20take%20stock%20of%20the%20implementation%20of%20this%20Agreement%20to%20assess%20the%20collective%20progress%20towards%20achieving%20the%20purpose%20of%20this%20Agreement%20and%20its%20long-term%20goals%20(referred%20to%20as%20the%20%22global%20stocktake%22)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E2.%20%5BThe%20Cop%5D%20shall%20undertake%20its%20first%20global%20stocktake%20in%202023%20and%20every%20five%20years%20thereafter%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Final scores
18 under: Tyrrell Hatton (ENG)
- 14: Jason Scrivener (AUS)
-13: Rory McIlroy (NIR)
-12: Rafa Cabrera Bello (ESP)
-11: David Lipsky (USA), Marc Warren (SCO)
-10: Tommy Fleetwood (ENG), Chris Paisley (ENG), Matt Wallace (ENG), Fabrizio Zanotti (PAR)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20Z%20FOLD5
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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
Scoreline
Liverpool 3
Mane (7'), Salah (69'), Firmino (90')
Bournemouth 0
The Comeback: Elvis And The Story Of The 68 Special
Simon Goddard
Omnibus Press
