For some Philippine money managers, it’s still too soon to scoop up shares in the world’s worst-performing stock market.
As the Philippine Stock Exchange Index dipped below 7,100 during the session on Tuesday, taking its valuation to its lowest level since January 2016, Metropolitan Bank & Trust is among the firms that’s staying on the sidelines.
John Padilla, the head of equities at the money manager, says he’s too concerned about the high inflation level, rising oil prices, weakening peso, increasing interest rates and drying up liquidity.
“Everybody is bracing and positioning for a higher inflation, and with oil continuing its climb there isn’t anything to say that’s enticing to go bargain hunting at this point,” says Mr Padilla, who helps manage 450 billion pesos (Dh30.47bn). “It used to be that a buy-on-weakness strategy works, but now for prudence it’s better to step aside and let the market take its course.”
The Philippine Stock Exchange has plunged 17 per cent since the end of December, becoming the world’s biggest losing equity market and taking its valuation to 15 times estimated earnings for the next year, below its five-year average. The gauge fell as much as 0.5 per cent to 7,095.26 on Wednesday.
The recent sell-off from emerging markets and US-China trade frictions only added to worries over the nation’s headwinds. Overseas investors have withdrawn almost $1.6bn in 2018, exceeding inflows from the past four years.
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Mr Padilla says it’s not improbable for the Philippine stock gauge to fall below 7,000 in the near term and that it could go as low as 6,600. He said his firm will change its underweight call on the equities should consumer prices, the peso, interest rates and liquidity show improvements. September inflation data is due on Friday.
“You can get a better return with your cash in time deposit now rather than exposing it to equities, where at best you get a flat return but run the risk of losing part of your money if you buy the wrong name,” Mr Padilla says.
The country’s shares will face more challenges before things get better, according to Michael Enriquez, the chief investment officer of Sun Life of Canada Philippines. The PSEi could stay at around 7,100 this year, with earnings growth of 5.5 per cent compared with 10 per cent to 12 per cent consensus, he says. To put that into perspective, the key stock gauge closed at almost 8,559 at the end of last year.
Steven Ko, who helps manage 60bn pesos at Rizal Commercial Banking, sees further risk as limited. While the benchmark index may drop to 6,900, he says there’s also a chance it could climb to 8,000 this year as sentiment improves. He expects inflation to peak and says the peso may have already seen its sharpest depreciation this year.
“We are still holding on to our cash, but we are selectively buying some of the oversold names that are already worth looking into,” Mr Ko says. He favours property stocks because he sees higher earnings-growth prospects and likes banks as he deems them unduly hit by the rout.
Property stocks are still in vogue despite the most aggressive interest-rate tightening in the Philippines in 18 years.
Traders at Security Bank and ATR Asset Management said earlier this month that they are sticking with their overweight position for the sector, even as the central bank has jacked up policy rates by 150 basis points over four months. SM Prime Holdings Iand Ayala Land are among preferred builders on bets the tightening will not lead to a jump in mortgage rates and discourage home buyers.
“Favouring property stocks at a time of rising interest rates seems a paradox,” said Noel Reyes, who helps manage $1bn as chief investment officer at Security Bank. “But this is an extraordinary situation since foreign inflows are helping drive residential sales and office leasing. The weaker peso has given foreigners and overseas Filipinos the firepower to buy property.”
Chinese buyers, foreigners and families of overseas Filipinos have been a driving force for the market: SM Prime, the biggest home builder by market value and largest mall owner, sourced 80 per cent of its first-half reservation sales from the two latter groups. And most of the offshore online gaming licenses issued by the Philippines since President Rodrigo Duterte assumed office two years ago went to investors catering to gamblers from the mainland.
As a result, home-reservation sales jumped 23 per cent to 215 billion pesos in the first half of the year for the nation’s six biggest developers, AP Securities data show. Developers listed on the Philippine exchange delivered 16 per cent growth in second-quarter earnings, one of the best sectors, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on median income growth results from the companies.
While that’s not prevented the sector’s shares from falling, it’s certainly helped.
* Bloomberg
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
COMPANY%20PROFILE%3A
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THE SPECS
Touareg Highline
Engine: 3.0-litre, V6
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Power: 340hp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh239,312
Results
6pm: Dubai Trophy – Conditions (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 1,200m
Winner: Silent Speech, William Buick (jockey), Charlie Appleby
(trainer)
6.35pm: Jumeirah Derby Trial – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (T)
1,800m
Winner: Island Falcon, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor
7.10pm: UAE 2000 Guineas Trial – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (Dirt)
1,400m
Winner: Rawy, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer
7.45pm: Al Rashidiya – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner: Desert Fire, Hector Crouch, Saeed bin Suroor
8.20pm: Al Fahidi Fort – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Naval Crown, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
8.55pm: Dubawi Stakes – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Al Tariq, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watsons
9.30pm: Aliyah – Rated Conditions (TB) $80,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Dubai Icon, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Museum of the Future in numbers
- 78 metres is the height of the museum
- 30,000 square metres is its total area
- 17,000 square metres is the length of the stainless steel facade
- 14 kilometres is the length of LED lights used on the facade
- 1,024 individual pieces make up the exterior
- 7 floors in all, with one for administrative offices
- 2,400 diagonally intersecting steel members frame the torus shape
- 100 species of trees and plants dot the gardens
- Dh145 is the price of a ticket
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
If you go…
Emirates launched a new daily service to Mexico City this week, flying via Barcelona from Dh3,995.
Emirati citizens are among 67 nationalities who do not require a visa to Mexico. Entry is granted on arrival for stays of up to 180 days.
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (c), Chamani Senevirathne (vc), Subha Srinivasan, NIsha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Esha Oza, Ishani Senevirathne, Heena Hotchandani, Keveesha Kumari, Judith Cleetus, Chavi Bhatt, Namita D’Souza.
more from Janine di Giovanni
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
UK's plans to cut net migration
Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.
Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.
But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.
Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.
Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.
The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.
Innotech Profile
Date started: 2013
Founder/CEO: Othman Al Mandhari
Based: Muscat, Oman
Sector: Additive manufacturing, 3D printing technologies
Size: 15 full-time employees
Stage: Seed stage and seeking Series A round of financing
Investors: Oman Technology Fund from 2017 to 2019, exited through an agreement with a new investor to secure new funding that it under negotiation right now.
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
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MOST%20POLLUTED%20COUNTRIES%20IN%20THE%20WORLD
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Gulf Under 19s final
Dubai College A 50-12 Dubai College B
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Stan%20Lee
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The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
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Frankenstein in Baghdad
Ahmed Saadawi
Penguin Press
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The essentials
What: Emirates Airline Festival of Literature
When: Friday until March 9
Where: All main sessions are held in the InterContinental Dubai Festival City
Price: Sessions range from free entry to Dh125 tickets, with the exception of special events.
Hot Tip: If waiting for your book to be signed looks like it will be timeconsuming, ask the festival’s bookstore if they have pre-signed copies of the book you’re looking for. They should have a bunch from some of the festival’s biggest guest authors.
Information: www.emirateslitfest.com
The biog
Profession: Senior sports presenter and producer
Marital status: Single
Favourite book: Al Nabi by Jibran Khalil Jibran
Favourite food: Italian and Lebanese food
Favourite football player: Cristiano Ronaldo
Languages: Arabic, French, English, Portuguese and some Spanish
Website: www.liliane-tannoury.com
ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
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