Global growth has been above trend since mid-2016 and, combined with high business confidence and low rates, is likely to support strong fixed asset investment in the year ahead.
Fourth-quarter GDP firmed to 3.4 per cent in the US, 2.9 per cent in the eurozone, 2.5 per cent in Japan, 6.3 per cent in China and 2 per cent in the UK. Activity indicators this month remain upbeat and indicate 2018 is likely to bring further support for corporate profitability in all major equity markets. The breadth of positive macroeconomic data points gives us confidence that, in the absence of adverse shocks, the momentum will be hard to derail.
As we enter the second year of synchronised strength, labour markets in the developed world are tight and unemployment rates are fast approaching their lowest level since the 1970s. Ten years on from the global financial crisis, sentiment readings indicate that households and businesses are slowly returning to more normal spending behaviour, which should promote higher wages as remaining slack in the economy is exhausted.
The acceleration in global goods demand and production has pushed capacity utilisation towards previous peaks. After three years of falling global business spending, the age of fixed assets stands above long-term historic average levels in many end markets. There is, therefore, a growing impetus for businesses to invest in new capacity and equipment.
Labour shortages and still-low rates of productivity add to the need to replace human capital with machinery. Meanwhile, corporates have de-geared to conservative levels in Europe and have the benefit of a one-off boost thanks to tax reform in the US, producing favourable financial conditions for investment.
Financial conditions have arguably been easy for a while, with a low cost of debt relative to history giving companies greater optionality to invest in higher risk or lower-returning projects. Corporates have, until recently, chosen to de-lever or route spare capital towards share buybacks, which indicates confidence in end markets is a bigger driver in capital allocation than capital abundance.
With global corporate profits and business confidence likely to remain high, this virtuous circle underlies our belief that global capex spending is back. Last year marked the first year of capex growth since 2013, with global business spending tracking a 7 per cent annual increase; we expect gains to persist this year.
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Read more:
Emerging markets race ahead after a decade in the doldrums
Finance guru Andrew Hallam’s new guide for expats wanting to become wealthy
What does 2018 hold for your investment portfolio?
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From an investment perspective, the stock market will not reward capex growers indiscriminately. Investors must disaggregate business spending to identify sectors and businesses spending defensively, for example, to fight against disruptive competition or higher regulatory costs, and those that deploy capital accretively to tap into incremental top-line opportunity.
Another group that is well positioned for a sustained capex cycle is value chain beneficiaries. Regardless of the type of capex (ie defensive or growth-oriented), such businesses could prosper from others spending.
When picking stocks that can benefit from a revival in global capex, we see opportunities across most end markets but have a particular preference for industrials. Industrial companies have rerated relative to the market, but a premium valuation can be supported by superior top line delivery. In addition to a favourable revenue outlook, we seek out businesses that have other drivers to supplement profit delivery, for example, restructuring.
Finally, investors must not overlook the longer-term structural shifts taking place in the way corporates spend. Within capex, a bias towards automation and intangible investment has been building for some years – with software spending taking a larger share of the wallet at the expense of physical equipment. Technology companies are, unsurprisingly, positioned to benefit from further secular disruption across a wide range of end markets, while semiconductor businesses can also capture the cyclical upswing.
Grace Peters is the global equities strategist at JP Morgan Private Bank
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
OPTA'S PREDICTED TABLE
1. Liverpool 101 points
2. Manchester City 80
3. Leicester 67
4. Chelsea 63
5. Manchester United 61
6. Tottenham 58
7. Wolves 56
8. Arsenal 56
9. Sheffield United 55
10. Everton 50
11. Burnley 49
12. Crystal Palace 49
13. Newcastle 46
14. Southampton 44
15. West Ham 39
16. Brighton 37
17. Watford 36
18. Bournemouth 36
19. Aston Villa 32
20. Norwich City 29
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
BULKWHIZ PROFILE
Date started: February 2017
Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
Size: 50 employees
Funding: approximately $6m
Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Crops that could be introduced to the UAE
1: Quinoa
2. Bathua
3. Amaranth
4. Pearl and finger millet
5. Sorghum
Seemar’s top six for the Dubai World Cup Carnival:
1. Reynaldothewizard
2. North America
3. Raven’s Corner
4. Hawkesbury
5. New Maharajah
6. Secret Ambition
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%204-cyl%20turbo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E190hp%20at%205%2C600rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E320Nm%20at%201%2C500-4%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10.9L%2F100km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh119%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Like a Fading Shadow
Antonio Muñoz Molina
Translated from the Spanish by Camilo A. Ramirez
Tuskar Rock Press (pp. 310)
'THE WORST THING YOU CAN EAT'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
The specs: 2018 Mazda CX-5
Price, base / as tested: Dh89,000 / Dh130,000
Engine: 2.5-litre four-cylinder
Power: 188hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 251Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.1L / 100km
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs: 2018 Maxus T60
Price, base / as tested: Dh48,000
Engine: 2.4-litre four-cylinder
Power: 136hp @ 1,600rpm
Torque: 360Nm @ 1,600 rpm
Transmission: Five-speed manual
Fuel consumption, combined: 9.1L / 100km
SPECS
Engine: 4-litre V8 twin-turbo
Power: 630hp
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: 8-speed Tiptronic automatic
Price: From Dh599,000
On sale: Now
What is 'Soft Power'?
Soft power was first mentioned in 1990 by former US Defence Secretary Joseph Nye.
He believed that there were alternative ways of cultivating support from other countries, instead of achieving goals using military strength.
Soft power is, at its root, the ability to convince other states to do what you want without force.
This is traditionally achieved by proving that you share morals and values.
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
